FORTUNE -- Once Apple's (AAPL) biggest money maker, the Mac at 12% of total revenue is now No. 3 after the iPhone (52%) and iPad (20%).
[No. 4 at 7.6% and climbing fast is the category Apple calls "iTunes, Software and Services."]
The good news for the axis of Apple's digital hub strategy is that the year-over-year declines the Mac suffered for four quarters in a row in fiscal 2013 may have come to a halt.
Although a third of the 33 analysts we've heard from so far -- 13 amateurs and 20 Wall Street professionals -- think Apple will report another decline in unit sales next week, two thirds believe sales actually rose year over year.
The average analyst's estimate is just over 4 million Macs, a 2.8% increase over the same quarter last year. The pros (at 4.1 million) are slightly -- but only slightly -- more bullish than the amateurs (4 million) this time around.
The high estimate of 4.84 million Macs, submitted by ISI's Brian Marshall, would represent year-over-year growth of 22.5%. The low estimate (3.65 million) from the Braeburn Group's Kirk Burgess, would mean a decline of 7.6%.
We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its fiscal Q2 2014 earnings after the markets close on Wednesday, April 23.
Below: The individual analyst's estimates -- pros in blue, indies in green. Thanks once again to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
It defies the laws of economics, writes Needham's Apple analyst. The iPhone, not so much.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) computers cost more than its competitors' -- an average of $700, according to Needham's Charlie Wolf. Yet its market share, as indicated by Figure 1, has grown in 10 out of the last 11 years.
iPhones also cost more than the competition. Yet Apple's worldwide smartphone market share peaked at 23.8% in December 2011 and has been bouncing MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 1, 2014 7:17 PM ET
Also Safari, Twitter, Calendar, iBooks, FaceTime, Keynote and Software Update.
FORTUNE -- Ashkan Soltani, an independent computer security expert best known for analyzing Edward Snowden's NSA leaks for the Washington Post, has published a list of applications running Mac OS X 10.9 that he says are vulnerable to the same security hole Apple (AAPL) patched in its mobile operating system on Friday.
They include apps used by millions of Mac users every day: MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 24, 2014 9:56 AM ET
Apple has plenty to celebrate. I guess.
FORTUNE -- The video is lovely. And the elaborate timeline on Apple's home page that introduces the cast, profiles the Macs, and expands on the video's themes is clearly a labor of love.
So is it churlish to suggest that some people at Apple (AAPL) might have too much time on their hands? Or that those resources might be better deployed fixing iCloud, solving the iPhoto MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 24, 2014 6:03 PM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 3.8 million to 5.2 million. Average: 4.6 million.
FORTUNE -- It was once Apple's (AAPL) No. 1 source of revenue, but today, 30 years after its launch, the Mac is now almost an afterthought -- No. 3 in terms of revenue, behind the iPhone and iPad and ahead (for now) of iTunes.
The Mac did manage to generated $21.5 billion in fiscal 2013 -- roughly one eighth MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 23, 2014 8:21 PM ET
U.S. sales of Apple's Mac grew 28.5% last quarter, says Gartner. IDC says they fell 5.7%.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) was the PC maker that zigged when the market zagged, according to a Gartner report on 2013 sales issued Thursday. [IDC begs to differ. See below.]
Overall, the news was grim. The industry as a whole suffered its seventh consecutive quarter of declining shipments -- down 6.9% for the quarter and 10% for MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 9, 2014 9:21 PM ET
In 30 quarters, its market share grew 150% and its profit share 270%. Has that run ended?
FORTUNE -- Needham's Charlie Wolf has been following Apple (AAPL) long enough to still care what's happening to the Mac,* and on Tuesday he took a crack at explaining why the company's most venerable product line (it turns 30 in January) seems to have, as he puts it, "fallen back to earth."
Beginning in 2005, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 19, 2013 10:51 AM ET
Windows guru Adrian Kingsley-Hughes has all but abandoned the Microsoft ecosystem.
FORTUNE -- "After more than two decades of being a dedicated Windows power user, and having invested tens of thousands of hours into mastering the platform, and run versions spanning from 3.0 to 8.1, I've now all but given up on Windows."
Those are words Adrian Kingsley-Hughes, a Microsoft (MSFT) Windows and Visual Basic guru with several how-to books and countless MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 13, 2013 11:35 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 3.6 million to 5 million. Average: 4.26 million.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales haven't been hurt as much as Windows PC's have by the rise of tablets and smartphones. But Mac shipments peaked in late 2011, and the best Apple can probably hope for now is that they hold up better than everybody else's.
The analysts we polled in advance of Monday's fiscal fourth quarter earning report MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 26, 2013 10:31 AM ET
Both Gartner and IDC show summer Mac sales down as tablets replace PCs in schools.
FORTUNE -- An Apple (AAPL) summer tradition -- strong back-to-school sales of the Mac -- finally got broken by the same disruption that has been draining growth out of the entire PC industry: The booming tablet market that Apple created when it launched the iPad in 2010.
Gartner and IDC released their third quarter PC shipment reports MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 10, 2013 7:33 AM ET
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