FORTUNE -- On Wednesday, Asymco's Horace Dediu posted the chart at right in response to a statement by UBS analyst John Hodulik -- reflecting conventional wisdom on Wall Street -- that "everybody has got a smartphone."
Using comScore data, Dediu was able to show
Moreover, since the rest of the world's mobile users own fewer than half as many smartphones per capita, Dediu concludes that, as he puts it, "4 billion people are about to switch."
That's what Dediu had to say.
But the story doesn't stop there. As often happens on Dediu's Asymco blog, his well-informed (and enviably well-behaved) readers picked up the ball and ran with it.
I recommend the entire thread, but if you have time for only one comment, scroll down to the long post by "Chaka10." Using data from a proprietary survey conducted by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners, he (or she) was able to tease out how many iPhone customers in each of the past 12 quarters were first-time smartphone buyers, how many were switching from another smartphone platform, and how many were loyal Apple (AAPL) customers coming back to buy another iPhone.
Chaka10 worked out what he called a "replacement demand ratio" and showed that it follows an observable pattern, peaking consistently -- and strikingly -- two years after the launch of a new iPhone.
The conclusion he reaches that is most relevant to Apple investors is that current Wall Street estimates for iPhone sales last quarter significantly underestimate the total, because they underestimate the impact of replacement demand.
He unpacks Wall Street's unit sales estimates -- which ranged in Fortune's survey from 23 million to 30 million -- to show that they imply a replacement ratio of 69% to 88%. In contrast, Chakra10's analysis --which allows for the replacement of a lot of iPhones that are two or more years old -- implies a year-over-year growth in replacement sales of 243%
In other words, Wall Street, having bought into the "everybody has got a smartphone" meme, may be seriously underestimating how many iPhones Apple actually sold in Q3 2013.
We'll find out if he's right next Tuesday.
Asymco link: "Everybody has got a smartphone."
Apple's most popular product is not for sale to half the world's 6 billion mobile users
FORTUNE -- The next time someone tells you that the market for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is saturated, think of the chart at right posted Wednesday by Asymco's Horace Dediu.
At last count, he writes, the iPhone was being sold by only 30% of the world's 816 mobile phone operators. Some of those carriers are bigger than MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 22, 2012 8:15 AM ET
Been down so long it looks like up to Apple shareholders
FORTUNE -- After one of the longest bear markets in its roller-coaster history, Apple (AAPL) rebounded Monday, closing at $565.73, up $38.05 (7.21%) for the day, while pulling the NASDAQ (+2.21%) and S&P 500 (+1.99%) up along with it.
It was Apple's second best day since 1984 in terms of dollar gains, second only to April 25, 2012, when the stock rose MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 19, 2012 4:31 PM ET
Verizon is said to be building a rival Android market that will supplant Google's own.
You'd think that Verizon (VZ) putting Microsoft's (MSFT) rival search and mapping engines on Google's phone OS is the worst thing they'd do to Google this week. According to "Android and Me" you might be wrong. The blog says that Verizon is planning its own alternative app store, one that is curated like Apple's (AAPL) iOS MORESeth Weintraub - Sep 14, 2010 10:46 AM ET
Changes to the developer agreement may signal a new means of paying for apps in Google's mobile OS.
On Friday, Internet legend Tim Bray announced on the Android developer blog big changes to the Android Market Developer Distribution Agreement (DDA):
Please note that we have updated the Android Market Developer Distribution Agreement (DDA). This is in preparation for some work we're doing on introducing new payment options, which we think developers will like.
In MORESeth Weintraub - Jul 25, 2010 11:47 AM ET
ThickButtons is another way to increase your texting speed and accuracy on Android.
I wrote earlier today about Swype, a new way of texting. Swype's method of sliding instead of tapping is pretty effective but requires a radically new way of thinking.
If you want something a lot easier (both to install and use) have a look at ThickButtons. The idea is that it anticipates what combinations of letters you are likely to use and makes MORESeth Weintraub - Jun 16, 2010 10:16 PM ET
Launched in October 2008, the Android Market now has 50,000 apps to choose from in its application marketplace.
While not nearly as quick as the iPhone to 50,000 apps, which Apple achieved within a year, the Android Market is proving to be the alternative market for mobile apps. The Android Market was announced on August 28, 2008 and was made available to users two months later. This weekend, it passed the MORESeth Weintraub - Apr 26, 2010 12:21 PM ET
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