FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Thursday, Nomura's Stuart Jeffrey raised his estimates for smartphone sales in 2013, 2014 and 2015 by 13%, 16% and 14%, respectively.
But not for Apple (AAPL).
"Despite Apple commanding an 18% smartphone share," he writes, "we have not increased our Apple estimates."
The reason, he says, is that Apple's current crop of iPhones are "poorly aligned" with the factors that are driving smartphone sales growth.
Although Jeffery -- like most Apple analysts -- is convinced the company will launch a lower-priced iPhone before the end of the year, he expects the new phone's unsubsidized price will likely be $400 -- "too expensive to boost Apple's addressable market."
According to Jeffery, Apple's top brass has not yet caught on to these market trends.
"It tends to take companies 12–24 months to change product development plans once management realizes that changes are needed," he writes. "We thus see continued operational challenges for Apple until at least 2014."
Although Apple hit $446.16 in mid-morning trading Thursday, Jeffrey is sticking with his "neutral" rating and a 12-month price target of $420.
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