FORTUNE -- Apple (AAPL) had only just begun taking iPhone 5C pre-orders Sunday when Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker closed the books on Q3 2013, but the survey had already registered a bump in buyer interest in the company's line of smartphones.
According to a note to clients posted early Wednesday by Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, the survey's data suggest sales of 34.5 million iPhones in calendar Q3 (Apple's fiscal Q4).
That's 11% better than the consensus forecast of 31 million, and 28% higher than the 26.9 million Apple sold in the same quarter last year.
But it's not better than AlphaWise's estimate of Samsung Galaxy sales. Those are forecast at 47 million, 2 million (4.4%) better than the Street's consensus.
See chart below.
Huberty on methodology: "Our tracker includes Web search data through Sept 15, which incorporates the iPhone announcement on Sept 10 and the start of pre-orders on Sept 13. Our tracker includes the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, China and Japan, which are all countries launching the new iPhones this week. Our model projects demand for the rest of September assuming demand trends post last week's announcement follow a similar pattern as 2012."
Where are the video bloggers raising questions about Samsung's decline?
FORTUNE -- Did you miss the report Monday about the Samsung Galaxy S3 that caught fire in the pants pocket of a Swiss teenager, sending out shoulder-high flames and inflicting second- and third-degree burns on her right thigh?
I'm not surprised. These things can happen in any device powered by lithium-ion batteries, and the news of such incidents tends to fly under the MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 9, 2013 11:13 AM ET
Google Trends says Apple beats low expectations, Samsung momentum stays strong.
FORTUNE -- Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty unveiled a new crowdsourced forecasting tool Tuesday. As explained in an April whitepaper, the AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker is based on an analysis of Google Trends, using different search terms for different regions and adjusting for seasonal trends.
The results of the first month's survey of the U.S., U.K., German, French, Japanese and Chinese markets are shown in the chart above.
As MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 22, 2013 7:09 PM ET
But Samsung isn't falling behind the iPhone as fast as it was in February or March.
FORTUNE -- Google's (GOOG) Android, at 52%, took the largest share of U.S. smartphone sales in the three month period (Jan. - Mar.) covered by comScore's report Friday. But it managed to lose 1.4 percentage points sequentially, while Apple (AAPL), at 39%, gained 2.7.
In the Apple vs. Samsung competition, Apple widened its U.S. lead, which MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 4, 2013 10:56 AM ET
The race may be closer than you think
FORTUNE -- Lacking hard numbers (because Samsung doesn't release them anymore) most analysts assume that the bulk of the Korean manufacturer's mobile sales come from its low-end phones. According to Raymond James' Tavis McCourt, Samsung's high-end Galaxy line outsold the iPhone only once -- in the summer of 2012, when many of Apple's (AAPL) customers were holding out for the iPhone 5.
Thanks to Barrons' MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 16, 2013 3:21 PM ET
Apple will get its second day in court, but must narrow its claims to Samsung's benefit
FORTUNE -- "I don't know if we need two cases on this," Judge Lucy Koh told attorneys for Apple (AAPL) and Samsung last month. She was referring to two suits Apple filed against Samsung in her U.S. District Court alleging infringement of two sets of patents by two sets of Samsung devices.
Apple won the first case, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 9, 2013 11:55 AM ET
Apple is like Obama after the first debate, says TBWA-Chiat-Day's former creative director
FORTUNE -- Ken Segall worked with Steve Jobs for 14 years, during which time he put the i in iMac and found the thread that links Albert Einstein and Amelia Earhart. But though he no longer works as a creative director at TBWA/Chiat/Day, Segall is still keeping a close eye on Apple's (AAPL) marketing efforts on his Observatory blog.
And he MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 26, 2013 6:57 AM ET
Samsung's commercials are telling stories. Apple's are pushing product.
FORTUNE -- At $1.6 to $1.8 million per 30-sec. spot, the Academy Awards are second only to the Superbowl as a high-value stage for advertisers to strut their stuff before a massive TV audience.
Apple (AAPL) ceded the Superbowl to Samsung, whose ad-agency sendup starring Seth Rogan and Paul Rudd ended up going viral on YouTube with more than 21 million hits.
The Oscars MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 25, 2013 7:58 AM ET
Samsung had 29%, according to Canaccord Genuity. The rest got nothing.
FORTUNE -- Can you spot the problem with the pie chart at right? If you noticed that the two slices add up to more than 100%, you're on the right track.
Last quarter, Apple (AAPL) and Samsung so dominated the worldwide market for mobile phones (smart and dumb) that the rest of the manufacturers -- including Nokia (NOK), Motorola (GOOG), BlackBerry MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 6, 2013 3:36 PM ET
According to Chitika, the iPad has recovered somewhat from its post-Christmas dip
FORTUNE -- There was some consternation among Apple (AAPL) investors in early January when the Chitika Ad Network -- which sells data about the online activities of hundreds of millions of users to its advertising clients -- published a version of the chart at right. It showed the iPad's share of North American tablet Web traffic dropping 7.14% in MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 6, 2013 8:29 AM ET
|Homeless college students seek shelter during breaks|
|Five things you didn't know about Bernie Madoff's epic scam|
|Snowden docs had NYTimes exec fearing for his life|
|Budget deal hits federal workers|
|Don't fight it. Bitcoin has a bright future|