Generator Research

How Apple could sell 77 million iPhones in 2013

January 14, 2009: 9:32 AM ET

Generator Research cover artTwo very different iPhone reports -- with very different perspectives -- were published this week.

One, from Citigroup's Richard Gardner, focused on the short-term. He looked at inventory levels in Apple's supplier channels, saw levels coming down, concluded that iPhone sales over the holidays were soft, and lowered his Apple (AAPL) price targets for the next three years.

The other, from Generator Research's Andrew Sheehy, took the long view. He reviewed Apple's performance over the last eight years, saw what it had done to the music industry with the iPod and iTunes, compared the services offered by the iPhone/App Store with those offered by traditional cellphone manufacturers, and concluded that Apple could dominate the smartphone market within four years with a 40% share, shipping as many as 77 million units a year.

Sheehy's report is more ambitious -- and a lot more interesting -- than Gardner's, so we take closer look at it below the fold:  More

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