FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Thursday, RBC's Amit Daryanani used Strategy Analytics' market research to estimate what a $300 iPhone 5C might do to Apple's (AAPL) bottom line.
Even with the heavily discounted iPhone 4 in the mix, only 2% of Apple's unit sales so far have come from iPhones selling for less than $300. (Samsung, by contrast, gets 60% of its smartphone sales from devices that cost $300 or less.)
Daryanani thinks that could change after next week's special event:
"We believe Apple is going to capitalize on the low-end smartphone market by launching a new phone that will address what we consider to be a ~500M total addressable market in CY14E. In our view, AAPL should be able to quickly penetrate this market up to and beyond the 15% mark in the medium-term (we estimate AAPL has 40%+ share in the premium market).
"From an EPS perspective we believe the Company can add $4.00+ in EPS to our CY14E estimate of $39.74, with a successful launch of an affordable iPhone. On a 12x multiple, this would add roughly $50 to Apple's stock-price. We believe our ~56M unit estimate is conservative given that it represents 12% of the total low-end Smartphone market."
A relatively small price cut, it seems, can make a big difference
In a proprietary survey conducted last fall and released Wednesday, RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky asked some price-sensitive customers who said they had no intention of buying an iPad whether a $100 price cut might change their minds.
Among 1,100 respondents, 17% said they would be "somewhat likely" to buy a $399 iPad and 3% said they would be "very likely" to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 8, 2012 11:45 AM ET
Pent-up demand for the new Kindle is even stronger than for the iPad 2
In a note to clients issued Thursday, RBC's Mike Abramsky shares the results of a ChangeWave survey of 2,600 early adopter types. Two key findings:
5% of those surveyed said they had pre-ordered or were very likely to buy Amazon's (AMZN) new Kindle Fire, exceeding the 4% who said they were very likely to buy the original iPad MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 9, 2011 8:38 AM ET
Demand for the iPad is also rising, according to data from a ChangeWave survey
RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky has raised his fourth quarter iPhone and iPad estimates based on the results of a survey of 2,200 potential buyers. The survey, conducted in August by ChangeWave research, showed what Abramsky called "unprecedented iPhone 5 demand and strong back-to-school iPad buying intentions."
In a note to clients issued Tuesday he ticked off the main MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 13, 2011 8:23 AM ET
76% say they'll sign up for free e-mail; 30% for the $25/year music matching service
Apple (AAPL) is not a company known for giving things away for free, but when they do, people tend to respond positively. According to a survey conducted for RBC Capital the week after Steve Jobs' iCloud keynote:
76% of respondents said they were likely to sign up for iCloud, Apple's free e-mail, back-up and data syncing service
The sell-side analysts liked the show. The market, not so much.
With one exception (ahem, J.M.P.'s Alex Gauna), the analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) seemed to understand what the traders who drove Apple's shares down Monday $5.40 (1.57%) to $338.04 did not: The hundreds of improvements in its software ecosystem -- big and small -- that Apple announced Monday could, in the long run, sell more devices, convert more customers, and make MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 7, 2011 8:18 AM ET
Pleased to see Steve Jobs, wowed by the device's performance, fearful for the competitors
A sampling of analysts' reactions to Apple's (AAPL) iPad 2 event. By midday Thursday we'd received 20 reports.
Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner: The just unveiled iPad 2 offers the kind of incremental improvements consumers have come to expect from a second-generation Apple device. While it doesn't include any new breakthrough features or functionalities, the sum total of its refinements MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 3, 2011 10:44 AM ET
In two hours, Apple's smartphone breaks all the carrier's first-day launch sales
That didn't take long.
Verizon (VZ) announced Friday that it had halted pre-sales of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, having burned through its first shipment in less than a day.
It took only two hours -- from 3 a.m. to 5 a.m. EST Thursday -- for the company to sell more phones than any first-day launch in its history, according to Verizon Wireless MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 4, 2011 10:14 AM ET
Chatting with a Canadian analyst, Cupertino execs offer hints about Apple's future plans
Apple executives (AAPL) have strict rules about not discussing products that the company has not announced. But they'll talk about market opportunities, as three of them did on Thursday at a special event for RBC Capital. And sometimes that's enough to discern what direction the company is heading.
In a report to clients issued Friday, RBC's Mike Abramsky ticks MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 30, 2009 8:16 AM ET
Eight months ago, Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital both downgraded Apple (AAPL), triggering the company's worst selloff in eight years, a 23-point drop that lopped nearly $18 billion off its market cap.
RBC's Mike Abramsky reversed his position last month, raising his price target for Apple from $95 to $165.
On Tuesday Morgan Stanley's Kathryn Huberty followed suit, raising her target from $105 to $180 and sparking a rally that lifted Apple's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 26, 2009 12:43 PM ET
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