It's a piece of cake, he says. Just take the company's revenue guidance and add 15%
In a 5,000-word essay posted in Bullish Cross Monday, Andy Zaky laid out his method for estimating Apple's (AAPL) quarterly revenue and earnings numbers. He starts with three assumptions:
That most Wall Street analysts and financial writers are completely clueless and couldn't analyze their way out of a paper bag
That the earnings guidance numbers Apple issues each quarter MORE
Setting the stage for a monstrous Christmas selling season
It's been a busy fortnight for Apple (AAPL), between the Let's Talk iPhone special event, the death of Steve Jobs, the launch of the iPhone 4S and Sunday's star-studded memorial service. Next week we'll get the worldwide laydown of Walter Isaacson's Steve Jobs, the only biography written with Jobs' cooperation, launching another round of media overkill (starting with next Sunday's 60 Minutes).
But today is about MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 18, 2011 8:35 AM ET
Sold a record 20.34 million iPhones, 9.25 million iPads and 3.95 million Macs
Apple's (AAPL) third fiscal quarter was bigger than the most optimistic estimates. Even without a new iPhone to drive sales, revenues, earnings and profits were bigger than the biggest Christmas quarter.
Apple also announced that OS X Lion is coming tomorrow (Wednesday).
The iPhone and iPad numbers were huge surprises. Sales of the iPod, as expected, continued to fall. Only MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 19, 2011 4:57 PM ET
A big Q3 is a given. Just look at what the stock has done lately. But the devil is in the details
The Street has fallen back in love with Apple (AAPL). "Get ready for the return of the wow factor," J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz told clients last week just before the stock put the finishing touches on a 28-day, $58.48 (18.5%) run that took it to $373.80 Monday afternoon, an MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 19, 2011 7:48 AM ET
Estimates from 48 analysts forecast earnings growth between 50% and 107% year over year
This was a busy week for last-minute revisions from the Wall Street analysts that follow Apple (AAPL). The spreadsheet above shows the final estimates we've collected -- barring still more revisions -- from four dozen amateurs and professionals, along with each analyst's rank, where available, in our earnings smackdowns for Q1 and Q2.
An amateur, Traderhood's Nicolae Mihalache, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 15, 2011 12:22 PM ET
Sales were up 83% and earnings up 92% on 18.65 million iPhones and 3.76 million Macs
As expected, Apple (AAPL) reported record second quarter earnings Wednesday, blowing past its own guidance and Wall Street's expectations in everything but iPad sales.
"With quarterly revenue growth of 83 percent and profit growth of 95 percent, we're firing on all cylinders," said Steve Jobs in a prepared statement that said nothing about those iPad numbers. MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 20, 2011 5:01 PM ET
Asymco's Horace Dediu describes his latest graphic as "Apple's growth, cost structure, product-level and overall profitability in a self-explanatory chart," although judging from our experience and his readers' comments, the chart is not totally self-explanatory.Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 22, 2010 6:48 AM ET
What to watch for Monday when the company reports its fiscal fourth quarter earnings
Apple's (AAPL) shares have been on a tear since late August, soaring nearly $75 (more than 30%) to close Friday at an all-time record $314.74.
Whether that proves to be the top of a long bull run or the start of an even bigger one depends on how investors react to the results scheduled to be released at MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 18, 2010 6:53 AM ET
A big Q3 is a given. That makes it especially hard to predict which way the stock will jump.
Assuming Apple (AAPL) reports record third quarter revenue and earnings this afternoon -- the Street is looking for year-over-year increases of 51% and 54%, respectively, according to Thomson Financial -- what else is there to say?
Like Kaufman Bros.'s Shaw Wu, who issued yet another note to clients this morning, we're expecting Apple MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 20, 2010 10:28 AM ET
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