At last count, he writes, the iPhone was being sold by only 30% of the world's 816 mobile phone operators. Some of those carriers are bigger than others, of course. But all told he estimates that the iPhone is available for direct sale to only about 50% of the world's 6 billion mobile subscribers.
Google's (GOOG) Android, by contrast, is available to nearly 100% of those subscribers.
Where does the iPhone have the most room to grow? According to Dediu, the top 5 countries with unaddressed subscribers are
But the iPhone also has room to grow in the developed world. Dediu estimates that Japan is a 69-million-subscriber opportunity. Even the U.S. has 80 million subscribers without direct (i.e. subsidized) access to the iPhone.
The reasons Apple has half the addressable market of Android -- or, for that matter, Research in Motion (RIMM) -- are complex. They revolve, Dediu explains, around the question at the heart of Apple's iPhone business model:
Can enough units be shipped in a sufficiently short time frame to allow a limited (but large) subset of operators to create competitive advantage which sustains a generous up-front subsidy.
The issues Dediu raises in The iPhone Addressable Market are among of the topics to be explored at his first Asymco conference in the U.S. It's scheduled for Jan. 30 in San Jose, Calif. See Asymconf California for more details.
Been down so long it looks like up to Apple shareholders
FORTUNE -- After one of the longest bear markets in its roller-coaster history, Apple (AAPL) rebounded Monday, closing at $565.73, up $38.05 (7.21%) for the day, while pulling the NASDAQ (+2.21%) and S&P 500 (+1.99%) up along with it.
It was Apple's second best day since 1984 in terms of dollar gains, second only to April 25, 2012, when the stock rose MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 19, 2012 4:31 PM ET
Verizon is said to be building a rival Android market that will supplant Google's own.
You'd think that Verizon (VZ) putting Microsoft's (MSFT) rival search and mapping engines on Google's phone OS is the worst thing they'd do to Google this week. According to "Android and Me" you might be wrong. The blog says that Verizon is planning its own alternative app store, one that is curated like Apple's (AAPL) iOS MORESeth Weintraub - Sep 14, 2010 10:46 AM ET
Changes to the developer agreement may signal a new means of paying for apps in Google's mobile OS.
On Friday, Internet legend Tim Bray announced on the Android developer blog big changes to the Android Market Developer Distribution Agreement (DDA):
Please note that we have updated the Android Market Developer Distribution Agreement (DDA). This is in preparation for some work we're doing on introducing new payment options, which we think developers will like.
In MORESeth Weintraub - Jul 25, 2010 11:47 AM ET
ThickButtons is another way to increase your texting speed and accuracy on Android.
I wrote earlier today about Swype, a new way of texting. Swype's method of sliding instead of tapping is pretty effective but requires a radically new way of thinking.
If you want something a lot easier (both to install and use) have a look at ThickButtons. The idea is that it anticipates what combinations of letters you are likely to use and makes MORESeth Weintraub - Jun 16, 2010 10:16 PM ET
Launched in October 2008, the Android Market now has 50,000 apps to choose from in its application marketplace.
While not nearly as quick as the iPhone to 50,000 apps, which Apple achieved within a year, the Android Market is proving to be the alternative market for mobile apps. The Android Market was announced on August 28, 2008 and was made available to users two months later. This weekend, it passed the MORESeth Weintraub - Apr 26, 2010 12:21 PM ET
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