FORTUNE -- Of the nearly five dozen analyst's notes we gathered in advance of Apple's (AAPL) Q3 earnings report this afternoon, none were as colorful as Horace Dediu's.
The founder of Asymco.com presented his in the form of a "Padcast" -- a miniature, downloadable version of the kind of iPad-based interactive slide presentations he has been taking on the road to sold-out conferences in Amsterdam, San Jose and Chicago.
The image above, from the last frame of the presentation, is the money shot: The jagged rise and fall of Apple's top and bottom lines.
There's an irony in that steep peak on the left-hand side of the chart. It represents the spike in earnings Apple registered after it released the iPhone 3G. It also coincided with the collapse of Lehman Brothers. So even as Apple's bottom line grew 150%, its stock tanked -- falling 40% before it finally began to recover in 2009.
Apple's recent 40% drop is a different story. It preceded two quarters of negative earnings growth in which Apple -- without a new breakthrough product and facing stiffening competition -- failed to keep up with the previous year's 100%+ growth.
With a forward P/E below 10, the stock is currently valued, as Dediu often points out, as if Apple's best years are behind it and its pipeline is empty.
Link: Apple's 3Q FY13 Preview.
The forecasts of 59 Apple analysts -- 38 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents
FORTUNE -- The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in. The professionals are, as usual, more cautious than the amateurs -- but not consistently so (see iPods, Macs and iTunes).
Nobody, however, is expecting a blow-out quarter. Earnings estimates are down across the board -- anywhere from -7% year over year (according to independent Patrick Smellie MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 22, 2013 6:31 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 13.5 million to 22 million. The median is 18 million.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) refreshed its iPad line out of sequence last fall to capitalize on the holiday quarter, and as a result the company's June quarter came and went without a new iPad to sell for the first time since Steve Jobs unveiled the device in 2010.
So nobody should be surprised, especially with competition in the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 17, 2013 11:06 AM ET
Fine tuning estimates for what most analysts view as a transitional quarter for Apple.
FORTUNE -- We've started to get some last-minute revisions -- positive and negative -- in advance of Apple's (AAPL) fiscal Q3 earnings report, due out next Tuesday after the markets close.
Here are excerpts from a few early notes. More as they come in.
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty: iPhone Drives Jun Q Upside; Expect Conservative Guide. "We're positively biased into MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 17, 2013 2:51 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 23 million to 32 million. Median: 27 million iPhones.
FORTUNE -- This is the unit sales number that matters most to Apple (AAPL) -- the one for the product that accounted for nearly 53% of the company's total revenue in fiscal Q2.
And despite all the talk of a worldwide slowdown in high-end smartphone sales that followed the launch this spring of Samsung's Galaxy S4, the consensus MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 13, 2013 6:57 AM ET
Wall Street is looking for Apple to report zero revenue growth.
FORTUNE -- On April 24, the day after Apple (AAPL) reported its earnings for fiscal Q2, Cowan and Company's Matthew Hoffman published a revised forecast for the following quarter.
Talk about lowered expectations!
Based on the forward-looking guidance Apple gave analysts during the April 23 conference call, Hoffman cut his fiscal Q3 revenue estimate from $40.8 billion to $35.4 billion, a $5.4 billion MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 10, 2013 6:20 AM ET
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