Susquehanna
The Apple semiconductor analyst who keeps crying wolf
December 20, 2012: 2:45 PM ETFor clients of Susquehanna's Christopher Caso, it's deja vu all over again
From Barrons.com. Click to enlarge.
FORTUNE -- Kudos to Asymco's Horace Dediu for spotting the similarity between the two Barrons' headlines at right, one from Dec. 20, 2012, the other from Nov. 11, 2011 -- 13 months earlier.
Both are based on notes by Susquehanna semiconductor analyst Christopher Caso. Both warn clients that signals from his supply chain sources tell him that Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales are going to come up short of the Street's expectations.
Last year's prediction turned out to be spectacularly wrong, as Apple reported blow-out fiscal Q1 earnings on the strength of iPhone sales that grew 128% year over year.
That hasn't stopped Caso from trying again this year. Or, apparently, some traders from taking his second warning seriously. With the Dow trading higher and Apple's shares already down 25% from this year's highs, the stock was stuck in negative territory nearly all day Thursday.
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Pre-Christmas chatter about iPhone supply constraints
Apple is selling iPhones as fast as it can make them, but that may not be fast enough
A pair of analyst reports Tuesday warn that Apple (AAPL) may be having trouble feeding the demand for iPhones in advance of the holiday selling season.
In a note entitled "Limited near-term upside for iPhone," Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar alerted clients that low yields on an unidentified "key component" is likely to constrain production MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 29, 2011 6:59 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Ashok Kumar, iPhone, iPhone 3GS, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S, Jeff Fidacaro, Rodman & Renshaw, Susquehanna -
Apple's 'jaw-dropping' third quarter: The analysts weigh in
A sampling of reactions to Apple's (AAPL) profits growing 125% year over year
IDC's Al Hilwa: "Apple's growth in the third quarter was simply jaw-dropping. In 20 years of following tech I have seen very few companies in the $90 to $100 billion run-rate and none that have produced 80% organic quarterly growth. The success of the iPad truly crystallizes the point that we are living in an era of rapid MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 20, 2011 5:46 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Barclays, Barclays Capital, China, Deutsche Bank, IDC, iPad, iPhone, iPod, Morgan Stanley, Needham, Piper Jaffray, Quarterly earnings, Susquehanna -
iCloud: What the analysts say
The sell-side analysts liked the show. The market, not so much.
With one exception (ahem, J.M.P.'s Alex Gauna), the analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) seemed to understand what the traders who drove Apple's shares down Monday $5.40 (1.57%) to $338.04 did not: The hundreds of improvements in its software ecosystem -- big and small -- that Apple announced Monday could, in the long run, sell more devices, convert more customers, and make MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 7, 2011 8:18 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Deutsche Bank, iCloud, iOS, iPad, iPhone, iTunes, Mobile, MobileMe, PCs, Piper Jaffray, RBC, Steve Jobs, Susquehanna, Tablets -
How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?
Analysts' estimates range from nearly 20 million to less than 13.25 million
Apple's second fiscal quarter, which ended March 26, was a tricky one for analysts trying to figure out how many iPhones the company sold.
Sales of cell phones and other electronic gadgets usually fall off after the holidays. But on February 10, smack in the middle of the quarter, Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone for Verizon (VZ), which should have MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 7, 2011 12:05 PM ETPosted in: Analysts, Apple, Earnings Smackdown, Financial, Goldman Sachs, iPhone, Mobile, Susquehanna -
iPad 2: The analysts weigh in - updated
Pleased to see Steve Jobs, wowed by the device's performance, fearful for the competitors
A sampling of analysts' reactions to Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 event. By midday Thursday we'd received 20 reports.
Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner: The just unveiled iPad 2 offers the kind of incremental improvements consumers have come to expect from a second-generation Apple device. While it doesn't include any new breakthrough features or functionalities, the sum total of its refinements MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 3, 2011 10:44 AM ET -
Susquehanna ups AAPL target to $465
Expects sales of 76.7 million iPhones and 32.1 million iPads in fiscal 2011
[Needham's Charlie Wolf also raised his price target Monday, to $450 from $375, and Ticonderoga's Brian White reiterated his $550 target. By 10 a.m. Apple was trading above $350 for the first time.]
In his first Apple (AAPL) supply chain check since Verizon (VZ) iPhone pre-sales began, Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro has raised his Apple price target (to $465 from MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 7, 2011 7:37 AM ET -
iPad supply catching up to demand
Shipping delays have quietly shrunk from 5-to-7 business days to 3-to-5 days
[UPDATE: As of Monday, Aug. 23, iPads were shipping within 1-to-3 business days.]
The iPad shortages that delayed the launch of the iPad 3G and pushed back the international roll-out by a month have finally started to ease.
In a note to clients issued Wednesday, Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro notes that iPad shipping delays, which Apple.com listed as 7-to-10 business days MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 18, 2010 8:32 AM ET -
iPhone launch: 2-3 million, says analyst
The release of the iPhone 4 next weekend is shaping up as one for the record books
Topping all estimates we've seen so far, Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro issued a note to clients predicting that next weekend could be a "2 mln - 3 mln iPhone event" -- two to three times bigger than the launches of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 3G and 3GS in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
He cites both the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 18, 2010 10:46 AM ET -
How data caps help RIM, hurt Apple
Plans that charge for high usage could scare people away from the iPhone, says an analyst
AT&T (T) did it first in the U.S., and then O2 followed suit in the U.K. last week -- lowering monthly charges for light data use and instituting tiered pricing for the bandwidth hogs.
That's good news for Research in Motion (RIMM), says Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro in a note to clients issued Monday. He believes MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 14, 2010 11:01 AM ET
