FORTUNE -- With six years to think about the question, many Apple (AAPL) analysts have already placed their bets for how many extra iPhones Apple is likely to sell in China now that the deal with China Mobile (CHL) has been announced.
In theory, Apple just increased its addressable market in the world's largest cellphone marketplace by 760 million potential customers. But many of those China Mobile subscribers have already purchased a smartphone. And among the rest, most can neither afford an iPhone or live near enough to one of China Mobile's high-speed base stations to take full advantage of the device's capabilities.
That gives analysts a lot wiggle room -- especially analysts who offered a range of numbers -- as you can see by the attached spreadsheet. The Street's consensus so far: Apple will sell or ship (analysts are vague on that) 18 million incremental units in 2014. We'll add more numbers as they come in.
The forecasts of 48 Apple analysts -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents
FORTUNE - The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in, and the results are mixed -- in more ways than one.
The consensus among the 48 analysts we've heard from -- 27 pros and 21 amateurs -- is that revenues were up (about 3%) in fiscal Q4 and earnings down (about 6%) year over year.
The spread between MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 27, 2013 6:00 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 3.6 million to 5 million. Average: 4.26 million.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales haven't been hurt as much as Windows PC's have by the rise of tablets and smartphones. But Mac shipments peaked in late 2011, and the best Apple can probably hope for now is that they hold up better than everybody else's.
The analysts we polled in advance of Monday's fiscal fourth quarter earning report MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 26, 2013 10:31 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 29 million to 38 million. Average: 33.4 million.
FORTUNE -- This is the number that matters.
The iPhone not only brings in the lion's share of Apple's (AAPL) revenue (51.4% in Q3), but it is rapidly replacing the Mac as the hub around which the rest of Apple's product line revolves.
Apple surprised Wall Street in the June quarter. The Street was expecting less than 5% unit sales MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 25, 2013 10:38 AM ET
The picture of an Apple device being disrupted by Apple itself.
FORTUNE -- It's easy to forget that only six years ago the iPod was Apple's (AAPL) biggest money maker, generating (in Q1 2007) more than 48% of the company's revenue. Now the iPod is almost an afterthought in quarterly reports dominated by the iPhone, iPad and Mac -- second-to-last among Apple's six revenue streams, below iTunes and above Accessories.
The last MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 15, 2013 6:04 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 13 million to 21.7 million. The median is 18 million.
FORTUNE -- Credit where credit is due: The consensus among the professional Apple (AAPL) analysts we polled in January was that the company sold about 22.8 million iPads in the Christmas quarter. The company actually sold 22.86 million -- pretty darn close.
(About the independent analysts, whose estimates averaged 25.5 million and ranged as high as 32 MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 10, 2013 11:29 AM ET
The forecasts range from 32.5 million to 42.5 million. Median estimate: 37 million.
FORTUNE -- iPhone sales were the big surprise this time last year.
Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) had just turned in disappointing activation numbers and the talking heads on CNBC were predicting that Apple (AAPL) would totally miss its revenue and earnings targets -- forgetting, apparently, that most iPhone sales take place overseas.
When Apple reported last April that it MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 7, 2013 5:46 AM ET
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