Jason Schwarz
A classic Apple slingshot
December 6, 2012: 11:27 AM ETIt suffered its biggest one-day loss in four years Wednesday. On Thursday it sprang back
FORTUNE -- Time to revisit, once again, our favorite Jason Schwarz's quote:
"If you can keep a good stock down then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate." -- Apple: Seven reasons shorts love it
It's still early, but the action in Apple (AAPL) Thursday morning following Wednesday's $37.06 (6.4%) drop -- its worst in four years -- has all the earmarks of a slingshot sprung.
There was no shortage of explanations for Wednesday's shellacking -- including the self-fullfilling prophesy of margin calls -- but the agitprop of Apple bears didn't help. Creative Global Investments' Carlo Besenius piled on Wednesday with a particularly poisonous "sell" recommendation that included what may be the definitive litany of negative bullet points:
• Bad technicals; bear market status now for 2012
• Death Cross formation
• Long Term Head & shoulder pattern in formation
• MACD indicates a Bearish Trend
• Chart pattern indicates a Strong Downward Trend
• Relative Strength is Bearish
• Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Distribution
• The 50-day Moving Average is falling which is Bearish
• The 200-day Moving Average is rising, but slowing, still Bullish
• Watch for resistance at 589.25
• Margin requirements hitting stock
• Tax Selling due to huge gains
• APPL has not announced a 2012 special dividend
• Fundamentals slowing
• New product cycle & pipeline slowing
• Buyers psychology changing
• Pricing Pressure due to too many competitors with lower priced products
• Margin Pressures showing
• Nokia deal with China Mobile having an impact
• Samsung outselling I-Phone, and accelerating
• Too many commentators having opinions, and no facts
I'm particularly fond of that last one.
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Why is Apple headed down again? Here's one theory
The third selling wave since Sept. 21 could be the bursting of a special dividend bubble
FORTUNE -- For Apple (AAPL) investors wondering why the company has been, as Economic Timing's Jason Schwarz puts it, "in sell-off mode for over two months, even in the midst of its greatest quarter of sales in history," Schwarz offers an explanation.
He believes the current wave of selling is linked to the co-called special dividends MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 5, 2012 10:45 AM ET -
Why Apple fell so hard
Two theories for Apple's fall, neither of which has to do with fear, uncertainty or doubt
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) share price briefly touched $505.75 in Thursday's trading -- $200 (28.3%) off its mid-September high.
We needn't spell out here all the reasons that have been put forward over the past two months for why the stock was due for a fall. There's a whole literature of Apple FUD (fear, uncertainty and MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 17, 2012 11:37 AM ET -
The Apple slingshot released: $57 billion in one clock tick
In two weeks, the company's value had been pulled down by nearly one Amazon
FORTUNE -- In the words of Jason Schwarz:
"If you can keep a good stock down then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate." -- Apple: Seven reasons shorts love it
There was a lot of pent-up value in Apple (AAPL) MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 26, 2012 7:04 AM ET -
Cocking the Apple slingshot
Why would a stock like Apple fall 10% just before quarterly earnings are due?
MONDAY 4:00 p.m. UPDATE: Throw another -4.15% on the barbie. One analyst called today's selloff "panic profit taking."
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I think it may be time once again to dust off Jason Schwarz' classic blog post: Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It.
Apple's (AAPL) shares, in case you missed it, took a drubbing last week, falling $38.77 (6%) in MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 16, 2012 7:40 AM ETPosted in: Antitrust, Apple, DOJ, e-books, Hedge fund, iTunes, Jason Schwarz, Quarterly earnings, Steve Jobs -
Why did Apple close Friday at record high $522.41 a share ...
When Tim Cook's failure to announce a dividend was supposed to send it tumbling?
If you spent part of Thursday afternoon, as I did, monitoring the $AAPL tweets, you know that Apple's (AAPL) share price was supposed to go into free fall the moment traders found out that the company was not going to announce a dividend, buyback or stock split at its annual stockholders meeting.
Shares did begin to tumble at MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 24, 2012 6:18 PM ET -
Apple's $90 billion run
The company has gained nearly one Facebook in value since Steve Jobs died
On Oct. 4, the day before Steve Jobs passed away, Apple (AAPL) shares closed at $372.50 and its market cap stood at $347 billion.
Four months later, the stock is up nearly $100 and its market cap is $437 billion. To put that $90 billion gain in perspective, it's nine tenths the value analysts have placed on Facebook in MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 8, 2012 7:09 AM ETPosted in: Andy Zaky, Apple, Bullish Cross, Facebook, Jason Schwarz, Market capitalization, Steve Jobs -
Apple hits a record-high close with over 2 weeks to spare
The slingshot ride in advance of the company's quarterly earnings report has begun early
"If you can keep a good stock down then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate." Jason Schwarz' Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It.
I'm reminded of Jason Schwarz' 2009 quote every time I see a chart like the one at MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 7, 2012 6:29 AM ET -
Riding the AAPL Slingshot
Apple, as hedge fund managers are well aware, is one stock that always bounces back
Whenever I see a chart like the one at right, which traces the trajectory of Apple's (AAPL) share price over the past 36 days, I'm reminded of Jason Schwarz's "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," a supremely cynical view of the stock market that may be the best thing The Street published in all of 2009. MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 7, 2011 6:58 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Financials, Hedge fund, Institutions, Investing, Jason Schwarz, Quarterly earnings, Research in Motion, Steve Jobs, Stock -
Why Apple goes up in the summer and down in winter
There's a seasonality to the company's share price. So beware those January 2012 calls.
With the usual caveat that past performance is no guarantee of anything, two recent reports have uncovered interesting patterns in Apple's (AAPL) share price.
Two weeks ago on Seeking Alpha, Jason Schwarz documented a weekly cycle of Monday lows and Thursday highs. Over the past 32 weeks, he reports, Apple's share price has fallen from Friday to Monday MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 27, 2011 12:09 PM ETPosted in: Andy Zaky, Apple, Bullish Cross, iPhone, Jason Schwarz, Seeking Alpha, Share price, Steve Jobs, Wall Street
