The creator of Asymco.com is looking for 67% growth in sales and 91% in earnings
As a result, the best estimates last quarter turned out to be those submitted by the Wall Street analysts with the worst Apple track records. (See our Q4 2011 Earnings Smackdown here.)
But the factor that held down Apple's sales last quarter -- customers waiting for the new iPhone 4S -- created a pent-up demand that is expected to drive record earnings and revenue this quarter.
How big a record? That's the $40 billion question. Dediu, an independent with an unusually large following (see here), filed his Apple estimates for Q1 2011 on Friday, along with explanations of how he arrived at them. You can follow -- and comment on -- his reasoning here.
His numbers (with year/year growth in percentages):
For the record, the current consensus on Wall Street, according to Thomson Reuters, is for Apple to report earnings of $9.75 on revenues of $37.99 billion -- more than $6.6 billion less than Dediu's estimate. Last quarter, the Street was right and Dediu was wrong. I wouldn't bet on that happening again anytime soon.
With Q4 earnings due next week, the pros and the bloggers are $3.9 billion apart
It has become, for the Street, an embarrassing quarterly tradition.
The Apple (AAPL) independent analysts -- a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs -- file estimates that look, by Wall Street's standards, outrageously optimistic.
But as the day of reckoning approaches -- in this case, Tuesday Oct. 18, when Apple is scheduled to announce its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 11, 2011 2:13 PM ET
For as long as we have been tracking them, the bloggers have trounced the pros
On Sunday, the day after Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter of fiscal 2011 ended, we posted preliminary revenue and EPS estimates from both Wall Street's Apple analysts and a group of amateurs we've been tracking for a couple of years.
After we posted the chart, one reader who calls himself jmmxx suggested that it would be more interesting to see how MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 26, 2011 7:19 AM ET
Between the company, the Street and the amateur analysts, a range of $9.4 billion
Apple's (AAPL) fourth fiscal quarter of 2011 ended Saturday, and depending whose estimates you believe, it was either a ho-hum quarter or a record-smasher.
The chart at right shows the actual revenue and earnings per share for the previous 11 quarters -- Q1 2009 through Q3 2011. In the last three columns we've plotted three pairs of data MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 25, 2011 5:18 PM ET
The largest collection of amateur analysts sees iPhone sales up 110%, iPads up 155%
Apple (AAPL) will report its earnings for the June quarter on July 19, two weeks from today. The current consensus among Wall Street analysts, according to Thomson Financial, is that the company earned $5.69 per share on sales of $24.67 billion, up 62.1% and 57.2%, respectively.
Impressive as those growth rates might sound, they're anemic compared with what MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 5, 2011 3:20 PM ET
If you ask about sales in the quarter that just ended, you get three very different answers
Apple's (AAPL) third fiscal quarter of 2011 ended Saturday at midnight. How did it go? That depends whom you ask.
In April, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer told analysts he expected Apple to earn $5.03 per share on sales of $23 billion. But given how Apple tends to low-ball its forward-looking guidance, nobody really believed him.
The MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 26, 2011 11:34 AM ET
Despite strong sales, iPad supplies and Japan's quake make Q2's report a hard one to call
Nobody, not even CFO Peter Oppenheimer, thinks that Apple (AAPL) earned as little as $4.90 per share on revenues of $22 billion last quarter -- the numbers he offered in January when he issued his guidance for the company's second fiscal quarter of 2011.
As usual in the Steve Jobs/Tim Cook era, the game at the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 20, 2011 8:31 AM ET
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