Apple is selling iPhones as fast as it can make them, but that may not be fast enough
A pair of analyst reports Tuesday warn that Apple (AAPL) may be having trouble feeding the demand for iPhones in advance of the holiday selling season.
In a note entitled "Limited near-term upside for iPhone," Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar alerted clients that low yields on an unidentified "key component" is likely to constrain production of the iPhone 4S this quarter.
"Layering on the estimated 4 million iPhone 4S that were manufactured (but not shipped) in the September quarter, overall iPhone shipments in the December quarter could come in around 30 million units or below street estimates."
For the record, 30 million units is 3 million more than Kumar's own 27 million estimate, which he described in October as representing a "strong rebound."
Meanwhile, Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro cites equally vague "supply constraints" in a report that suggests a 2-3 million reduction in iPhone 4S builds for the quarter. Accordingly, he is reducing his iPhone 4S production estimates from 26-28 million to 23-25 million.
But "store checks suggest that demand remain solid," he writes, and when he throws in the iPhone 3GS and the iPhone 4, his total iPhone production forecast for the quarter is 29-34 million units.
Considering that Apple sold 16.24 million iPhones in the December quarter last year, that represents somewhere between 79% and 101% growth year over year.
Not too shabby. Which makes you wonder why these notes are being cast as warnings.
Exploring the mysteries of what the analysts call "multiple compression"
When Apple's (AAPL) shares responded to the news out of the company's developers conference by closing the week at $325.90 -- their lowest level since last December -- I thought I'd take a look at how last Friday's stock price compared with the 12-month price targets Wall Street's analysts posted exactly one year earlier, after the conference that introduced the iPhone MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 14, 2011 11:02 AM ET
Two weeks after a fatal explosion, it's business as usual at Foxconn's factory in Chengdu.
After an explosion in a Chinese factory that makes iPads for Apple (AAPL) killed three workers and injured 15 more, one analyst estimated that Apple's quarterly iPad production numbers might fall by as much as 2.8 million units -- speculation that helped drive the company's shares down more than 1.5% that day.
Two weeks later, it's clear MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 2, 2011 11:10 AM ET
Expects sales of 76.7 million iPhones and 32.1 million iPads in fiscal 2011
[Needham's Charlie Wolf also raised his price target Monday, to $450 from $375, and Ticonderoga's Brian White reiterated his $550 target. By 10 a.m. Apple was trading above $350 for the first time.]
In his first Apple (AAPL) supply chain check since Verizon (VZ) iPhone pre-sales began, Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro has raised his Apple price target (to $465 from MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 7, 2011 7:37 AM ET
Steve Jobs' latest iteration of the set-top box gets mixed-positive reviews on Wall Street
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster:
We see the new Apple TV as a meaningful change in Apple's efforts in the digital living room. The addition of new content, such as Netflix, in combination with the $99 price (down from $229), will drive higher unit volumes compared to the the previous version of Apple TV. We MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 2, 2010 12:49 PM ET
Shipping delays have quietly shrunk from 5-to-7 business days to 3-to-5 days
[UPDATE: As of Monday, Aug. 23, iPads were shipping within 1-to-3 business days.]
The iPad shortages that delayed the launch of the iPad 3G and pushed back the international roll-out by a month have finally started to ease.
In a note to clients issued Wednesday, Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro notes that iPad shipping delays, which Apple.com listed as 7-to-10 business days MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 18, 2010 8:32 AM ET
The bloggers beat the pros once again this quarter, but not quite as handily as before
The professional analysts who track Apple (AAPL) for banks and brokerage houses may have been surprised by the $15.7 billion in revenue the company reported Tuesday -- an all-time record for Apple in what is traditionally one of its weakest quarters.
But the blogger-analysts we polled in advance of the earnings report were not. In fact, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 21, 2010 5:53 AM ET
The iPhone 4's momentum is beyond "our bullish expectations," says Kaufman's Shaw Wu
The Wall Street analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) -- and there are dozens of them -- continue to take a second look at their spreadsheets in the wake of those 3 million iPad sales, the extraordinary flood of iPhone 4 pre-orders and the glowing reviews this week in advance of Thursday's iPhone launch.
As is their wont when Apple MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 23, 2010 12:12 PM ET
The release of the iPhone 4 next weekend is shaping up as one for the record books
Topping all estimates we've seen so far, Susquehanna Financial's Jeff Fidacaro issued a note to clients predicting that next weekend could be a "2 mln - 3 mln iPhone event" -- two to three times bigger than the launches of Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 3G and 3GS in 2008 and 2009, respectively.
He cites both the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 18, 2010 10:46 AM ET
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