FORTUNE -- The vertical gap between the black triangle and the blue square at the far right of the attached chart -- sent to clients Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty -- may not look like much.
But it represents 4 million iPhones, the difference between the Street's estimate of iPhone shipments in the quarter that ends next week and Morgan Stanley's estimate of iPhone demand.
And because more than half of Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue derives from iPhone sales, the gap probably represents the difference between a ho-hum second fiscal quarter for Apple and a blowout.
Why should we care what Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Tracker says? See Huberty's Exhibit 2:
Meanwhile, institutional ownership of Amazon, Google and Microsoft are near record highs.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) is an outlier in a major shift of stock ownership that's unfolded over the past five years, according to a note issued Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty.
She writes that as small investors took their money out of stocks and put it into mutual funds, institutions were picking the slack. Average institutional ownership of the S&P MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 26, 2014 12:18 PM ET
Apple's iPad now trails Android in both units shipped AND revenues, says Morgan Stanley.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) investors have long taken comfort in the fact that even if its share of tablet shipments fell behind Android's in a particular quarter, the company still took home the lion's share of tablet revenues.
That's no longer true, says Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty.
Working from the tracking numbers IDC released two weeks ago -- which MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 15, 2013 8:27 AM ET
Morgan Stanley's chief Apple watcher likes what she sees.
FORTUNE -- Three months ago, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty predicted that Apple (AAPL) would sell 34.5 million iPhones in the quarter that ended Sept. 29. In the note she sent to clients Friday she stuck with that estimate -- even though she writes that demand last quarter was probably closer to 37 million.
Except for the "supply constraints" that she believes limited the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 18, 2013 7:33 AM ET
AlphaWise survey data through Sept. 15 catches early interest in iPhones 5C and 5S.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) had only just begun taking iPhone 5C pre-orders Sunday when Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker closed the books on Q3 2013, but the survey had already registered a bump in buyer interest in the company's line of smartphones.
According to a note to clients posted early Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, the survey's data suggest MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 18, 2013 6:24 AM ET
In North America, 77% carry iPhones and 57% own Macs.
FORTUNE -- There were several surprises in Katy Huberty's summary Friday of a survey of 530 Morgan Stanley summer analysts and associates in North America (NA), Asia Pacific (APAC) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
First, who knew that Morgan Stanley hired so many summer interns?
And who knew that they were so devoted to Apple's (AAPL) products?
Huberty doesn't make a MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 23, 2013 6:22 AM ET
AlphaWise survey finds Chinese willing to pay up to RMB 4,000 ($486) for the Apple brand.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has some good news for Apple (AAPL) and bad news for everybody else trying to sell smartphones in China.
On Monday, the same day the Wall Street Journal put its imprimatur on rumors that have been floating around for weeks -- namely, that Apple is set to launch a pair MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 20, 2013 4:37 AM ET
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has done the math.
FORTUNE -- One of the fears that sent Apple's (AAPL) stock price into a seven-month tailspin was concern that the company's enviable profit margins -- which had already taken a hit when it introduced a flurry of new products last fall -- could be hit again if it launches a lower-priced iPhone this fall.
Not to fear, writes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty in a note MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 3, 2013 6:40 AM ET
Google Trends says Apple beats low expectations, Samsung momentum stays strong.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.
The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.
As MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 22, 2013 7:09 PM ET
Morgan Stanley's chief Apple watcher was visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan.
FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Wednesday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, just back from China, reports on "feedback" from Asian carriers and suppliers that she views as positive for Apple (AAPL).
She makes several points: (I quote)
After a slow start, iPhone 5 is now on track to meet carrier volume expectations.
iPhone 4 price cuts could stimulate incremental demand near-term.
Carriers see MORE
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