FORTUNE -- In the Apple (AAPL) Earnings Smackdowns we've been running every quarter for the past five years, the amateurs who follow the company tend to do better than Wall Street's professionals in quarters where Apple beats expectations.
And on Monday, with Apple reporting revenues, earnings and unit sales that were all better than the Street's consensus, the indies did it again.
Compared to some of their past disasters, the pros didn't do badly this time. But when ranked by the accuracy of their top- and bottom-line estimates, they gave nine of the top 10 spots to the amateurs.
Shout outs to:
And a raspberry to
CORRECTIONS: An earlier version of this story had a raspberry for Cantor Fitzgerald's Brian White based on a note he filed in September. I missed his Monday morning estimates, which were far more accurate. Janney Capital's Bill Choi most recent numbers also came to me late. The spreadsheets have been corrected and updated. My apologies to Mr. White and Mr. Choi.
Below the fold: Our annotated master spreadsheet, with the best estimates highlighted in bright green, the second and third best in light green, the worst in red and the second and third worst in pink.
Thanks one last time to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
Despite the report of lower earnings -- the third in a row -- a light at the end of the tunnel.
FORTUNE -- Once they wrapped their minds around the impact of deferred revenue on next quarter's gross margins, analysts came away from Monday's earnings report feeling mostly positive about Apple's (AAPL) prospects for 2014. A half dozen even raised their price targets.
Excerpts from the analysts' notes we've seen so far. MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 29, 2013 7:04 AM ET
Apple beat on sales of $37.5 and profits of $7.5 billion; shares dipped briefly after-hours.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) beat Wall Street's estimates pretty much across the board -- in sales, profits and units shipped. Earnings were down for the third quarter in a row, but that was as expected.
Apple closed at $529.88, up $3.92 (0.74%) for the day, but fell sharply in after hours trading. Traders may have been reacting to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 28, 2013 4:51 PM ET
Wall Street is looking for proof that Apple knows what it's doing.
FORTUNE -- Analysts are not looking for any big surprises this afternoon when Apple (AAPL) reports its earnings for the last fiscal quarter of 2013.
Sales are expected to be up slightly from last year and earnings down once again -- the first time in a decade income has fallen three quarters in a row. (See Final estimates for Apple's Q4 2013.)
Guidance MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 28, 2013 8:42 AM ET
The forecasts of 48 Apple analysts -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents
FORTUNE - The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in, and the results are mixed -- in more ways than one.
The consensus among the 48 analysts we've heard from -- 27 pros and 21 amateurs -- is that revenues were up (about 3%) in fiscal Q4 and earnings down (about 6%) year over year.
The spread between MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 27, 2013 6:00 AM ET
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