37 years of computer history in three graphs, two blogs and a podcast
The chart above, one of three that Horace Dediu has posted on Asymco.com over the past two days, and which he discussed on his Critical Path podcast Wednesday, takes some explanation.
First, it's on a log, not a linear scale, so every unit on the Y-axis represents an exponential increase in the number of units shipped. Second, it's counting all MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 19, 2012 7:53 AM ET
33 of 46 analysts expect Apple to meet or beat that mark in its quarterly report next week
One of the big computer news stories last quarter was the continued strength of Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales even as the rest of the PC industry was shrinking. (See Mac sales zigged as Windows PC sales sagged in Q4.)
How well did the Mac do? We put the question to our two groups of analysts MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2012 2:28 PM ET
With Q1 earnings due next week, the Street and the bloggers are now $4.5 billion apart
Perhaps professional analysts are just more comfortable underestimating Apple (AAPL). Perhaps they're still smarting from last quarter, when their numbers (for once) came in too high. Perhaps they're suspicious of reports that suggest that Mac and iPhone and iPad sales have never been so strong.
For whatever reason, Wall Street's estimates for what everybody seems to agree MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 16, 2012 8:25 AM ET
Reports from Verizon and AT&T suggest they could be off by as much as 45%
UBS' Maynard Um has built a spreadsheet for Apple (AAPL) in which he assumes the company sold 30 million last quarter -- some 800,000 unit higher than the 29.2 million average of 20 Wall Street analysts we polled over the weekend.
But when he totes up the sales numbers coming in from Apple's U.S. carriers, his 30 million estimate MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 5, 2012 6:30 AM ET
Mark your calendars for what's expected to be a monster quarter
Apple (AAPL) investor relations has scheduled a conference call with analysts on Tuesday, Jan. 24 at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) to discuss its first fiscal quarter results.
Given last summer's pent-up demand for the new iPhone that was finally released in October, this should be a big one.
The Street's consensus, as reported Tuesday by Thomson Reuters, is for earnings MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 4, 2012 8:01 AM ET
If you ask about sales in the quarter that just ended, you get two very different answers
How did Apple (AAPL) do in the quarter that ended Saturday?
That depends whom you ask.
The consensus among nearly four dozen professional analysts, according to Thomson Reuters, is that Apple will report record earnings of $9.83 on record sales of $38.17 billion, up 52.8% and 42.7%, respectively, from the same quarter last year.
No way, say MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 2, 2012 8:18 AM ET
Horace Dediu tells the story. The narrative is fictional, but the numbers, sadly, are real.
In masterpiece of analytical satire, Asymco's Horace Dediu on Thursday recreated the thought processes that led Wall Street's top analysts to grossly underestimate Apple's (AAPL) earnings every year since 2005.
Their performance would be laughable if it didn't materially affect Apple's share price. But the numbers these analysts come up with form the "consensus" that determines the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 16, 2011 8:16 AM ET
It's a piece of cake, he says. Just take the company's revenue guidance and add 15%
In a 5,000-word essay posted in Bullish Cross Monday, Andy Zaky laid out his method for estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings numbers. He starts with three assumptions:
That most Wall Street analysts and financial writers are completely clueless and couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag
That the earnings guidance numbers Apple issues each quarter MORE
After a spectacular IPO, LinkedIn's stock has lost nearly half its value. Yet it's still trading at 300 times its 2012 earnings. So why are Wall Street analysts recommending you buy it?
By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE -- The fears of another technology-stock bubble that prevailed in the first half of the year have faded away in the second half as a concerns about Europe's financial stability took the speculative wind out MOREDec 12, 2011 12:07 PM ET
The creator of Asymco.com is looking for 67% growth in sales and 91% in earnings
Like most independent analysts, Asymco's Horace Dediu got clobbered last quarter when Apple (AAPL) reported earnings that grew by "only" 52%. (See chart at right).
As a result, the best estimates last quarter turned out to be those submitted by the Wall Street analysts with the worst Apple track records. (See our Q4 2011 Earnings Smackdown here.)
But MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 9, 2011 7:54 AM ET
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