FORTUNE -- With six years to think about the question, many Apple (AAPL) analysts have already placed their bets for how many extra iPhones Apple is likely to sell in China now that the deal with China Mobile (CHL) has been announced.
In theory, Apple just increased its addressable market in the world's largest cellphone marketplace by 760 million potential customers. But many of those China Mobile subscribers have already purchased a smartphone. And among the rest, most can neither afford an iPhone or live near enough to one of China Mobile's high-speed base stations to take full advantage of the device's capabilities.
That gives analysts a lot wiggle room -- especially analysts who offered a range of numbers -- as you can see by the attached spreadsheet. The Street's consensus so far: Apple will sell or ship (analysts are vague on that) 18 million incremental units in 2014. We'll add more numbers as they come in.
Apple surprised everybody with first weekend sales of the iPhone 5S and 5C.
FORTUNE -- If any of the dozens of Wall Street analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) predicted that the company would sell more than 9 million new iPhones over their first three-day weekend, we didn't get the memo.
Here's a sample of what the analysts are saying now. More as they come in, new ones on top.
Bill Shope, Goldman Sachs: Strong MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 23, 2013 10:43 AM ET
An early sign that Apple may have erred when it set the price of the iPhone 5C so high.
FORTUNE -- Two weeks ago, before Apple (AAPL) introduced this year's crop of new iPhones -- a higher-priced model (the iPhone 5S) and a lower-priced one (the 5C) -- the pundits assumed that customers around the world would be lining up to buy the cheaper one.
The pundits couldn't have been more wrong -- MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 23, 2013 7:29 AM ET
Apple posted record quarterly sales and got a one-day bounce in the stock market. Amazon posted its third quarterly loss in a row and hit an all-time record high.
FORTUNE -- In November, the last time we compared Apple's (AAPL) and Amazon's (AMZN) price-to-earnings ratios -- the simplest and most widely used metric to gauge the relative value of a pair of stocks -- Apple's trailing PE was 13 and Amazon's was MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 29, 2013 5:08 AM ET
Apple's iPad sales grew 65%. Samsung's shipments, according to IDC, grew 280%.
FORTUNE -- How do you make the fact that sales of Apple's (AAPL) iPad grew 65% -- from 11.8 million to 19.5 million -- look bad?
You bury it under a headline that points out, as several reports did, that its market share dipped below 40% for the first time.
The data come from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker, which took iPad MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 1, 2013 7:45 PM ET
1) iPhone sales are soft. 2) Yields improved. 3) Apple is clearing the way for a new model
FORTUNE -- At least five analysts lowered their Apple (AAPL) price targets in the past few days based on reports that the company reduced some iPhone supply chain orders for early 2013: UBS' Steve Milunovich (to $700 from $775), Citi's Glen Yeung ($575 from $675), Canaccord's T. Michael Walkley ($750 from $800), Mizuho's Abbey Lamba ($600 MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 17, 2012 11:06 AM ET
Record first-weekend sales suggest a strong Chinese New Year for Apple
FORTUNE -- On Friday, UBS's Steven Milunovich wrote that "some of [his] Chinese sources do not expect the iPhone 5 to do as well as the iPhone 4S." Two days later, Citigroup's Glen Yeung wrote that reports of supply-chain order cuts "bring into question the strength of iPhone 5."
That was before Apple (AAPL) announced that it sold more than 2 million MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 17, 2012 7:45 AM ET
With refreshes across 80% of its product line, Apple devices are hot Black Friday sellers
FORTUNE -- There was a lot of chatter about Apple (AAPL) in the sales reports for Black Friday 2012.
Topeka Capital's Brian White ran down the 7% to 31% discounts in Apple's Black Friday "Come and Give It" sale -- the only day of the year Apple offers deals on any of its products. "We believe this MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 23, 2012 10:21 AM ET
The latest: Share price tracks sales growth, and AAPL hits $600 in 2013
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty believes Apple's (AAPL) revenue most closely tracks how much it spends on new equipment (in MBA terms, CapEx ex-retail stores). Her chart looks like this:
By that formula, Apple's revenues will hit $183 billion by the end of fiscal 2012.
Asymco's Horace Dediu has drilled a little deeper into Apple's capital expenditures. He believes Apple's sales MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 8, 2011 9:17 AM ET
In Japan, its profits grew 1,156% between 2005 and 2010. Europe's were up 1,518%
"Apple's international sales are simply on fire"
So wrote the Motley Fool's Erik Bleeker Monday in a piece assessing Apple's (AAPL) overseas demand.
It is, as he puts it, exploding.
This will come as no surprise to anyone who has been following COO Tim Cook's Q&As with analysts, where he's been highlighting Apple's growth in the Japanese and Asia Pacific MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 28, 2011 7:38 AM ET
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