William Power
One Apple analyst, 7 different price targets in 12 months
January 28, 2013: 3:35 PM ETWilliam Power's opinions about Apple are as changeable as a baby's bottom
FORTUNE -- On Sunday, Baird Equity's William Power lowered his Apple (AAPL) price target for the second time in four days. That got me wondering how often he changes his mind about the company.
The answer, it turns out, is a lot: by my count, seven times in the past 12 months.
Starting at $500 last January, Power took his clients all the way to $750 a share in September -- just before the stock began a four-month nosedive.
His current price target, following last week's "hard reboot," is $465 -- $285 below the 12-month target he set in September and $35 below the target he set a year ago.
Power not the only analyst whose forward-looking price targets have become trailing indicators, but if there's another Apple analyst with less courage of his convictions, I haven't found him.
For the record, here are Power's calls for the past year:
- Jan. 25 2012: Raises price target to $550 from $500 (+10%). "Record iPhone Sales Drive Q1 Blowout."
- Feb. 15, 2012: Raises to $600 (+9%). "Dividend Coming?"
- March 19, 2012: Raises to $700 (+16.6%). "Raising Estimates on Strong iPad Demand"
- April 25, 2012: Raises to $740 (+5.7%). "What iPhone Concerns?"
- Sept. 13, 2012: Raises to $750 (+1.4%). "iPhone 5 Announced"
- Jan. 24, 2013: Lowers to $570 (-24%). Hard Reboot; Maintain Outperform Rating"
- Jan. 28, 2013: Lowers to $465 (-18.4%). "Say It Ain't So; Downgrading to Neutral"
-
24% of Americans surveyed plan to buy the new iPad
29% of international respondents hoped to buy it within 3 months
One of the first things they teach you in Statistics 101 is that the size of your sample doesn't matter as much as how representative it is.
In that regard, it's probably a good thing that Baird's William Power acknowledges high up in the note he issued to clients Monday that the online survey of 488 potential customers Baird Equity Research MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 26, 2012 11:02 AM ET -
Where in the world Apple sells the most iPhones
The European market has been gaining on the U.S., but Asia is coming on fast
When Baird's William Power initiated coverage of Apple (AAPL) Thursday with a price target of $410, he backed his predictions with an unusually thorough 82-page report to clients that is chock-a-block with useful charts and graphs. The one above shows at a glance how important Europe has become as a market for the iPhone and MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 6, 2010 10:54 AM ET
