Turley Muller

Another Apple blowout quarter. Once again, the Street blew it

July 20, 2011: 4:19 AM ET

But an amateur -- a Romanian mathematician teaching in Paris -- nailed the numbers

Click to enlarge.

This story never gets old.

An army of Wall Street analysts, backed by the computing power of some of the world's richest banks and brokerage houses, have once again been out-foxed and out-analyzed by rag-tag bunch of bloggers, amateurs and independent investors.

A glance at the chart at right, which lists the 48 analysts we polled in advance of Apple's Q3 earnings report by the accuracy of their estimates for revenue and earnings, will give you the basic picture. With a few exceptions, the pros (in red) were wrong and the amateurs (in blue) were right. As a group, the amateurs were twice as accurate in their predictions as the pros.

Near the bottom: Mighty Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

At the top: Nicolae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris and hangs out at a small investor site called Traderhood. He correctly predicted Apple's (AAPL) 82% growth in sales, its triple digit growth in earnings, its 140% growth in iPhone sales and its 180% growth in iPad sales.


Current Issue
  • Give the gift of Fortune
  • Get the Fortune app
  • Subscribe
Powered by WordPress.com VIP.