FORTUNE -- To simplify the chart at right -- drawn from data sent to clients Tuesday by Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley -- I've left out Nokia (NOK), Research in Motion (BBRY), Motorola (GOOG), Sony (SNE), LG and HTC.
That's because between them, Apple (AAPL) and Samsung shared virtually all the profits made selling mobile phones -- smart and not-so-smart -- over the past year and a quarter.
With the exception of BlackBerry (which turned a small profit one quarter) and HTC (three quarters), all the other major players in the game either broke even or lost money. (Those losses explain why in several quarters Apple's and Samsung's shares added up to more than 100%.)
Apple continues to collect far more of the industry's profits than its market share (8% in 2012, by Canaccord's estimate) would suggest. But according to Walkley, its run of taking the lion's share of those profits may soon come to an end.
"During the June quarter," he writes, "we believe softer iPhone sales combined with Samsung Galaxy S4's global ramp should result in Samsung surpassing Apple for the top share of handset industry profits."
Below: Canaccord's income and profit spreadsheet.
From a 14.3% share of the global market in September to a 20.3% share in December
A note to clients issued Tuesday by Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley had good news and bad news for Apple (AAPL) investors.
The bad news, which we reported here, was that he expects sales of Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire to cut sharply into the iPad's dominance of the worldwide market for tablet computers, reducing its unit MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 7, 2011 8:03 AM ET
Estimates the iPad's share will drop from 74% to 53.2% by the time Christmas is over
The chart above is what Canaccord Genuity's T. Michael Walkley thinks the worldwide tablet market will look like this quarter after Amazon gets through disrupting it by selling a few million Kindle Fires at or below cost.
In a note to clients issued Tuesday, he estimated that ...
Apple's (AAPL) share of units sold will drop MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 6, 2011 2:57 PM ET
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