The picture is even more striking than it was a month ago
In February, Jonathan Golub at UBS started a new fashion on the Street by publishing two versions of his regular quarterly forecast: one for the S&P 500, and another for what he called the "S&P 500 ex-Apple."
Strategists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and Wells Fargo soon followed suit.
In Golub's February calculation, the S&P 500's Q1 2012 earnings were on MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 25, 2012 6:21 PM ET
There is a precedent: iPhone sales have doubled, on average, every year since 2007
The chief difference between the independent analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) and their counterparts on Wall Street is that the independents put a premium on being right.
The professionals, with all due respect, seem to care more about not over-promising or straying too far from the consensus. (See here, here and here, for example.)
So investors who want informed MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 22, 2012 5:20 AM ET
If you're in L.A. Thursday or Friday, join us at the Apple Investors Summit
We'll be speaking, along with Steve Jobs biographer Walter Isaacson, Apple (AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak, Fortune's Adam Lashinsky, Asymco's Horace Dediu, Bullish Cross's Andy Zaky, Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitau, AAPLPain's Travis Lewis, The Street's Jason Schwarz and many more.
To register, click here.Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 14, 2012 5:07 AM ET
Unless something changes fast, they're all going to be Androids and iPhones
ComScore issued its January snapshot of the U.S. mobile phone market Tuesday -- with accompanying pie chart here -- but if you want to understand what the numbers mean you should check out Horace Dediu's Wednesday morning report on Asymco.com.
Dediu seems to be the only analyst who tracks these monthly reports over time. Graphing two years of comScore data MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 7, 2012 8:26 AM ET
Is it a flash in the pan or one of those rare companies that defines an era?
Investors, analysts and business historians have been struggling in the weeks since Apple's (AAPL) most recent earnings report to make sense of this corporate oddity: a mega-cap company ($487.1 billion) that grows like a start-up (first quarter earnings up 115.7%).
Since November, when it pulled decisively away from Exxon Mobil (XOM), Apple has been the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 26, 2012 6:28 AM ET
Technically, it was Hudson Square's Daniel Ernst. But we have a few caveats.
Eyebrows were raised in October 2010 when Daniel Ernst hiked his 12-month Apple (AAPL) price target from $300 a share to $500. But perhaps drawing attention to himself was the point. The senior analyst at Hudson Square Research is now a regular contributor on CNBC and his current price target -- $700 -- is once again the Street's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 11, 2012 6:15 AM ET
And that percentage is likely to increase sharply now that China has the iPhone 4S
The chart at right from Horace Dediu's Asymco blog shows the U.S. share of iPhone activations growing last quarter due, he speculates, to the U.S. launch of the iPhone 4S and the addition of a third domestic carrier, Sprint (S).
But the long-term trend is clear. The U.S. is becoming a progressively less important market for sales of Apple's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 10, 2012 7:06 AM ET
Two ways of seeing how well (or badly) the pros and amateurs predict Apple's earnings
We've been trying for several years to find the best way to show how much better the so-called amateur analysts (some of whom have since gone pro) are at estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings than the Wall Street professionals who do it for the big banks and brokerage firms.
Now Asymco's Horace Dediu, who is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 6, 2012 10:59 AM ET
Between them, Samsung and Apple are sucking up 91% of the winnings
Asymco's Horace Dediu on Friday updated his quarterly review of mobile phone profits, and the news for everybody but Apple (AAPL) just gets worse.
As the iPhone's share of the market in terms of units shipped has grown from 3% in second quarter of 2010 to 8.7% last quarter, Apple's share of the profits has swelled from 39% to 75%.
Dediu's chart of MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 3, 2012 8:20 AM ET
Apple's mobile phone shipments nearly doubled in 2011, overtaking LG and ZTE
On the strength of sales of the iPhone 4S last quarter, Apple (AAPL) jumped two spots in IDC's ranking of the world's five largest manufacturers of mobile phones -- smart or otherwise.
In a press release issued Wednesday, IDC reported that weakness in the demand for so-called feature phones dragged down market growth in the Christmas quarter -- usually the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 2, 2012 8:18 AM ET
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