Morgan Stanley

Our Apple whisper numbers

Averaging the Q1 2012 estimates of the six analysts with the best track records

Whisper numbers, according to Wikipedia, emerge from widening cracks in the spreadsheets maintained by Wall Street analysts. Quoting an article by Daniel Svensson, the entry explains:

"When the estimate is first calculated by sell-side analysts, the number is submitted to companies such as First Call to be averaged with other analysts' estimates for the consensus earnings estimate. As MORE

Morgan Stanley: Apple may sell 190 million iPhones next year

A proprietary survey finds demand for iPads and iPhones much stronger than expected

The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.

iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to MORE

Sacconaghi: Apple's stock price reflects 'fantastically pessimistic assumptions'

Bernstein's top Apple analyst joins the chorus questioning the stock's dismal valuation

Last week, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty noted that Apple's (AAPL) current stock price suggests that the market is expecting the company's earnings to grow minus 2% in perpetuity. (See here.)

In the first of a two-part series, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi on Monday drilled a little deeper into that -2% growth rate and found a series of what he calls "fantastically MORE

Black Friday: Apple zigged while the PC market zagged

PC sales were down 8% Thanksgiving week, but demand for the MacBook Air was strong

In a note to clients Thursday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty rattled off several reasons to explain why retail sales of personal computers in the U.S. were down 8% year over year for the week of Nov. 20 to 26, as reported by the NPD Group.

Hard drive shortages, the lingering effects of flooding in Thailand
Price reductions in MORE

3 theories of Apple's growth

The latest: Share price tracks sales growth, and AAPL hits $600 in 2013

Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty believes Apple's (AAPL) revenue most closely tracks how much it spends on new equipment (in MBA terms, CapEx ex-retail stores). Her chart looks like this:

By that formula, Apple's revenues will hit $183 billion by the end of fiscal 2012.

Asymco's Horace Dediu has drilled a little deeper into Apple's capital expenditures. He believes Apple's sales MORE

Morgan Stanley: Apple's price implies -2% long-term growth

Katy Huberty weighs in on the question "Why is AAPL so cheap?"

"Market Significantly Underestimates Apple's C2012 Earnings Growth" reads the headline of Katy Huberty's contribution to a 45-page Morgan Stanley report to clients Wednesday summarizing what the bank expects to be the big "investor debates" of 2012.

Her headline is an understatement, judging from the text of her note on Apple (AAPL). "Several data points," she writes, "give us confidence that MORE

Morgan Stanley: What iPhone really needs is more carriers

The key to future sales growth is signing up new cellular operators, especially in Asia

In a series of well-researched charts, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has put her finger on the one factor -- all others being equal -- that really drives smartphone sales: The number of cell phone operators that sell the thing.

In a report issued to clients Sunday, Huberty shared the results of an analysis of 760 carriers in MORE

Morgan Stanley: Apple's share of world's largest PC market -- China -- set to grow from 5% to 21%

Chinese consumers rate Macs as most desirable, although only 7% can afford one

In August, according to IDC, China overtook the U.S. as the world's largest consumer of personal computers.

On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley issued the results of a survey suggesting that Apple (AAPL) is the best positioned of all PC manufacturers to capitalize on the boom.

Summarizing the results of a proprietary Alphawise survey of 1,553 consumers in 16 Chinese cities, Morgan MORE

Decoding Apple's $8 billion in capital expenditures for 2012

A huge uptick in planned spending has analysts scratching their heads

Once a year in its Form 10-K Apple (AAPL) reveals to the SEC -- and to investors -- how much it has set aside in the year ahead for so-called CapEx -- capital expenditures on land, buildings, machinery, equipment and leasehold improvements (i.e. retail stores).

In that regard, the 10-K the company filed last week was a doozy:

The Company anticipates utilizing MORE

Steve Jobs through Rosen-colored glasses

Wall Street's first Apple evangelist -- and the former chairman of Compaq -- reminisces

The 140-word Wikipedia entry on Benjamin M. Rosen hardly does him justice. For more than a decade -- starting in 1980 when he left Morgan Stanley and co-founded Sevin Rosen Management -- Ben Rosen was personal computing's most influential power broker, a visionary financier who backed dozens of high-tech start-ups, including Compaq, Citrix, Cyprus, Lotus, Silicon Graphics MORE