Katy Huberty, Morgan Stanley's chief Apple (AAPL) analyst, issued an elaborate report Monday entitled AAPL: How Do You Do Risk Management? that I can't pretend to understand completely -- not even the title.
But two takeaways are clear: (I quote)
Expanding on that second point, she writes:
"According to our equity quality model, AAPL has consistently held a junk bias since 1983 (Exhibit 12). Initiating a dividend is positive for ascending to quality in our model, but it takes time for both earnings and dividends to register as stable (or stably growing). Moreover, the high share base turnover is typically associated with a lower quality equity. Thus, AAPL is likely to continue to exhibit lower quality bias for the near-to-medium term. Indeed, AAPL has not traded like an appreciably higher quality equity since its dividend announcement. In fact, it has traded off in the recent risk-off market more like a low- than a high-quality stock." (emphasis hers)
Below the fold: Huberty's Exhibit 12 and a couple of other charts that I could understand.
Why would a stock like Apple fall 10% just before quarterly earnings are due?
MONDAY 4:00 p.m. UPDATE: Throw another -4.15% on the barbie. One analyst called today's selloff "panic profit taking."
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I think it may be time once again to dust off Jason Schwarz' classic blog post: Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It.
Apple's (AAPL) shares, in case you missed it, took a drubbing last week, falling $38.77 (6%) in MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 16, 2012 7:40 AM ET
The host of CNBC's Mad Money makes it his first pick in the "ultimate growth portfolio"
It's easy to forget, amid the boo-yahs, the bluster and the silly sound effects, that Jim Cramer (magna cum laude, Harvard 1977) is smarter than the average talking head on CNBC.
And having famously explained how, as a hedge fund manager, he could manipulate Apple's (AAPL) share price by spreading false iPhone rumors, he redeemed himself somewhat MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 10, 2012 6:35 AM ET
When Tim Cook's failure to announce a dividend was supposed to send it tumbling?
If you spent part of Thursday afternoon, as I did, monitoring the $AAPL tweets, you know that Apple's (AAPL) share price was supposed to go into free fall the moment traders found out that the company was not going to announce a dividend, buyback or stock split at its annual stockholders meeting.
Shares did begin to tumble at MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 24, 2012 6:18 PM ET
Of 350 funds tracked by Insider Monkey, 125 are long on Apple
Apple is a perennial favorite among hedge funds, and a recent survey of insiders and hedge fund managers suggest that it may be more popular than ever among the folks with the power to move the market up or down.
In a list of companies with recent insider trades posted on Seeking Alpha by Insider Monkey, a free (after registration) site MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 23, 2011 10:37 AM ET
Apple, as hedge fund managers are well aware, is one stock that always bounces back
It's hard not to be cynical about Wall Street when you see a chart like the one at right, which traces Apple's (AAPL) share price over the past four weeks.
It not terribly surprising that the stock has shot up nearly 20% in the past two weeks to close at an all-time high Friday of $422. The iPhone 4S MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 15, 2011 7:35 AM ET
Strike prices range from $335 to $400 as traders scramble to deal with a market in free fall
A hedge-fund trader hoping to make some quick money in Apple (AAPL) weekly options would be hard-pressed to make sense of the chart at right, a snapshot of thinkorswim.com's AAPL options board taken at 10:30 a.m. Monday morning.
The bottom two graphs show open interest in Apple weekly calls (left) and puts (right) as of MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 8, 2011 11:35 AM ET
Apple, as hedge fund managers are well aware, is one stock that always bounces back
Whenever I see a chart like the one at right, which traces the trajectory of Apple's (AAPL) share price over the past 36 days, I'm reminded of Jason Schwarz's "Apple: Seven Reasons Shorts Love It," a supremely cynical view of the stock market that may be the best thing The Street published in all of 2009. MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 7, 2011 6:58 AM ET
Who's behind the weekly Max Pain phenomenon that has become the tail that wags the dog?
In our ongoing quest to understand what part the trade in weekly Apple (AAPL) options plays in keeping the company's stock price from reflecting its performance (see here, here and here), we had a chat the other day with Mark Sebastian, a former market maker at the Chicago Board Options Exchange who posts frequently on MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 27, 2011 8:53 AM ET
The pullback in advance of the company's Q2 earnings report has gone far enough
"If you can keep a good stock down, then you are able to load up for the ride back up. It's like a slingshot -- the harder you pull, the more propulsion you generate."
That's how Jason Schwarz, an author and investment adviser, described the game that hedge funds play with Apple (AAPL) in an article entitled "Apple: MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 16, 2011 2:20 PM ET