To state the obvious: iTunes music downloads are down while downloads of apps are up sharply: 35% year over year and 50% in December alone.
But what's really changed, he believes, is how people are spending their time.
"Consumers have a fixed time budget, a more rigid constraint than their spending budget. Competition for a slice of a consumer's time budget is far tougher than competition for a slice of a consumer's wallet. So what's amazing is that apps have successfully grabbed a share of this time budget."
For now, apps are mostly filling downtime or "boredom." But as the experiences they offer become richer and more compelling they could move upmarket into Hollywood's territory -- with casual gaming and social media apps, for example, become increasingly addictive and taking over time that used to be spent watching TV.
"This is the insidious march of a disruptor," Dediu writes. "It gains a foothold in a context where it has no competition and then relentlessly gets better, eventually displacing the far better suited alternatives. This is what I believe is happening with apps. They are asymmetric in their competition with established media and as a result they are easily ignored and brushed off as irrelevant competition. That is until the incumbent media sees a sudden drop in consumption. Even then, the culprit blamed is not the upstart but some structural issue...
"The angst and trauma suffered by the media industry when dealing with what could be seen as a trivial change in the encoding of content [i.e. from analog to digital] are the stuff of lore and legend. Moving to apps could be even more troubling. Mainly because there is already a distribution channel in place. And it's owned by a set of companies whose motives and business models are completely different."
LINK: Of bits and big bucks.
Harrison Ford speaks at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference about being an environmentalist on the side.
FORTUNE -- Of course you know Harrison Ford, but did you know that in his spare time, the actor is the vice-chair of non-profit Conservation International? He joined the group, he told audience members Monday at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference in Laguna Niguel, Calif., for a bit of a breather from his Hollywood life.
"I became involved MOREShelley DuBois, writer-reporter - Apr 29, 2013 6:25 PM ET
A video of Aaron Sorkin's favorite lines goes viral. The L.A. Times sees trouble for biopic
FORTUNE -- "This video is a tribute to the work of Aaron Sorkin: The recycled dialogue, recurring phrases, and familiar plot lines. This is not intended as a critique but rather a playful excursion through Sorkin's wonderful world of words."
That's the description Kevin T. Porter wrote when he posted his brilliant 7:22 minute homage to Hollywood's MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 5, 2012 6:17 AM ET
Apple's CEO left the master of dysfunctional relationships a lot of material to work with
FORTUNE -- Viewers who have followed Aaron Sorkin's TV and film work over the years were delighted to learn Tuesday that one of Hollywood's most gifted screenwriters has officially signed on to adapt Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs for Sony Pictures' (SNE) film.
Sorkin is the master of romantic relationships that are painfully, hilariously dysfunctional. The MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 16, 2012 11:35 AM ET
FORTUNE -- When Disney released its new Muppets movie, the studio made use of a different kind of focus group to predict box office sales: the Twittersphere. Big movie studios are increasingly tapping into hundreds of thousands of tweets to plot their marketing strategies, deciding which trailers and ad campaigns work, and even whom they should cast in their next films. Disney (DIS) gets its social media data from a MOREFeb 29, 2012 5:00 AM ET
The major film studios think they've found a way to sell and deliver movies online. Will consumers buy it?
By Robert Levine, contributor
FORTUNE -- Consumers who recently purchased Warner Brothers' final Harry Potter film on DVD or Blu-ray found a surprise in the package: a digital copy of the movie in the new UltraViolet format. Although the name is not yet familiar, UltraViolet represents Hollywood's first step into the cloud MOREFeb 3, 2012 5:00 AM ET
The hardware is the easy part. The trick is to get Hollywood on board
"Apple enters markets to reinvent them," wrote Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster in a note to clients Tuesday reiterating his oft-repeated conviction that Apple's (AAPL) next big thing is an Apple-branded television set.
To be sure, Munster has scaled back his expectations since he predicted that the company would sell 6.6 million Apple TV set-top boxes in 2009 and MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 1, 2012 7:02 AM ET
DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg didn't mince words on the state of Hollywood. Plus, he told us which Pixar film was a "bad idea."
FORTUNE -- With summer in full swing and popcorn flicks like Captain America and Harry Potter opening with robust ticket sales, you'd think Hollywood execs would be beaming. But DreamWorks Animation CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg has some beef with his industry. According to Katzenberg, audiences are flocking to theaters, MOREJP Mangalindan, Writer - Jul 29, 2011 11:01 AM ET
Dreamworks CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg sat down with Fortune's Andy Serwer to discuss 3D technology, joining the Zynga board, and why movies suck this summer.
Below is an unedited transcript
ANDY SERWER: Good afternoon, again. Please join me in welcoming Jeffrey Katzenberg, who is, of course, the co-founder and CEO of DreamWorks Animation SAG. And you all know Jeffrey as a movie studio executive, but he's actually a lot more than that. He's MOREFortune Editors - Jul 19, 2011 8:12 PM ET
More fallout from the botched update of the Mac's professional video editing software
Four days after Apple (AAPL) released Final Cut Pro X, the latest version of its top-of-the-line video editing software, the repercussions are still rippling through Hollywood and the tech press.
David Pogue, who gave it a positive review in Thursday's New York Times, was forced to revisit his assessment that afternoon. "In 10 years of writing Times columns, I've MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 25, 2011 11:44 AM ET
|AT&T cuts prices again|
|The medical marijuana ad that never aired, despite contrary media headlines|
|Winners and losers of the bull market|
|Can Fox's reboot of 'Cosmos' find an audience?|
|Chrysler Group orders donated Vipers destroyed|