FORTUNE -- The chart at right represents the worst case scenario for Apple's (AAPL) share of the global smartphone market, as forecast Monday by Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi.
Using Apple's own numbers for fiscal Q2, Sacconaghi calculates that iPhone sales grew 7% year over year in a sell-in basis (12% in a sell-through basis) while the overall smartphone market grew by about 36%. The net result is that Apple's share of the global smartphone market fell from 23% last year to 17% share this year -- the largest year-over-year decline in the iPhone's history, according to Sacconaghi.
The situation won't get any better by June, he figures. Based on Apple's fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, he estimates Apple will sell about 25 million iPhones in the current quarter (down 4% year over year). If the overall market grows 30%, Apple's share will fall to 12.3%. If it grows 36%, Apple's share falls to 11.7%.
"Perhaps most startlingly," he writes, "if Apple does not introduce a new iPhone or lower-priced phone in CQ3 [Apple's fiscal Q4], it is quite possible that iPhone's smartphone market share could drop into the single digits."
Given this dire prospect, how can Sacconaghi maintain a $600 price target for Apple and an Outperform rating? He offers several "perspectives." Quoting from his note to clients:
Bernstein's Apple analyst says investors are expecting the equivalent of a 4.5% yield.
FORTUNE -- According to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple's (AAPL) top brass has been holding "widespread discussions" with key investors to get input on its plans to return more of its $137.1 billion cash hoard to shareholders.
Sacconaghi has been debriefing those investors and now thinks he has a pretty good idea of how Apple's cash management plans have MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 15, 2013 11:20 AM ET
Topeka's Brian White is sticking with $888. Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi is still at $725.
FORTUNE -- After a string of analysts dropping their price targets in lockstep with Apple's (AAPL) falling shares, it's refreshing to hear from a couple of guys who haven't lowered their targets. Or at least not lately.
Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi ($725, down from $800 last December) weighed in Tuesday with his views on the much-rumored Apple iWatch. He's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 19, 2013 12:53 PM ET
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty thinks Apple should borrow to pay its shareholders
FORTUNE -- While Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn was lobbying shareholders Thursday to support his perpetual preferred stock idea (see Would you buy an iPref from this man?), Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has been meeting with the Apple (AAPL) executive who rejected Einhorn's proposal last September: Chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer.
In a note to clients Friday, Huberty reports that she MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 22, 2013 6:47 AM ET
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
The numbers Apple issues tend to be laughably conservative; the company always prefers to under- rather than over-promise. Nonetheless its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 24, 2012 8:15 AM ET
And re-sold it to consumers for billions more than it paid, according to Toni Sacconaghi
The only difference between a 16 GB iPhone 4S and the 32 GB model is 16 GB of NAND flash memory, for which Apple (AAPL) charges customers $100.
But according to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple buys that memory for a heavily discounted price of $0.67 per gigabyte, or a total $10.72.
That's a pretty sweet mark-up. And an MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 6, 2012 11:39 AM ET
Bernstein's top Apple analyst joins the chorus questioning the stock's dismal valuation
Last week, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty noted that Apple's (AAPL) current stock price suggests that the market is expecting the company's earnings to grow minus 2% in perpetuity. (See here.)
In the first of a two-part series, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi on Monday drilled a little deeper into that -2% growth rate and found a series of what he calls "fantastically MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 13, 2011 7:58 AM ET
CapEx spending is up 9 fold in 3 years, the bulk on equipment for a few key suppliers
When Apple (AAPL) reports an uptick in its cash and marketable securities holdings -- up $5.4 billion to $81.6 billion last quarter -- Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi can usually be counted on to call for the company to return some of that cash to the shareholders (70% of whom happen to be institutions like MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 15, 2011 8:12 AM ET
Sanford Bernstein's top Apple analyst is dubious about Steve Jobs' television dreams
Analysts have been arguing for ages about whether Apple (AAPL) is ever going to enter the $118 billion/year flat-screen TV market. But two things have changed in the past month:
1. Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs quotes him as saying he's "finally cracked" the problem of controlling an integrated cloud-based television.
2. The Siri system that Apple introduced on MORE
The payoff should Apple prevail in the patent wars: an estimated $30 billion
In a note to clients issued Thursday, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi takes a hard look at the flurry of patent lawsuits Apple (AAPL) has launched against the manufacturers of Google (GOOG) Android phones.
All in all, he likes Apple's chances. The two key bullet points (we quote):
We anticipate that Apple will push its legal claims hard and unrelentingly and believe MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 28, 2011 12:50 PM ET
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