Apple is selling iPhones as fast as it can make them, but that may not be fast enough
Chinese queue up for iPhone 4S. Photo: iWorld
A pair of analyst reports Tuesday warn that Apple (AAPL) may be having trouble feeding the demand for iPhones in advance of the holiday selling season.
In a note entitled "Limited near-term upside for iPhone," Rodman & Renshaw's Ashok Kumar alerted clients that low yields on an unidentified "key component" is likely to constrain production of the iPhone 4S this quarter.
"Layering on the estimated 4 million iPhone 4S that were manufactured (but not shipped) in the September quarter, overall iPhone shipments in the December quarter could come in around 30 million units or below street estimates."
For the record, 30 million units is 3 million more than Kumar's own 27 million estimate, which he described in October as representing a "strong rebound."
Meanwhile, Susquehanna's Jeff Fidacaro cites equally vague "supply constraints" in a report that suggests a 2-3 million reduction in iPhone 4S builds for the quarter. Accordingly, he is reducing his iPhone 4S production estimates from 26-28 million to 23-25 million.
But "store checks suggest that demand remain solid," he writes, and when he throws in the iPhone 3GS and the iPhone 4, his total iPhone production forecast for the quarter is 29-34 million units.
Considering that Apple sold 16.24 million iPhones in the December quarter last year, that represents somewhere between 79% and 101% growth year over year.
Not too shabby. Which makes you wonder why these notes are being cast as warnings.
Who gets hurt most by Apple's entry into the $250-$400 mobile phone market?
Click to enlarge.
In a 36-page report to clients issued Monday, a Credit Suisse team led by Kulbinder Garcha took a close look at the iPhone's price elasticity -- Econ 101 jargon for the question: "If I lower the price of my widget, how many more will I sell?"
Garcha et al.'s focus is the iPhone 3GS, which Apple (AAPL) MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 22, 2011 7:06 AM ET
The crowd of 350-400 was smaller than the ones that showed up for the iPad and iPad 2
We counted 352 heads before shooting this video. By the time Apple (AAPL) staffers opened the doors at 8:00 a.m., it had probably grown to 400.
We counted 330 at this store for the launch of the iPhone 3GS, 500-600 for the launch of the original iPad and nearly 1,200 for the iPad 2.
Judging from the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 14, 2011 10:01 AM ET
Piper Jaffray's estimate of 20% looks bullish by comparison. It looks crazy to us.
Click to enlarge. Source: Asymco
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray's longtime Apple (AAPL) analyst, issued his estimates for calendar 2013 on Wednesday. The highlights:
Revenues of $164 billion (8% higher than The Street)
Earnings of $40.50 per share (10% higher)
Revenue growth slowing from 82% the June 2011 quarter to 20% in 2013.
The consensus among investors he polled was that growth MORE
The iPhone 4 now ships on Apple.com within 5-7 business days, faster even than the iPhone 3GS.
For the first time since Apple (AAPL) launched the iPhone 4 on June 24, the company's online store shows it shipping in less than a week. Customers who prefer the $99 iPhone 3GS, however, will have to wait a bit longer. Shipments for that model have slipped to 1-2 weeks.
Still no sign of the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 5, 2010 10:42 AM ET
Builds are up 5%-10% this quarter, by one report, and ramping up another 10%-15% the next.
Photo: Apple Inc.
While Google's (GOOG) Android and Nokia's (NOK) Symbian^3 phones have been grabbing the headlines lately, Apple (AAPL) quietly "continues to execute," as Sterne Agee's Vijay Rakesh put it in an understated note to clients issued Wednesday.
Apple is still posting a 3-week delay on all online iPhone 4 orders despite what Rakesh describes MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 15, 2010 12:02 PM ET
Bug fixes, better photos, 99-cent TV rentals and new ways to play games with friends
Photo: AppleInsider
As Steve Jobs promised last week, Apple (AAPL) released a major update Wednesday of the operating system that runs its iPhone 4, iPhone 3GS and iPhone 3G. The new iPod touch released today comes with the software, called iOS 4.1, built in.
The free download takes about five minutes.
This is supposed to be the first MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 8, 2010 3:09 PM ET
Reader discusses intangibles like screen size when moving from iPhone to Sprint's EVO.
I would like to add a couple of points [on the iPhone vs. Flagship Androids post].
I have the Apple 3GS and the EVO 4G. I have found the battery on the Evo to be as good or better! For example I last charged the Evo 18 hours ago and still have 60%. I used it for moderate usage, MORE
Seth Weintraub - Jun 8, 2010 12:09 PM ET
Fortune contributor Michal Lev-Ram talks to AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega about the carrier's efforts to strengthen its wireless network.
Mason Cohn, Producer - Mar 30, 2010 12:27 PM ETBen Baer, Senior Producer - Jan 5, 2010 7:14 PM ET
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