FORTUNE -- The attached chart comes from UBS's Steven Milunovich, who on Tuesday raised his Apple (AAPL) price target $110 (from $540 to $650) and his rating (from Neutral to Buy) in large part because of the gap between the blue line and the blue shaded area in the attached chart. The gap shows big money from pension funds and other institutional investors fleeing Apple last spring and summer.
"While Apple's stock has improved," Milunovich writes, "institutional ownership has not recovered. It peaked at about 73% in April 2012 and has fallen to under 64%. Our sense speaking with investors is that many are now equal or underweight Apple relative to their benchmark, which could result in new money supporting the stock."
"It is a confusing time. However, Apple generally is on the right side of secular trends in that SMAC technologies (social, mobile, analytics, cloud) mostly benefit the company. Social and mobile increase demand for its devices while analytics and cloud support back-end services. Also, the consumerization of IT plays to its advantage. Apple has competitive challenges, but the industry wind is at its back. As a result, we expect investors will continue to move money from legacy vendors to Apple's stock." (Emphasis his)
Meanwhile, we're left with this puzzle: If pension funds have been dumping the stock since April, how did Apple's share price manage to climb out of a deep hole and recover all its 2013 losses?
Apple climbed $36.27 (7%) in three and a half days amid early signs of an iPad Christmas.
FORTUNE -- "I think it's going to be an iPad Christmas," Tim Cook told analysts last month, and it looks like he may be right.
Apple (AAPL) shares closed at 556.07 Friday, up $37.37 (7%) for the week amid signs that tablets were among the hottest sellers at the start of the 2013 holiday buying frenzy, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 30, 2013 11:07 AM ET
Apple shares soar on improved prospects for the quarter that ends Saturday.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) PR had a busy morning Monday, issuing two market-moving documents:
A press release announcing that it has sold more than 9 million new iPhones, 80% better than 5 million iPhone 5 units it sold last last year.
An SEC Form 8K alerting the commission that those 9 million sales represents a material change in the company's prospects for its MORE
Four times out of six, investors have sold the rumor and bought the news.
FORTUNE -- What's Apple's (AAPL) share price going to do over the next 12 months if, as widely expected, the company unveils a pair of new iPhones on Tuesday?
Conventional wisdom says that Apple traders buy the rumor and sell the news, but the series of stock charts Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore shared with clients Monday suggest the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 9, 2013 6:50 AM ET
Two tweets, 3 minutes, $9 per share.
FORTUNE -- If there were such a thing as a empty Over-the-Counter calories, this is what they would look like.
At 2:21 p.m. Tuesday someone using the Twitter account @Carl_C_Icahn -- presumably the corporate raider/hedge fund manager himself -- issued the first of a pair of tweets:
That was followed four minutes later by this:
Apple's (AAPL) shares, which had been trading at $475.77, did what stocks MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 13, 2013 3:13 PM ET
Some strange doings in Apple's share price while the markets were asleep.
FORTUNE -- Can anybody explain what happened to Apple (AAPL) between the close of trading Friday and Monday's opening bell?
I can almost wrap my mind around the 4.55 million shares traded at exactly 4:00 p.m. Friday and the temporary $3.08 drop one clock tick later. A bunch of Apple weekly options had just expired, and the market had a ton of MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 29, 2013 12:10 PM ET
Is there no limit to how much value Wall Street can take out of the stock?
FORTUNE -- In the fall of 2000, when you could buy Apple (AAPL) for $7, the stock's value measured by how much profit it was generating for each outstanding share -- the famous PE ratio -- hit an all-time low of 5.76, according to Wolfram Alpha (see chart below).
On Friday morning, when the stock touched MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 19, 2013 8:27 AM ET
Waiting for Tim Cook to increase Apple's dividend yield? Today the market did it for you.
FORTUNE -- There is no shortage of theories why Apple (AAPL) -- already at a 453-day low Tuesday -- fell another $28.13 in mid-day trading Wednesday to touch $398.11, wiping out all of 2012's gains.
Among the reasons we've heard:
Notes from Goldman Sachs and Lazard Capital predicting "below consensus guidance" for the June quarter next week MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 17, 2013 11:37 AM ET
Two company valuations that passed in the night
FORTUNE -- Who would have guessed a week ago that the thing that would lift Apple (AAPL) out of its winter doldrums would be the unveiling of its fiercest competitor's whizzy new flagship device?
But that's what happened.
The day after Thursday evening's big event at Radio City Music Hall -- where Samsung introduced the Galaxy S4 in a faux-Broadway production that garnered mostly negative reviews MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 18, 2013 4:10 PM ET
It's only in the past year that Samsung has (handily) outpaced Apple
FORTUNE: "Samsung's stock doesn't trade on US exchanges," writes the Bespoke Investment Group, "so hardly anyone here even looks at the stock."
Well, Bespoke did, and it produced the 10-year (above) and one-year chart (below). They show that over the long run, Apple (AAPL), as Bespoke put it, "crushed" Samsung.
Lately, however, not so much.
Thanks to Barrons' Tiernan Ray for spotting the report.Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 14, 2013 2:58 PM ET
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