Charlie Wolf: Apple's iPad is clearly cannibalizing PC sales

The impact is being felt first, says the analyst, in the home and education markets

Source: Needham. Click to enlarge.

FORTUNE -- Although Mac shipments grew faster than the overall PC market in calendar Q3 for the 25th quarter in a row, Needham's Charlie Wolf sees cause for concern in latest data.

In his regular quarterly review of Apple's (AAPL) Mac business, he notes:

• The difference in Mac vs. PC growth rates -- up 1.9% for the Mac compared with down 2.5% for all PCs, including Macs -- is smaller than in previous quarters
• Mac shipments to education fell 0.1% while overall PC sales to schools fell nearly 13.9% -- the first definitive evidence, Wolf writes, that the iPad is cannibalizing PC sales in the U.S. (Apple sold nearly 1 million iPads to U.S. schools in the quarter.)
• Overall PC shipments to the home rose 1.1% worldwide in Q3 while Mac shipments to the home fell 4.6%, an outsized decline Wolf attributes to delays in the Mac upgrade cycle.
• The best news for the Mac: It continues to thrive in the business market. Mac units grew 56.6% in the U.S. even as overall PC sales fell 8.8%s. Worldwide, Mac business shipments increased 22.1% compared with a 4.5% decline in overall business sales.

"Notwithstanding its premium prices compared to the prices of Windows PCs," Wolf concludes, "we expect that the Mac will continue to grow faster than the PC market, propelled by the twin halo effects emanating from the iPhone and iPad."

Below: Three more charts from Wolf's report.

Posted in: Apple, iPad, Microsoft, PCs, Schools, Tablets, Windows

• Apple's iTextbooks: 3 days, 8 titles, 350,000-plus downloads

  An impressive start, but how many of those 350,000 downloads were freebies? 

  Apple (AAPL) certainly got the attention of educators and the educational publishing community with the iPad textbook initiative it announced last Thursday. And no wonder. It's been a long time since anybody lavished that kind of attention and glitz on what has traditionally been an unglamorous -- albeit highly profitable -- corner of the book industry.

  The first measure of MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 23, 2012 3:08 PM ET
  Posted in: Apple, IBook, iBook Author, iBookstore, iPad, Mac App Store, Publishing, Schools, Tablets, Textbook

• How much of the school tablet market belongs to Apple?

  100% according to a survey of educational technology directors conducted in October

  In the wake of Apple's (AAPL) iPad textbook announcement Thursday, it might be useful to take a second look at Piper Jaffray's October survey of 25 school technology directors. The sample is small, concedes Gene Munster, who conducted the survey, but so is the population IT decision makers in U.S. schools.

  Among his findings:

  Apple has a virtual lock on the MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 20, 2012 6:33 AM ET
  Posted in: Amazon, Android, Apple, Education, Gene Munster, Google, iPad, Kindle Fire, Piper Jaffray, Schools, Textbooks

• No more iPads for New York City teachers?

  The schools' ActiveSync networks are now off limits to new Apple and Android tablets

  In January, according to the New York Times, the NYC public school system -- the largest in the U.S. -- joined the latest educational technology bandwagon and spent $1.3 million to buy 2,000 iPads for classroom use.

  On Nov 10., the Department of Education's IT department slammed on the brakes.

  In a memo addressed to all the city's principals, MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 2, 2011 6:32 PM ET
  Posted in: ActiveSync, Android, Apple, DOE, Education, Exchange, Google, iPad, Microsoft, NYC, Schools, Tablets

• iPads in schools: 'The last generation with backpacks'?

  In survey, 16% of school tech directors expect to have 1 tablet per student within 5 years

  Whether counting heads at the Apple Store or buttonholing cell phone users at the Mall of America, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster is the master of the small survey that may or may not be significant.

  His latest: A survey of 25 educational technology directors at a conference on integrating technology in the classroom. "While our sample MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 31, 2011 4:30 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Education, Gene Munster, Google, iPad, PCs, Piper Jaffray, Ron Johnson, Schools, Tablets

• Apple finds a use for some of those first-generation iPads

  Donates thousands to teachers in America's poorest schools

  Teach for America might sound like a fun way to spend a couple years after college, but it's a pretty tough gig. With just five-weeks training, recent graduates -- many from America's most elite colleges and universities -- are thrown into classrooms in some of the country's meanest, most-impoverished public schools.

  Into this improbable mix Apple (AAPL) has just added a few thousand iPads.

  It's MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 20, 2011 2:22 PM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Education, iPad, Katie Remington, Laurene Powell, Schools, St. Louis, Steve Jobs, Tablets, Teach for America