FORTUNE --Peter Misek, the top Apple (AAPL) specialist at Jefferies, has taken a lot of heat lately on two fronts: From investors for his bearish stance on the stock, and from the tech press for starting a basket full of Apple rumors that didn't pan out. At one point this year Cult of Mac assembled A History Of Horrible Apple Predictions From Peter Misek.
But the truth about Misek is that he's neither a bear nor a bull. He's a just an impressionable guy who likes to travel a lot, reports just about everything he sees and hears, and comes back believing whatever he was told last. (See here, here, here and here.)
Case in point: The report he filed Monday -- after his most recent trip to Asia -- in which he flipped his Apple recommendation from Hold to Buy and raised his price target nearly 50%, from $405 (one of the lowest on the Street) to an above-consensus $600.
The report was a typical Misek travelog, complete with Japanese iPhone 5S availability posters and a trunkful of industry gossip.
Among the highlights:
Misek is about as confident about that last one -- the iPhone 6 with the jumbo screen -- as he was last year about the imminent arrival of what he now calls "this unicorn," an Apple HDTV.
But as even Cult of Mac acknowledges, Misek sometimes gets it right.
The average target for the analysts who cover Apple is closer to $550.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) shares were trading at $413.50 when Jefferies' Peter Misek wrote the note to clients over the weekend that lowered his 12-month price target from $420 to $405.
Misek has come a long way from last December, when we reported that he'd raised his iPhone estimates but lowered his price target from $900 to $800.
He's turned MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 24, 2013 10:45 AM ET
Today's bullish estimates can be tomorrow's "orders slashed due to weakening demand."
FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Monday, Jefferies' Peter Misek offered some intriguing numbers.
Based on checks with his network of Apple (AAPL) suppliers, he believes that the company plans to build iPhones at the rate of
25 to 30 million by the end of June
25 to 50 million more by the end of September
60 to 65 million more by MORE
This time it's Jefferies' Peter Misek, lowering his price target to $420 from $500
FORTUNE -- Not content to issue two negative reports on Apple (AAPL) in the space of two days last month (Apple is losing the screen-size war and Apple could face a rough two years), Jefferies' Peter Misak was back at it again Tuesday...
Cutting his fiscal Q2 iPhone estimate (to 35 million from 37.5 million)
Lowering his price target MORE
More bad news out of Barcelona from one of Apple's more bearish analysts
FORTUNE -- Following up on his Day 1 report out of this week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (see "Apple is losing the screen-size war"), Jefferies' Peter Misek posted a second note to clients Wednesday that offered four reasons that, as he puts it, "Apple is potentially facing a very rough two-year period":
Apple's capital expenditures are likely to double MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 27, 2013 10:47 AM ET
Jefferies' Apple specialist flew in from Asia with a sack full of predictions
FORTUNE -- There's a lot to digest in Peter Misek's note to clients Monday. Just back from a visit to some of Apple's (AAPL) Asian suppliers, Jefferies' managing director has a lot to say about the rate at which current products are being manufactured and what future products -- including the iPhone 6 -- are floating around in prototype MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 10, 2012 12:14 PM ET
After four years of speculation there's still not a shred of hard evidence
A lot of analysts talk about Apple's (AAPL) plans to make a television -- an actual TV set, not just a set-top box -- but last week, Jefferies' Peter Misek did something most have been careful not to do.
Citing "increased confidence" that Apple's iTV is coming, he wrote into his published forecasts the revenue from its sales: 2 million MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 17, 2012 4:30 PM ET
A giant solar array? An huge fuel cell facility? A second 500,000 sq. ft. data center?
I'm not sure I buy the main reason Jefferies' Peter Misek gave today for raising his Apple (AAPL) price target to $800 from $699: His "increased confidence" Apple is going to release the much-rumored iTV in the fourth quarter of 2012.
My own confidence that Apple is going to get into the television manufacturing business is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 5, 2012 11:42 AM ET
Ups his Apple price target $100 to $699 and 2012 iPhone sales from 145 to 155 million
It sounds like Peter Misek, Jefferies & Company's senior Apple (AAPL) analyst, had a productive trip to Asia. In a note to clients Monday, he summarized what he found:
Signs that Apple may be preparing to begin commercial production of a full-fledged television -- which he calls iTV -- around May or June for a MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 13, 2012 10:04 AM ET
Jefferies' Peter Misek takes a deep dive into the problem of acquiring quality content
Amid all the chatter this week about Apple's (AAPL) putative plans to build a standalone TV set -- from Best Buy's leaked customer survey to the Globe and Mail's report that Canadian telcoms are already testing the thing in their labs -- the 23-page report produced by Peter Misek's team at Jefferies International stands out.
Rather than get MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 7, 2012 11:29 AM ET
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