By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE – The iPhone has been, by many measures, one of the most successful products in business history. Nearly 200 million iPhones have been sold in four and a half years, 37 million of them in the last three months of 2011. Apple's market cap has soared from $104 billion in June 2007, when the first iPhone was sold, to $480 billion today.
No doubt, the iPhone is a revenue machine. Last quarter, it generated $24.4 billion in revenue for Apple (AAPL), greater than the $20.9 billion Microsoft (MSFT) made in all of its various businesses. It is, to say the least, obscenely profitable: iPhones make up 75% of the profits of cell-phone makers, despite being only 9% of all units shipped.
Less visible in such soaring statistics, is the impact on the mobile carriers. Even with the heavy subsidies phone companies must pay to Apple and some five years after its introduction, the iPhone may well be the best thing going for the mobile industry.
Even though AT&T (T) has lost its exclusive status with the iPhone, it's likely to keep fighting for iPhone customers. According to Hudson Square Research, iPhone users have a net present value -- a measure of cash flows over a product's lifetime -- that is twice as high as subscribers using the old, clamshell feature phones.
MORE: Apple just doubled its addressable market in China
The smartphone, as conceived by Apple, seems designed to generate carrier fees. Unlike the standard feature phones, which are primarily used for phone calls and text messages, iPhone users also pay for wireless data connections. AT&T has raised data fees and introduced costlier tiers for heavy users. And many users find they are making fewer phone calls, even though their monthly phone rates are remaining steady.
That's all true for other smartphones too, of course. But more than any other device, the iPhone is responsible for inspiring all those categories of fees -- voice, texting, data -- as well as the class system of data usage. By influencing the look and operability of other Google (GOOG) Android and other smartphones, the iPhone had a broader impact on the wireless industry as a whole. "We believe that without the iPhone, the wireless industry would look very different today -- smartphones would still be a niche product, average revenue per user would be about $15 lower, and the service would be mostly commoditized," Hudson Square analyst Todd Rethemeier recently wrote.
For Sprint (S), which began selling the iPhone 4S last fall, the iPhone has been something close to a lifeline. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the iPhone helped Sprint see a net gain of 161,000 subscribers, well below AT&T's net gain of 717,000 and Verizon's 1.2 million but the first quarter of net gains in a year. Sprint said 40% of customers buying iPhones were new, perhaps drawn by its unlimited data plans.
Sprint's CEO Dan Hesse has been vocal about the importance of having an iPhone among the company's smartphone offerings. "Having the ability to sell the iPhone removes the number one reason people had churned in recent years," Christopher Larsen, a Piper Jaffray analyst wrote after a meeting with Hesse. "It is also important to have for the customers who remained at Sprint knowing that the carrier would one day carry the device."
MORE: Intel's (latest) mobile comeback
But there's a catch. AT&T is down 26% from the day it started selling the iPhone. Sprint is down a depressing 52% since it began selling the iPhone. And Verizon (VZ), (buttressing the adage that single-letter tickers are bad luck for stocks these days) is up 8% since it began selling iPhones a year ago.
And herein lies the double-edged sword of the iPhone for carriers. Apple earns its fat profit margin largely because people love the iPhone, but also because of the subsidies it wrings from carriers -- by some estimates 40% higher than those of other smartphones. And all carriers, Verizon, Sprint and AT&T, are investing heavily in LTE networks to accommodate the next generation of high-bandwidth smartphones.
So yes, analysts are bullish on Sprint because it's stemming the flow of subscribers who crave an iPhone. But they are also concerned that subsidies and other expenses of network investments will easily cost Sprint $15 billion over the next four years. And yet Sprint doesn't have any choice but to spend that money. Because it could die without the iPhone.
It's not just Sprint who lives by that double-edged sword. A report this week from Morgan Stanley said AT&T's profit margins fell to 28.7% from 37.6% a year earlier, thanks largely to the subsidies it must pay to Apple for selling millions of iPhone 4S's. And even Verizon's margins fell to 42.2% in the most recent quarter from 47.5% in the same period.
MORE: Nielsen: 66% of Americans ages 24-35 own a smartphone
The costs of subsidies and LTE networks are so weighing on AT&T that it's looking to shed off its non-core assets, like wired lines in rural areas. They are still profitable, but will eat into profit margins as each quarter passes.
You might ask why Verizon's profit margin is so much higher than AT&T's (let alone Sprint's, which posted an operating and net loss last quarter). That's because the subsidies that Verizon has negotiated with Android device makers gives it between $100 an $200 more per device than the iPhone does.
