FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) shares were trading at $413.50 when Jefferies' Peter Misek wrote the note to clients over the weekend that lowered his 12-month price target from $420 to $405.
Misek has come a long way from last December, when we reported that he'd raised his iPhone estimates but lowered his price target from $900 to $800.
He's turned into one of the most bearish of the 60 or 70 analysts who cover Apple. But by luck or prescience Misek seems to have a better sense of where the market is headed than the average Wall Street analyst, who according to Thomson/First Call has price target of $541 and by my spreadsheet is currently at $549.
Apple opened Monday at $407.40, down $6.10 (1.5%) from Friday's close.
At 11:23 a.m. it touched $398.05, its lowest price since April.
Misek has a Hold rating on the stock. The chart above, produced by the Bespoke Investment Group and posted on Seeking Alpha under the headline Analysts Slowly Sour on Apple, traces the percentage of analysts' Buy ratings over the past 13 years. It's hovering now at three out of four.
Today's bullish estimates can be tomorrow's "orders slashed due to weakening demand."
FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Monday, Jefferies' Peter Misek offered some intriguing numbers.
Based on checks with his network of Apple (AAPL) suppliers, he believes that the company plans to build iPhones at the rate of
25 to 30 million by the end of June
25 to 50 million more by the end of September
60 to 65 million more by MORE
This time it's Jefferies' Peter Misek, lowering his price target to $420 from $500
FORTUNE -- Not content to issue two negative reports on Apple (AAPL) in the space of two days last month (Apple is losing the screen-size war and Apple could face a rough two years), Jefferies' Peter Misak was back at it again Tuesday...
Cutting his fiscal Q2 iPhone estimate (to 35 million from 37.5 million)
Lowering his price target MORE
More bad news out of Barcelona from one of Apple's more bearish analysts
FORTUNE -- Following up on his Day 1 report out of this week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (see "Apple is losing the screen-size war"), Jefferies' Peter Misek posted a second note to clients Wednesday that offered four reasons that, as he puts it, "Apple is potentially facing a very rough two-year period":
Apple's capital expenditures are likely to double MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 27, 2013 10:47 AM ET
A giant solar array? An huge fuel cell facility? A second 500,000 sq. ft. data center?
I'm not sure I buy the main reason Jefferies' Peter Misek gave today for raising his Apple (AAPL) price target to $800 from $699: His "increased confidence" Apple is going to release the much-rumored iTV in the fourth quarter of 2012.
My own confidence that Apple is going to get into the television manufacturing business is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 5, 2012 11:42 AM ET
Jefferies' Peter Misek takes a deep dive into the problem of acquiring quality content
Amid all the chatter this week about Apple's (AAPL) putative plans to build a standalone TV set -- from Best Buy's leaked customer survey to the Globe and Mail's report that Canadian telcoms are already testing the thing in their labs -- the 23-page report produced by Peter Misek's team at Jefferies International stands out.
Rather than get MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 7, 2012 11:29 AM ET
There's a lot more to the relationship than the rumors of an Apple-branded TV suggest
Credit AllThingsD's John Paczkowski for finding the most headline-worthy nugget in the report issued Tuesday by Jefferies analyst Peter Misek on his recent trip to Japan.
The thrust of Paczkowski's story -- Apple Television Could Be Ready for Commercial Production by Feb. 2012 -- was echoed Wednesday by more than a dozen writers who had only his brief item to rely on.
But MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 24, 2011 8:53 AM ET
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