The difference in their quarterly forecasts has never been so great
In the three and a half years that I've been pitting the analysts who cover Apple (AAPL) for Wall Street against the growing cadre of independent analysts who do it for fun (and, presumably, their own profit), I've never seen a gap this big -- either in dollar or percentage terms.
According to Thomson/First Call, the published consensus of 42 professional analysts MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 1, 2012 8:16 AM ET
But even at $600 a share, the company's stock price still seems out of whack
Apple's (AAPL) second fiscal quarter ends Saturday, and although the market spent Friday morning knocking the stuffing out of its share price (Apple fell back below $600 in mid-morning trading), Wall Street remains bullish on Tim Cook's company.
How do we know? We've watched the analysts' Q2 estimates for Apple climb more than 24% in the past MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 30, 2012 11:40 AM ET
There is a precedent: iPhone sales have doubled, on average, every year since 2007
The chief difference between the independent analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) and their counterparts on Wall Street is that the independents put a premium on being right.
The professionals, with all due respect, seem to care more about not over-promising or straying too far from the consensus. (See here, here and here, for example.)
So investors who want informed MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 22, 2012 5:20 AM ET
We'll find out Monday, one half hour before the market opens
Tim Cook has scheduled a conference call for 9 a.m. EDT Monday to answer the question Wall Street has been asking -- repeatedly, and with increasing insistence -- for years: What does the company plan to do with its enormous stockpile of cash and marketable securities, worth just under $100 billion as of the last quarterly report.
Mr. Market will be MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 18, 2012 7:23 PM ET
As of Wednesday morning Morgan Stanley's and Oppenheimer's were under water
Most sell-side Apple (AAPL) analysts are conservative in their earnings estimates but bullish in their price targets. According to Thomson/First Call, the Street high target this week is $700 and the median is a dollar short of $600. (The independent analysts are even more optimistic; the biggest number we've seen is Robert Paul Leitao's $790.)
But with Apple topping $525 in heavy MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 15, 2012 10:48 AM ET
Like the tortoise in Achilles' footrace, they may be perpetually unreachable goals
"There's scant evidence that the stock market itself has paid much if any attention to analysts' price targets in recent years," writes Needham's Charlie Wolf in a note to clients Thursday that raises his own Apple (AAPL) target $80 to $620.
He's got a point. the average target among the two-dozen analysts we sampled on October 19, the day after Apple's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 9, 2012 9:14 AM ET
Two ways of seeing how well (or badly) the pros and amateurs predict Apple's earnings
We've been trying for several years to find the best way to show how much better the so-called amateur analysts (some of whom have since gone pro) are at estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings than the Wall Street professionals who do it for the big banks and brokerage firms.
Now Asymco's Horace Dediu, who is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 6, 2012 10:59 AM ET
Apple's earnings grew 116% in Q1. So why is the Street is looking for 44% in Q2?
After Apple (AAPL) blew past everybody's expectations on Tuesday, reporting sales up more than 73% and earnings up nearly 116%, analysts up and down Wall Street rushed to revise their spreadsheets and issue new notes to clients. We got our hands on 39 of them -- plus a note from one analyst that his MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 28, 2012 1:28 PM ET
What to make of those pesky forward-looking statements in today's earnings report
It used to be that traders rewarded or punished Apple's (AAPL) shares right after its earnings releases based not on the sales it reported for the past quarter, but on what the company said about the quarter to come. Apple tends to "guide conservatively," in the jargon of the trade, which Wall Street often interpreted as a disappointment.
But that MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 24, 2012 7:24 AM ET
The 18% gap between the Street's estimates and the independents' suggests that it can
Last fall, a Wall Street analyst who shall remain nameless suggested in a note to clients that the days of the big Apple (AAPL) earnings surprises may be over.
He was referring to the string of quarterly reports in which the company beat the Street's estimates by measures so wide they were (or should have been) an embarrassment MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 22, 2012 2:38 PM ET
|Stocks finish higher for fourth straight week|
|Prison exclusive: Bernie Madoff can't sleep|
|Signs of new housing bubble in several areas|
|Windows Phone surpasses Blackberry for third place in smartphone shipments|