FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) investors have long taken comfort in the fact that even if its share of tablet shipments fell behind Android's in a particular quarter, the company still took home the lion's share of tablet revenues.
That's no longer true, says Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty.
Working from the tracking numbers IDC released two weeks ago -- which reported that Apple's share of tablet shipments in the September quarter had fallen below 30%, their lowest level yet -- Huberty calculated that the iPad's share of global tablet revenues hit an even more troubling milestone:
"For the first time," she wrote in a note to clients Friday, "Android devices accounted for a greater share of the market in revenue terms than iOS. Android revenue share reached 46.2% in 3Q13, for the first time exceeding iPad share of 45.6%. Android's unit share grew to 66.7% from 58.5% a year ago, largely driven by Samsung and Lenovo, while iPad share declined to 29.7% from 40.2%."
IDC attributed the iPad shipment falloff to Apple's decision in late 2012 to move all its product launches to the pre-Christmas quarter -- which meant customers holding out for a new iPad had to wait a full year.
But with the iPad Air and Retina iPad mini moving briskly, both IDC and Gartner expect Apple to enjoy what IDC called "robust shipment growth" in the December quarter.
UPDATE: To answer several readers' questions...
Morgan Stanley's chief Apple watcher likes what she sees.
FORTUNE -- Three months ago, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty predicted that Apple (AAPL) would sell 34.5 million iPhones in the quarter that ended Sept. 29. In the note she sent to clients Friday she stuck with that estimate -- even though she writes that demand last quarter was probably closer to 37 million.
Except for the "supply constraints" that she believes limited the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 18, 2013 7:33 AM ET
In a survey of 799 U.S. customers, 12% of iPhone owners said they might buy one.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) does not sell a smartwatch. It hasn't introduced one or said anything about making one. But it has filed patents for a computerized touchscreen wristband, and this summer it registered the iWatch trademark in half a dozen countries.
On the strength of that, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster recently set out to gauge MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 7, 2013 7:29 AM ET
AlphaWise survey data through Sept. 15 catches early interest in iPhones 5C and 5S.
FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) had only just begun taking iPhone 5C pre-orders Sunday when Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker closed the books on Q3 2013, but the survey had already registered a bump in buyer interest in the company's line of smartphones.
According to a note to clients posted early Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, the survey's data suggest MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 18, 2013 6:24 AM ET
In North America, 77% carry iPhones and 57% own Macs.
FORTUNE -- There were several surprises in Katy Huberty's summary Friday of a survey of 530 Morgan Stanley summer analysts and associates in North America (NA), Asia Pacific (APAC) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).
First, who knew that Morgan Stanley hired so many summer interns?
And who knew that they were so devoted to Apple's (AAPL) products?
Huberty doesn't make a MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 23, 2013 6:22 AM ET
AlphaWise survey finds Chinese willing to pay up to RMB 4,000 ($486) for the Apple brand.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has some good news for Apple (AAPL) and bad news for everybody else trying to sell smartphones in China.
On Monday, the same day the Wall Street Journal put its imprimatur on rumors that have been floating around for weeks -- namely, that Apple is set to launch a pair MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 20, 2013 4:37 AM ET
New patents support speculation that Apple has saved mobile payments for the fall.
FORTUNE -- "Mobile payments remains a future opportunity," wrote Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty in her note to clients about Monday's WWDC keynote.
"Apple's 575 million active accounts, which is tracking ahead of our 600 million year-end 2013 estimate, is the largest credit-card linked account base, making it an obvious payments platform over time. Apple often saves new feature/service introductions MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 11, 2013 8:04 AM ET
Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has done the math.
FORTUNE -- One of the fears that sent Apple's (AAPL) stock price into a seven-month tailspin was concern that the company's enviable profit margins -- which had already taken a hit when it introduced a flurry of new products last fall -- could be hit again if it launches a lower-priced iPhone this fall.
Not to fear, writes Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty in a note MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 3, 2013 6:40 AM ET
Google Trends says Apple beats low expectations, Samsung momentum stays strong.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.
The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.
As MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 22, 2013 7:09 PM ET
Morgan Stanley's chief Apple watcher was visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan.
FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Wednesday, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, just back from China, reports on "feedback" from Asian carriers and suppliers that she views as positive for Apple (AAPL).
She makes several points: (I quote)
After a slow start, iPhone 5 is now on track to meet carrier volume expectations.
iPhone 4 price cuts could stimulate incremental demand near-term.
Carriers see MORE
|Don't fight it. Bitcoin has a bright future|
|"The Hobbit" dispute sparks lawsuit|
|Five things you didn't know about Bernie Madoff's epic scam|
|Teen millionaire helping Yahoo become cool again|
|Stocks falter as budget deal raises taper risk|