Revenues
What Gartner says privately about Apple's next 3 years
May 15, 2013: 11:43 AM ETIn a note to buy-side analysts, it suggests Apple will easily beat the Street's consensus.
FORTUNE -- Not being a Gartner client or an analyst on the investment side, I've never been privy to the reports it sends its paying customers. But the spreadsheet above arrived in my inbox uninvited, and I figured I might as well share it with you.
It comes from Andrew Neff, an analyst with the research firm's Gartner Invest team which, according to his e-mail, "puts Gartner research into context for the institutional investor."
What's most striking about his spreadsheet is the gap between Gartner's extrapolations and the Street's expectations (taken from Capital IQ).
- For 2013, for example, the Street is looking for revenue growth of 5.3%, while Neff has it growing 22.6%.
- For 2015, the situation is reversed. The Street's expecting 22.9% growth and Gartner only 11.1%.
Take the 2016 estimate (8.3% revenue growth) with a grain of salt. I'm not sure anybody can see that far ahead into Apple's future.
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3 theories of Apple's growth
The latest: Share price tracks sales growth, and AAPL hits $600 in 2013
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty believes Apple's (AAPL) revenue most closely tracks how much it spends on new equipment (in MBA terms, CapEx ex-retail stores). Her chart looks like this:
By that formula, Apple's revenues will hit $183 billion by the end of fiscal 2012.
Asymco's Horace Dediu has drilled a little deeper into Apple's capital expenditures. He believes Apple's sales MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 8, 2011 9:17 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Bill Maurer, Earnings, Horace Dediu, iOS, iPad, iPhone, Morgan Stanley, Revenues, Sales, Seeking Alpha -
How big was Apple's biggest quarter?
The fourth in a series of previews of Apple's results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010
Two weeks ago we sampled analysts' expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, iPod and Mac sales in the fiscal quarter that ended Dec. 26.
Today we look at the bottom line -- revenue and earnings per share -- for what Wall Street expects to be Apple's biggest quarter ever.
This exercise is a bit more complicated because MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2010 5:09 AM ET
