FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales haven't been hurt as much as Windows PC's have by the rise of tablets and smartphones. But Mac shipments peaked in late 2011, and the best Apple can probably hope for now is that they hold up better than everybody else's.
The analysts we polled in advance of Monday's fiscal fourth quarter earning report don't expect much from the Mac this time around.
Of the 43 we've heard from so far -- 22 professionals and 21 amateurs -- nobody except maybe FBN's Shelby Seyrafi thinks Mac sales actually grew year-over-year last quarter, and I have to believe he rounded up to get to 5 million. (See below.)
The average unit sales estimate among all 43 analysts is 4.26 million Macs, down 13% from last year's 4.92 million. In a reversal of their usual roles, the pros (at 4.35 million) are more bullish than the amateurs (4.17 million).
Seyrafi's 5 million is the high estimate. Independent Ovi Popescu has the low at 3.6 million.
We'll find out who was nearest the mark Monday after the markets close.
Below: The individual analyst's estimates -- pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks as always to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
The analysts' estimates range from 29 million to 38 million. Average: 33.4 million.
FORTUNE -- This is the number that matters.
The iPhone not only brings in the lion's share of Apple's (AAPL) revenue (51.4% in Q3), but it is rapidly replacing the Mac as the hub around which the rest of Apple's product line revolves.
Apple surprised Wall Street in the June quarter. The Street was expecting less than 5% unit sales MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 25, 2013 10:38 AM ET
The analysts' forecasts range from 17 million to 32 million. Median estimate: 24 million
FORTUNE (Vang Vieng, Laos) -- Sales of Apple's (AAPL) iPad grew from zero to 7.3 million units in 2010 and doubled in 2011 to 15.4 million.
According to our most bullish independent analysts, they doubled again in calendar 2012.
According to the most bearish professional -- Argus Research's Jim Kelleher -- they grew (once you factor out 2011's extra MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 11, 2013 6:39 PM ET
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