The perils of tracking Apple's supply chain 'build plans'

Today's bullish estimates can be tomorrow's "orders slashed due to weakening demand."

Tim Cook visits an iPhone factory. Photo: Apple

FORTUNE -- In a note to clients Monday, Jefferies' Peter Misek offered some intriguing numbers.

Based on checks with his network of Apple (AAPL) suppliers, he believes that the company plans to build iPhones at the rate of

• 25 to 30 million by the end of June
• 25 to 50 million more by the end of September
• 60 to 65 million more by New Years

and iPads at the rate of

• 20 to 25 million by the end of June (recently revised higher)
• 25 to 30 million more by the end of September
• 30 to 35 million more by New Years

A word of caution before you pour those numbers into a spreadsheet: Data points from individual suppliers are notoriously unreliable, as Tim Cook likes to remind analysts. And as we have seen, such estimates can go down as well as up.

One memorable case in point:

In Nov. 2011 DigiTimes reported that Apple had "slashed" orders for iPhone 4S parts 10% to 15% -- a report that generated a flurry of doomsday headlines (Uh-Oh: Apple Said To Cut Orders To Asia Suppliers On iPhone 4S Problems" from Business Insider's Henry Blodget) and persuaded many on Wall Street that Apple was headed for disappointing Christmas sales.

As it turned out, the company shipped a record 37 million iPhones that Christmas quarter, up 128% year over year.

Posted in: Apple, iPad, iPhone, Jefferies, Peter Misek, supply chain

• Another day, another analyst taking a whack at Apple

  This time it's Jefferies' Peter Misek, lowering his price target to $420 from $500

  FORTUNE -- Not content to issue two negative reports on Apple (AAPL) in the space of two days last month (Apple is losing the screen-size war and Apple could face a rough two years), Jefferies' Peter Misak was back at it again Tuesday...

  Cutting his fiscal Q2 iPhone estimate (to 35 million from 37.5 million)
  Lowering his price target MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 12, 2013 8:35 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Jefferies, Peter Misek, Price target

• Jefferies' Peter Misek: Apple could face a rough two years

  More bad news out of Barcelona from one of Apple's more bearish analysts

  FORTUNE -- Following up on his Day 1 report out of this week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona (see "Apple is losing the screen-size war"), Jefferies' Peter Misek posted a second note to clients Wednesday that offered four reasons that, as he puts it, "Apple is potentially facing a very rough two-year period":

  Apple's capital expenditures are likely to double MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 27, 2013 10:47 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Jefferies, Mobile World Congress, Peter Misek

• What's Apple up to now in Maiden, North Carolina?

  A giant solar array? An huge fuel cell facility? A second 500,000 sq. ft. data center?

  I'm not sure I buy the main reason Jefferies' Peter Misek gave today for raising his Apple (AAPL) price target to $800 from $699: His "increased confidence" Apple is going to release the much-rumored iTV in the fourth quarter of 2012.

  My own confidence that Apple is going to get into the television manufacturing business is MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 5, 2012 11:42 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Charlotte Observer, Data center, Fuel cell, iTV, Jefferies, Maiden, North Carolina, Peter Misek, Solar, television

• What's on Apple's iTV?

  Jefferies' Peter Misek takes a deep dive into the problem of acquiring quality content

  Amid all the chatter this week about Apple's (AAPL) putative plans to build a standalone TV set -- from Best Buy's leaked customer survey to the Globe and Mail's report that Canadian telcoms are already testing the thing in their labs -- the 23-page report produced by Peter Misek's team at Jefferies International stands out.

  Rather than get MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 7, 2012 11:29 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Bell Canada, Best Buy, Content, Globe and Mail, iTV, Jefferies, Peter Misek, Rogers, television, TV

• Sharp and Apple: What the Jefferies report really says

  There's a lot more to the relationship than the rumors of an Apple-branded TV suggest

  Credit AllThingsD's John Paczkowski for finding the most headline-worthy nugget in the report issued Tuesday by Jefferies analyst Peter Misek on his recent trip to Japan.

  The thrust of Paczkowski's story -- Apple Television Could Be Ready for Commercial Production by Feb. 2012 -- was echoed Wednesday by more than a dozen writers who had only his brief item to rely on.

  But MORE

  Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 24, 2011 8:53 AM ET
  Posted in: Apple, Apple TV, iPad 3, iPhone 5, Jefferies, John Paczkowski, Mobile, OLED, Peter Misek, Sharp, Steve Jobs, Tablets, television