FORTUNE --Peter Misek, the top Apple (AAPL) specialist at Jefferies, has taken a lot of heat lately on two fronts: From investors for his bearish stance on the stock, and from the tech press for starting a basket full of Apple rumors that didn't pan out. At one point this year Cult of Mac assembled A History Of Horrible Apple Predictions From Peter Misek.
But the truth about Misek is that he's neither a bear nor a bull. He's a just an impressionable guy who likes to travel a lot, reports just about everything he sees and hears, and comes back believing whatever he was told last. (See here, here, here and here.)
Case in point: The report he filed Monday -- after his most recent trip to Asia -- in which he flipped his Apple recommendation from Hold to Buy and raised his price target nearly 50%, from $405 (one of the lowest on the Street) to an above-consensus $600.
The report was a typical Misek travelog, complete with Japanese iPhone 5S availability posters and a trunkful of industry gossip.
Among the highlights:
Misek is about as confident about that last one -- the iPhone 6 with the jumbo screen -- as he was last year about the imminent arrival of what he now calls "this unicorn," an Apple HDTV.
But as even Cult of Mac acknowledges, Misek sometimes gets it right.
Back from China with tales of iWatches, iTVs, fingerprint IDs and iPhones in three sizes.
FORTUNE -- I can never tell with analysts who go on extended walkabouts in the Far East if they're getting the inside dope from their contacts in Apple's (AAPL) supply chain or if they're just getting spun.
Case in point: Topeka Capital's Brian White, who has been filing dispatches from China and Taiwan for more than a week.
On MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 9, 2013 11:25 AM ET
Survey finds Americans more keen to buy an "iTV" than they were the iPhone or iPad
FORTUNE -- Opinions about whether Apple (AAPL) is about to enter the TV set market are about as sharply divided as Fox News and MSNBC. You're either in the Gene Munster camp (It's coming, for sure, in 2013!) or in Jean-Louis Gassée's (It's a pipe dream!).
Whichever party you belong to, there's much to be gleaned MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 11, 2012 8:03 AM ET
The company's prospects for a near-term TV breakthrough appear to be bleak
FORTUNE -- It's hard to know what to make of the signals coming out of the meetings with individual analysts Apple's (AAPL) executive staff has been holding lately. SEC rules prohibit the company from sharing insider information that might have a material affect on the value of the company's stock. Yet analysts often publish notes to clients implying that MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 24, 2012 9:52 AM ET
One says Apple's iTV is already in production. Another says it won't arrive before 2014
FORTUNE -- Jefferies' Peter Misek is full of confident predictions in a note to clients issued Friday. Based on his supply chain checks and sales data out of Taiwan, he believes:
iPad builds for Apple's (AAPL) September quarter have been increased to 25 million from 18 million and to 30 million from 22-25 million for December.
That the MORE
Pouring cold water on one of Silicon Valley's hottest rumors
FORTUNE -- Although there is no shortage of iTV speculation -- thanks to rumor sites like Taipei-based DigiTimes -- and plenty of Apple (AAPL) analysts ready to calculate to the penny how much an Apple-branded TV set would add to the company's bottom line, some experts have started to back away from what was once seen as an inevitablity.
In December, Richard Gardner, formerly MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 14, 2012 1:27 PM ET
The latest "confirmation" that Apple is building a TV set turns out to be another soufflé
FORTUNE -- It is perhaps a measure of how badly broken today's commercial TV viewing experience is -- the cookie-cutter sitcoms, the ridiculous reality shows, the ever-shifting channel line-ups, the relentless, merciless commercial breaks -- that the tech press is so desperate to believe even the slimmest rumor that Apple (AAPL) is getting ready to solve MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 14, 2012 8:16 AM ET
Apple's next big thing, an analyst speculates, is more likely to be mobile payments
FORTUNE -- If I didn't already agree with him, Mike Moskowitz's note to clients Thursday would have convinced me.
"We do not expect Apple TV this year," wrote J.P. Morgan's chief Apple (AAPL) watcher. "Our research does not indicate any looming TV-related product launch, and our model does not incorporate any potential impact from a TV device at this time. MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 3, 2012 11:49 AM ET
After four years of speculation there's still not a shred of hard evidence
A lot of analysts talk about Apple's (AAPL) plans to make a television -- an actual TV set, not just a set-top box -- but last week, Jefferies' Peter Misek did something most have been careful not to do.
Citing "increased confidence" that Apple's iTV is coming, he wrote into his published forecasts the revenue from its sales: 2 million MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 17, 2012 4:30 PM ET
A giant solar array? An huge fuel cell facility? A second 500,000 sq. ft. data center?
I'm not sure I buy the main reason Jefferies' Peter Misek gave today for raising his Apple (AAPL) price target to $800 from $699: His "increased confidence" Apple is going to release the much-rumored iTV in the fourth quarter of 2012.
My own confidence that Apple is going to get into the television manufacturing business is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 5, 2012 11:42 AM ET
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