Gene Munster
Handicapping the Apple news at today's developers conference
June 10, 2013: 7:03 AM ETMunster puts iRadio at 80%, MacBook Air at 40%, iWallet at 20%, Apple TV apps at 10%.
FORTUNE -- With the Tim Cook's keynote address at Apple's (AAPL) World Wide Developers Conference only hours away, there's no shortage of speculation from Apple bloggers and Apple analysts about what's in store. But only Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has assigned percentages to the possible announcements.
Excerpts from his Monday morning note to clients:
- 90% Chance of Redesigned iOS. "It will be the first time in 6 years that Apple will tweak its world class innovative interface. Overall, we believe making these changes is the right move for Apple given consumers are increasingly interested in some fresh ideas from Apple around the iOS interface. The risk of doing nothing is greater than the risk of disrupting the winning iOS formula."
- 80% Chance of "iRadio" Ad Supported Music Service. "If Apple were to equal Pandora's Street revenue estimate in CY14 of $875m, it would add about 0.5% to overall Apple revenue. More importantly, we view the music offering as an opportunity to show consumers that they can deliver new, useful services with great experiences to make up for disappointments in Mobile Me and Maps.
- 80% Chance of New Maps & Update To Siri. "Apple will likely takes steps to improve points of interest on maps (launched last year at WWDC) and add additional partners to Siri."
- 40% Chance of New Macbook Air. "We estimate about 40% of all Mac's are Macbook Air. Overall, the Mac business accounts for about 12% of sales and is not a long term growth business."
- 20% Chance of iPhone 5S and Digital Wallet. "Tim Cook made it clear that new products start in the fall of this year, but there is an outside chance that iPhone 5S sneaks into WWDC. We believe the incremental feature will be around biometric security, which could ultimately enable the digital wallet, addressing waiting in line at retails, receipt management and loyalty programs."
- 10% Chance of App Store For Apple TV. "Our confidence remains high that Apple will have an actual TV announced by year end and ship in the first part of 2014 based on comments from Tim Cook at the D11 conference two weeks ago. We think there is an outside chance that Apple introduces an App Store for the existing Apple TV, which would enable Apple to begin gathering developers ahead of the full television launch. Overall, we believe if the TV were to ship in the first part of 2014, it could add 10% to the Street's CY14 revenue and 4% to earnings (assuming 10% of the connected TV market or 11 million units at $1,750, with a 15% gross margin)."
No one who has followed Munster's Apple coverage will surprised by the mention of "an actual TV." See What Gene Munster heard Tim Cook say about an Apple TV set.
The keynote starts at 10 a.m. PST (1 p.m. EST). Adam Lashinsky and JP Mangalindan will be covering it for Fortune. I'll be at the e-book antitrust trial, where the judge is starting to see things Apple's way.
UPDATE: As several readers have mention, Apple will be streaming the keynote live from its Special Events page.
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What Gene Munster heard Tim Cook say about an Apple TV set
Were we listening to the same AllThingsD interview?
FORTUNE -- "We felt that after viewing the conversation, it seems fairly certain that Apple will launch a television, a watch, and multiple iterations of the iPhone by the end of 2014 as well as a potential new service offering."
That's how Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster -- an Apple (AAPL) analyst who has been predicting the imminent arrival of an Apple television set since MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 29, 2013 1:22 PM ET -
How much damage a cheaper iPhone does to Apple's profit margins
Fears of 30% by 2015 are overblown, says Gene Munster, but he's lowering his target.
FORTUNE -- So confident are analysts that Apple (AAPL) is getting ready to launch a lower-cost iPhone that some have started building the new device -- which none have ever seen -- into spreadsheets like the one at right issued Thursday by Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster.
What these analysts are not so sure about is what kind MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 10, 2013 7:16 AM ET -
What a sell-side Apple analyst thinks the buy side is thinking
The expectations of institutions that sell and those that buy are two different things.
FORTUNE -- In a note to clients issued Monday afternoon, 24 hours before Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to release its earnings for the March quarter, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster talked about something we don't hear much about: The so-called buy side.
Buy side is Wall Street jargon for those investing institutions such as mutual funds, pension funds and insurance MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 22, 2013 7:17 PM ETPosted in: Apple, Buy side, Gene Munster, GM, Gross margin, iPhone, Piper Jaffray, Quarterly earnings, Sell side -
By 5 to 1, Apple's iPhone 5 out-tweeted Samsung's Galaxy S4
Ironically, the Galaxy tweets had more "positive bias" than the iPhone's
FORTUNE -- Is Twitter the new measure of commercial buzz? Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster seems to think so.
In a note to clients issued Wednesday he offers as evidence that Apple's (AAPL) smartphone "holds more mass appeal with consumers" the fact that there were five times as many tweets (2.4 million) about the iPhone 5 on the day of and the day MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 27, 2013 5:22 PM ET -
A long-time Apple bull tries to lower investors' expectations
Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster says growth may not return until the back half of 2013
FORTUNE -- In February, Gene Munster predicted that Apple (AAPL) would get a boost this quarter from product announcements in March or April.
With March almost over and the quarter ending on Saturday, Piper Jaffray's senior Apple analyst issued a note to clients Tuesday warning that the company will have to get through a dry patch before MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 26, 2013 6:43 AM ET -
In Piper Jaffray re-test, Siri raises her grade from a D to a C
In a quiet room, the latest version understood 91% of questions, correctly answered 77%
FORTUNE -- Siri is a little like the weather. Everybody complains about it, but only Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster seems to do anything.
In June he put the iOS 5 version of Apple's (AAPL) voice-activated personal assistant to the test -- asking her 1,600 questions, 800 in the streets of Minneapolis and 800 in a quiet room.
The results MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 20, 2012 9:05 AM ET -
Survey: 53.3% of smartphone buyers plan to buy an iPhone 5
Android is No. 2 at 35.3%. Windows Phone trails at 6.5%
FORTUNE -- Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has been analyzing Twitter comments and polling a group of more than 800 consumers to try to gauge demand for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5. On Thursday he released his latest findings:
As summarized by the chart above, interest in buying an iPhone 5 in the next three months jumped from 47.7% to 54.9% after it MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 13, 2012 11:39 AM ET -
Munster: 4 more reasons Apple got clobbered Wednesday
Piper Jaffray's chief Apple enthusiast comes to the defense of the embattled stock
FORTUNE -- With Apple's (AAPL) shares off more than 6% Wednesday, there was no shortage of theories about what was driving all the selling. We highlighted one -- Apple's failure to issue a special dividend -- earlier today. In a note to clients a few hours later, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster addressed four more:
Digitimes Article Appears To Be MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 5, 2012 2:59 PM ET -
A guide to Apple's guidance
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
The numbers Apple issues tend to be laughably conservative; the company always prefers to under- rather than over-promise. Nonetheless its MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 24, 2012 8:15 AM ETPosted in: Apple, Bernstein, EPS, Gene Munster, Guidance, Piper Jaffray, Quarterly earnings, Revenue, Siddarth Dalal, Toni Sacconaghi