But even Verizon knows it can't thrive without the iPhone. Thanks to Google and Samsung and Research-in-Motion (RIMM), there are some great alternatives to the iPhone. But buying them doesn't save you any money. Buy an iPhone on Verizon and your money goes to Apple. Buy an Android phone, it goes to Verizon.
And judging from the reception of the iPhone 4S, this smartphone is the consumer's choice for now. If you're a mobile carrier, you have to sell it. If you do, the iPhone will be your ticket to the future. But it's going to cost you.
But 55- to 64-year olds who make more than $100,000 a year are big buyers too
"Whether or not you have a smartphone is closely related to both how old you are and how much money you make," finds a Nielsen survey of 20,000 Americans with mobile phones conducted in January. I quote:
While overall smartphone penetration stood at 48 percent in January, those in the 24-34 age group showed the greatest MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 20, 2012 9:00 AM ET
Between October and Christmas, Apple's U.S. sales nearly caught up to Android's
Click to enlarge. Source: Nielsen
Three findings stand out in Nielsen's December survey of the U.S. mobile phone market, released Wednesday:
Among recent smartphone buyers, 44.5% of those surveyed in December bought an Apple (AAPL) iPhone, up from 25.1% in October
57% of new iPhone buyers said they chose the iPhone 4S over the less expensive iPhone 4 or iPhone 3GS
Android's MORE
Google's U.S. market share continues to grow against Apple, but at a much slower pace
Data: ComScore. Charts: PED
"In case you needed more proof that Android is walloping iOS," writes Steve Kovach in Thursday's Business Insider, "ComScore's three-month report on mobile subscribers (ending in November) is out."
He points out, as others have, that Apple's (AAPL) smartphone market share grew a bit, from 27.3% to 28.7% over the past three months. But, he writes, MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 30, 2011 6:42 AM ET
Source: Flurry Analytics. Numbers in millions.
Using data from 140,000 smartphone apps running on devices all over the world, Flurry Analytics has created a fascinating series of graphs showing ...
Which countries have purchased the most Apple (AAPL) iOS and Google (GOOG) Android devices
How many people in each country can afford a smartphone but haven't yet purchased one
Which countries are the most mature (in terms of smartphone penetration)
Finally, the chart MORE
Mixed results from a 12-week Kantar Group snapshot of the walk-up to Christmas
Samsung Galaxy S II
The launch of the iPhone 4S lifted Apple's (AAPL) share of the smartphone market rather dramatically the U.S., the U.K. and Australia between early September and the end of November.
But Apple lost ground just as dramatically against less-expensive Google (GOOG) Android phones on the economically troubled continent, according to results released Thursday by the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 22, 2011 6:20 AM ET
Not the knockout blow Steve Jobs sought; Google has until April to find a workaround
Apple (AAPL) has won a partial victory in an intellectual property case that Steve Jobs had famously vowed to fight to his "last dying breath."
The U.S. International Trade commission ruled Monday that the software in some of HTC's Android smartphones violated one provision of an Apple patent and that those phones would no longer be allowed into the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 19, 2011 5:46 PM ET
Teenage females lead the way, averaging 3,952 messages per month. (Males: 2,815.)
Click to enlarge.
Although teenage females (does anyone still call them girls?) lead the way in texting, teenage males consume more data. Analyzing the monthly cell phone bills of roughly 65,000 mobile subscribers, Nielsen discovered that males age 13-17 took in 382 MB per month while their female counterparts used 266 MB.
Overall, mobile data usage among teens of both sexes was up 256% MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 15, 2011 11:37 AM ET
Apple is the top manufacturer (28.6% share), Android the top operating system (44.2%)
Click to enlarge. Source: Nielsen
Nielsen (NLSN), which is fighting hard to be for mobile media what it was for television, pulled out all the stops in its State of the Media report for the third quarter of 2011.
Drawing on monthly surveys of 25,000 Americans (300,000 per year), it found, among other things:
44% now carry smartphones. Ownership is highest MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 15, 2011 9:00 AM ET
83% of the apps downloaded in the past month were for a Google or Apple phone
Click to enlarge. Source: Nielsen
The U.S. smartphone market is starting to look like a two-horse race, judging from data scheduled to be released Wednesday by a Nielsen general manager at AppNation III in San Francisco. Among the new findings:
44% of all U.S. mobile subscribers now own a smartphone
56% of the mobile phones purchased in MORE
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