Jefferies' Peter Misek takes a deep dive into the problem of acquiring quality content
Amid all the chatter this week about Apple's (AAPL) putative plans to build a standalone TV set -- from Best Buy's leaked customer survey to the Globe and Mail's report that Canadian telcoms are already testing the thing in their labs -- the 23-page report produced by Peter Misek's team at Jefferies International stands out.
Rather than get distracted by speculation about whether it would be controlled by voice, keyboard, arm waving or all three, Misek focuses on the nut that will be the toughest for any Web-TV manufacturer to crack: how to deliver a critical mass of the best content to its users when and where they want it -- which it to say, anytime, anywhere.
Misek raises and dismisses three approaches Apple's deal makers might take -- creating content, seeding content, buying exclusive access -- to zero in on what he believes will be the most likely: buying non-exclusive rights in a way that doesn't make Hollywood's content owners nervous.
"We think an iTunes-type model is the most likely scenario as Apple will pay less for non-exclusive content, provide access to a broader range of content (creating a better user experience) and package everything with a superior user interface and ecosystem. We believe Apple thinks it can win on a level playing field for content."
Sounds simple, but it gets pretty complicated. Below the fold: Misek's summary of five scenarios by which Apple could acquire non-exclusive content, with their pros and cons.
The hardware is the easy part. The trick is to get Hollywood on board
"Apple enters markets to reinvent them," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients Tuesday reiterating his oft-repeated conviction that Apple's (AAPL) next big thing is an Apple-branded television set.
To be sure, Munster has scaled back his expectations since he predicted that the company would sell 6.6 million Apple TV set-top boxes in 2009 and MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 1, 2012 7:02 AM ET
As rumors of a "real" Apple TV heat up, ideas that could upend the industry resurface
Photo: Michael Copeland
In late 2009, the Wall Street Journal ran a story that sent shivers through the television industry.
Quoting unnamed sources familiar with Apple's (AAPL) negotiations, the Journal reported that CBS (CBS) and ABC (DIS) were seriously considering Steve Jobs' plan to offer TV subscriptions over the Internet.
One form those subscriptions might take, according MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 28, 2011 4:23 PM ET
He laid out the reasons NOT to build an Apple television at All Things D in 2010
Jobs at All Things D8
There's been a lot of talk about Apple (AAPL) launching a full-fledged interactive television ever since Walter Isaacson quoted Steve Jobs saying he'd "finally cracked it."
But before the company can successfully market such a product, it must overcome the formidable hurdles that Jobs laid out the year before he died at MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 23, 2011 8:28 AM ET
There's a lot more to the relationship than the rumors of an Apple-branded TV suggest
Source: Jefferies
Credit AllThingsD's John Paczkowski for finding the most headline-worthy nugget in the report issued Tuesday by Jefferies analyst Peter Misek on his recent trip to Japan.
The thrust of Paczkowski's story -- Apple Television Could Be Ready for Commercial Production by Feb. 2012 -- was echoed Wednesday by more than a dozen writers who had only his brief item to MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 24, 2011 8:53 AM ET
He had the audience in stitches at a 1998 convention of higher education IT directors
Steve Jobs' thoughts about television evolved in the years since this fuzzy YouTube video was shot at CAUSE 1998, the annual convention of the College and University Systems Exchange. But even then -- one year after his return to Apple (AAPL) -- he was clearly wrestling with the problem of trying to merge TVs and PCs.
The four-minute segment is part MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 18, 2011 11:15 AM ET
Sanford Bernstein's top Apple analyst is dubious about Steve Jobs' television dreams
Sacconaghi's vision of Apple TV 3.0. Click to enlarge.
Analysts have been arguing for ages about whether Apple (AAPL) is ever going to enter the $118 billion/year flat-screen TV market. But two things have changed in the past month:
1. Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs quotes him as saying he's "finally cracked" the problem of controlling an integrated MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 4, 2011 12:18 PM ET
The solution Steve Jobs said he "finally cracked" could be a $6 billion business by 2014
Click to enlarge. Source: www.patentlyapple.com
In a note to clients released Monday, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster seizes on remarks attributed to Steve Jobs in the biography published overnight as "another data point" to support a thesis he's been championing since 2009.
"I'd like to create an integrated television set," Jobs told Walter Isaacson, his authorized biographer. MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 24, 2011 6:22 AM ET
An analyst may have put her finger on the conversational interface's killer app
Photos: Apple Inc., TV Guide. Funky Photoshopping: PED
In a note to clients issued Friday, Cross Research's Shannon Cross pivots from the Steve Jobs eulogies to take a closer look at Siri, the natural language interface that Apple (AAPL) unveiled the day before he died.
In particular, she singles out an application that wasn't in Scott Forstall's demos or MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 9, 2011 8:02 AM ETSpeculation and rumors about an Apple-branded television are rampant. Here's what most of them don't get right.
FORTUNE -- Thanks to Apple's famous secrecy, when it comes to the company's plans for future products, there's always more speculation than information.
That's the case with whatever Apple (AAPL) might be cooking up for television. It's obviously doing something, but nobody can quite tell what it is. Steve Jobs has publicly stated the company's MORE
Dan Mitchell, contributor - Sep 15, 2011 10:11 AM ETEvery morning, discover the companies, deals and trends in tech that are moving markets and making headlines. SUBSCRIBE
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