Jefferies' Peter Misek: Apple could face a rough two years

More bad news out of Barcelona from one of Apple's more bearish analysts

The Konka Expose 970: Like a Samsung Galaxy S3 for a fraction of the price

FORTUNE -- Following up on his Day 1 report out of this week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (see "Apple is losing the screen-size war"), Jefferies' Peter Misek posted a second note to clients Wednesday that offered four reasons that, as he puts it, "Apple is potentially facing a very rough two-year period":

• Apple's capital expenditures are likely to double in the next two years (adding $10 billion per year, he estimates) as the company is forced to finance its chip and touchscreen suppliers' factory expansions and build up its iCloud and online service centers. 
• Apple's cash balance could be reduced by $10 billion, and $40 billion of the company's cash collections could be deferred over the next two years if Apple plans to expand its iPhone sales into pre-pay countries like India by replacing its carrier subsidy model with an arrangement where it lends the money to buy the phones directly to consumers.
• "International iPhone sales are slowing dramatically," Misek writes, "particularly in lower GDP per capita markets. We believe alternative distribution models like those in India can improve growth and the financing receivables will largely be securitizable; however, increased capital commitments would make a quick change more difficult should sales fall."
• The rise in so-called whitebox smartphones sales will accentuate what he calls "Apple's product gap." He points to Glonee and Konka, both of which he says are offering handsets that are similar to the Samsung Galaxy S3 but for a fraction of the price. "We think these high-end white box phones are forcing Apple to invest in next-gen screen technology in order to differentiate."

Misek rates Apple (AAPL) a "hold" and his $500 price target is one of the lowest on Wall Street.

Posted in: Apple, Jefferies, Mobile World Congress, Peter Misek

• Note from Barcelona: 'Apple is losing the screen-size war'

  At Mobile World Congress 2013, an analyst reports, phablets are all the rage

  FORTUNE -- Although it never attends, Apple (AAPL) is always a presence at Mobile World Congress, the big cellphone conference held every year since 2009 in Barcelona.

  In past years Apple's iPhone platform has set the bar by which other smartphone vendors measured themselves. (See, for example, Now everybody has an App Store.)

  Not so this year, according to Jefferies' Peter Misek, MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 26, 2013 12:04 PM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Mobile World Congress

• Barcelona blues: Apple reaps most of the cellphone profits

  Just in time for this week's Mobile World Congress, a snapshot of where the money goes

  To get a sense of what Apple's (AAPL) competitors are up against in Barcelona this week as they unveil their new mobile phone models for the 2012 season, consider the relative size of the solid color profit (and loss) bars in the chart above.

  It's the money shot in a series of eye-opening graphs that the inimitable Horace MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 27, 2012 7:24 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Barcelona, Foxconn, HTC, iPhone, LG, Mobile World Congress, Motorola, Nokia, Paris Hilton, RIM, Samsung, Sony, Tim Cook

• Can OnSwipe steal magazines back from Apple?

  Big media companies are grousing about Apple's 30% app tax. OnSwipe wants to convince readers—and publishers—there's another, better way.

  By Chadwick Matlin, contributor

  Last week, after a year of luring big media organizations onto the iPad, Apple sent out a press release, but they would have done just as well sending copies of the old board game Mouse Trap. The release said that publishers, like all app developers, would have to pay what MORE

  Feb 25, 2011 10:33 AM ET
  Posted in: AdMob, Android, Apple, Google, iPad, Mobile World Congress, Samsung Galaxy Tab, Spark Capital

• Mobile OSs: And then there were 10

  Who remembers Maemo, imode, MeeGo or, for that matter, Windows Mobile?

  To counter Stephen Elop's remark that by joining forces, Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft (MSFT) were going to make it a "three horse race" -- implying that Apple's (AAPL) iOS and Google's (GOOG) Android were the only other viable mobile ecosystems in the running -- Asymco's Horace Dediu did some digging and produced the chart at right.

  It shows the lifespan of MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 19, 2011 5:26 PM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Asymco, Google, Horace Dediu, iOS, Maemo, MeeGo, Microsoft, Mobile, Mobile World Congress, Nokia, Stephen Elop, Symbian

• Tablet market heading for a shakeout

  A dispatch from Barcelona sees trouble ahead for the iPad's competitors

  RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky has coined a new acronym: NAAT! (Not Another Android Tablet!)

  "The geyser of Android tablet launches continues," he writes in a note to clients from Day 2 of Mobile World Congress 2011 in Barcelona. He mentions, among others, the HTC (Flyer), ViewSonic (ViewPad 4), and Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1. "Plus dozens of lower-end Android tablets pending from MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 16, 2011 10:51 AM ET
  Posted in: Android, Apple, Google, iPad, Mike Abramsky, Mobile World Congress, RBC Capital, Tablets

• An exquisitely timed iPhone leak

  As mobile companies meet in Spain for their annual congress, Apple hijacks the show

  The most exciting thing about a big tech industry gathering, goes the cynical reporter joke, is that you know Apple (AAPL) is going to leak something to the Wall Street Journal to keep themselves in the news.

  And sure enough, on the eve of the annual Mobile World Congress, which opened Monday in Barcelona, a story appeared on MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 14, 2011 6:28 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Barcelona, iPhone, iTunes, Microsoft, Mobile, Mobile World Congress, MobileMe, Nokia, Spain, Wall Street Journal

• Sony Ericsson's almost NSFW Playstation Phone commercial

  Poor Andy Android gets some back alley surgery.  For the hardcore only.

  The Xperia Play, also more affectionately known as the Playstation phone is going to get some airtime at Europe's biggest mobile gathering, Mobile World Congress later this month.  Until then, all you have to tide you over is this somewhat gruesome little reminder that the Playstation platform is moving into a virtual machine on Android.

  Watch out, Android now has opposable thumbs.

  via DroidNYTTno MORE

  Seth Weintraub - Feb 3, 2011 1:55 PM ET
  Posted in: Android, Mobile World Congress, Playstation, Sony, Sony Ericsson, Xperia

• Today in Tech: Palm's iPad competitor, Playstation Phone, Verizon iPhone song

  A curated selection of the day's most newsworthy tech stories from all over the Web.

  HP and Palm may introduce three models of the PalmPad, a tablet aimed squarely at taking down the iPad, at this January's CES. All three will run a new version of Palm's WebOS, and a fourth student edition, will be showed off later on. Other features will include: a weight of 1.25 lbs., a USB 3.0 MORE

  JP Mangalindan, Writer - Dec 22, 2010 6:00 AM ET
  Posted in: 4G, Amazon, Apple, Bloomberg Businessweek, Facebook, FCC, HP, iPhone, LTE, Microsoft, Mobile World Congress, Palm, Sony Ericsson Playstation phone, Twitter, Universal Serial Bus, VentureBeat, Verizon, Verizon iPhone, WebOS

• Sony's Playstation phone to be called the 'Xperia Play'

  A trademark filing reveals what would be the likely name of the upcoming PSP Phone from Sony.

  We're likely to find out much more about Sony's Playstation phone next month at CES or at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona the following month in February. Today, however, PocketNow found what is likely to be the trademark name for the device in the EU.

  The name "Xperia Play" suggests that the phones will stick MORE

  Seth Weintraub - Dec 21, 2010 3:08 PM ET
  Posted in: Consumer Electronics Show, European Union, Mobile World Congress, PocketNow, Sony, Sony Ericsson, Sony Ericsson Xperia X10, Xperia