Expects average sales of Apple's "quasi-tablet for productivity users" to hit 700,000/quarter
In early April, J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz issued a glowing report on Apple's thinnest notebook computer in which he predicted that Apple would sell $2.2 billion worth of MacBook Airs in the next 12-18 months.
On Thursday he revised his estimates -- upward. Not only did the new models released last October sell like crazy in the Christmas quarter, but according to Moskowitz, that initial runrate seems to be sustainable. MacBook Air sales grew 2.9% the following quarter, compared to a 10% quarterly drop for the rest of the PC industry.
Apple shipped 432,000 MacBook Air units in calendar Q1 2011 and Moskowitz expects that to grow to an average 700,000 units over the next four quarters. At an average selling price of $1,500, that's $3.22 billion a year, which could tack another $0.30 on Apple's (AAPL) earnings per share.
"In our view," Moskowitz writes, "the MacBook Air increasingly will be recognized as offering users tablet-like functionality – ultra-portability, thinness, and instant-on – while offering an integrated keyboard and a full computing applications suite to complete professional work-related tasks. Given the underwhelming performance of the non-Apple tablets in the tablet market so far, we expect more PC vendors to shift focus to the ultra-thin notebook PC (based on SSD storage)."
Moskowitz rates the stock "Overweight" with a $450 price target. Apple opened Thursday at $326.79.
The web-based OS can still be a winner for Google if it can execute.
The word on the street today (and last week) is that Google's ChromeOS is delayed, or rather that devices running the new web-based OS aren't due until 2011. Google went on record in May saying there would be "devices" later this "fall".
"We are working on bringing the device later this fall," said Google vice-president of product management Sundar Pichai at MORESeth Weintraub - Nov 23, 2010 3:31 AM ET
Also getting cannibalized: iPod touches, eReaders, desktop PCs and handheld videogames
There's an interesting chart in a report to clients issued early Thursday morning by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty.
The subject of her report is last week's acquisition of Palm (PALM) by Hewlett Packard (HPQ). In Huberty's bull-case scenario, HP builds a tablet computer around Palm's WebOS that not only competes with Apple's (AAPL) iPad, but captures 15% of the tablet market.
What MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 6, 2010 6:45 AM ET
Will Apple's tablet usher in a new era of computing, or simply dominate it?
Chipmaker Nvidia is helping invent a slew of cool technologies that hold the potential to change the way we work and play. The company, which makes processors that enhance images and boost the brawn of computers and phones, is pushing 3-D entertainment into homes and high-def video onto handsets. But the gadget Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang is MOREMichael V. Copeland, Senior Writer - Mar 10, 2010 10:34 AM ET
Steve Jobs' second-in-command on AT&T, the TV business and Apple's "hubris"
Tim Cook, Apple's (AAPL) chief operating officer and the company's envoy to the business world, made his third appearance at a Goldman Sachs' (GS) technology conference Tuesday. Among the highlights of his wide-ranging Q&A:
On TV: Apple has no interest in the TV market; Apple TV is still a hobby, but his "gut" tells him that there's something there
On the Mac: MORE
The Jumbotron comes home --and the computer goes in the pocket.
Even before the recession began two years ago, people were talking about the need for Americans to downsize. What this means for the world of consumer electronics is unclear.
Our television screens just keep getting bigger and better. In 2009, the average screen size was 36 inches, up from 22 inches a decade ago.
For LCD and plasma screens greater than 60 MOREJessica Shambora, Writer-Reporter - Jan 15, 2010 6:00 AM ET
>Mason Cohn, Producer - Nov 20, 2009 1:20 PM ET
A few years ago rivals mocked Jonney Shih, chairman of Asustek, and his purse-size laptop computers. Millions of netbooks later, Shih is having the last laugh.
On a hillside above the Hsing Tian Kong temple in the northern reaches of Taipei, Jonney Shih sits on a wobbly stool next to an ornate low wooden table. Dressed in a taupe suit, white shirt, and silver tie emblazoned with jaguars, Shih, 57, cheerfully MOREMichael V. Copeland, Senior Writer - Nov 20, 2009 6:00 AM ET
>Mason Cohn, Producer - Oct 26, 2009 11:34 AM ET
Who'll win over consumers this holiday season? We test-drive the newest netbooks and notebooks.
This Christmas expect small computer overload -- so many options, so little time (and money). All the major computer manufacturers are coming out with lightweight 'net-connected laptops, and they're banking on big sales: The researchers at IDC expect some 160 million notebook computers to sell worldwide by the end of the year.
But which company will come out MOREKim Thai, contributor - Sep 22, 2009 6:00 AM ET
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