It's a piece of cake, he says. Just take the company's revenue guidance and add 15%
In a 5,000-word essay posted in Bullish Cross Monday, Andy Zaky laid out his method for estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings numbers. He starts with three assumptions:
That most Wall Street analysts and financial writers are completely clueless and couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag
That the earnings guidance numbers Apple issues each quarter MORE
After a spectacular IPO, LinkedIn's stock has lost nearly half its value. Yet it's still trading at 300 times its 2012 earnings. So why are Wall Street analysts recommending you buy it?
By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE -- The fears of another technology-stock bubble that prevailed in the first half of the year have faded away in the second half as a concerns about Europe's financial stability took the speculative wind out MOREDec 12, 2011 12:07 PM ET
The creator of Asymco.com is looking for 67% growth in sales and 91% in earnings
Like most independent analysts, Asymco's Horace Dediu got clobbered last quarter when Apple (AAPL) reported earnings that grew by "only" 52%. (See chart at right).
As a result, the best estimates last quarter turned out to be those submitted by the Wall Street analysts with the worst Apple track records. (See our Q4 2011 Earnings Smackdown here.)
But MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 9, 2011 7:54 AM ET
What do these three have to do with one another? Frank Rich finds a thread
"Nothing has revealed how much the class warriors of the right and left of our time have in common," writes Frank Rich in the Oct. 23 issue of New York Magazine, "than the national outpouring after Steve Jobs's death."
Rich, who left his high-profile perch on the OpEd page of the New York Times earlier this year to be MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 6, 2011 3:00 PM ET
Investors were caught off guard by results at Amazon and Netflix. Truth is, if they'd been paying closer attention, they'd have seen it coming.
By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE – This fall's earnings season is starting to look like hunting season for big-name web companies. First, Netflix drops 35% in one day, Tuesday, after heavy subscriber losses and warning investors that it would lose money for a few quarters next year. Then MOREOct 26, 2011 3:17 PM ET
Wall Street's first Apple evangelist -- and the former chairman of Compaq -- reminisces
The 140-word Wikipedia entry on Benjamin M. Rosen hardly does him justice. For more than a decade -- starting in 1980 when he left Morgan Stanley and co-founded Sevin Rosen Management -- Ben Rosen was personal computing's most influential power broker, a visionary financier who backed dozens of high-tech start-ups, including Compaq, Citrix, Cyprus, Lotus, Silicon Graphics MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 23, 2011 8:21 AM ET
We're averaging the Q4 estimates of the six analysts with the best track records
The chart at right, which compares Apple's (AAPL) reported earnings for the past six quarters with estimates made in advance of those reports, shows that some analysts are better at predicting the company's results than others.
Specifically, a group of independent analysts we've been calling -- for lack of a better term -- "the bloggers," have consistently out-performed MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 17, 2011 7:11 AM ET
The Street's consensus: 11.4 million. The indies are 15% more bullish
In preparation for our Apple (AAPL) earnings smackdown for the last fiscal quarter of 2011, which ended in September, we've gathered estimates from the small army of analysts -- institutional and independent -- who track the stock.
Last Tuesday we previewed their revenue and earnings estimates. The next day it was their iPhone unit sales numbers. Today we look at their estimates for Apple's fastest-growing product MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 16, 2011 5:00 AM ET
The Street is looking for a falloff in sales. The amateurs are looking for a blowout.
I expect Apple (AAPL) to report two important iPhone statistics next week.
The first, the number of iPhone 4S units sold this coming weekend, the company won't know until after midnight Sunday. The other, the number of iPhones sold last quarter, it already has in hand.
In this post, I'm going to look at the second number, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 12, 2011 2:20 PM ET
With Q4 earnings due next week, the pros and the bloggers are $3.9 billion apart
It has become, for the Street, an embarrassing quarterly tradition.
The Apple (AAPL) independent analysts -- a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs -- file estimates that look, by Wall Street's standards, outrageously optimistic.
But as the day of reckoning approaches -- in this case, Tuesday Oct. 18, when Apple is scheduled to announce its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 11, 2011 2:13 PM ET
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