FORTUNE -- With one day to go before Apple (AAPL) is scheduled to report its earnings for the March quarter – Q2 in Apple's fiscal year -- the expectations of the analysts polled for Fortune's quarterly round-up are not high.
In fact, they're either flat or down across the board according to the 40 analysts we've heard from so far. (See Handicapping Apple's earnings.)
Earnings per share may come in higher -- 2.4% higher to $10.33, by the analysts' consensus -- but mostly because Apple has purchased enough of its own shares to lower the denominator in E/S from nearly a billion shares to less than 890 million.
As for revenue, most of our analysts (31 out to 40) are playing it safe, offering estimates within the range of Apple's guidance -- between $42 billion and $44 billion.
Seven think Apple will beat its revenue guidance -- by half to three-quarters of a billion dollars, according to Merrill Lynch's Scott Craig and the Braeburn Group's Patrick Smellie, respectively. Two analysts -- Credit Suisse's Kulbinder Garcha and the Braeburn Group's Sunil Shah -- think Apple's revenue may actually come in below the low end of Apple's guidance.
Of the four analysts, Merrill's Craig has the best track record. In last year's Earnings Smackdown he took first place with earnings and revenue estimates that were off by less than 1%.
None of Apple's hardware product lines is expected to show much growth this time around, and iPod sales may fall by more than 45% year over year.
In fact, the only Apple line item that is expected to show anything approaching steady growth is iTunes, Software and Services, and its growth is expected to decelerate from nearly 26% last year to less than half that. One factor slowing things down: Apple's decision to give away its productivity suite -- Pages, Numbers and Keynote -- for free.
Below: The individual analyst's Q2 2014 estimates, with the pros in blue, the indies in green (plus Apple's high and low guidance numbers in red). I'll run my quarterly Earnings Smackdown after Wednesday's earnings call and hope to post the quarter's list of the best and worst analysts Thursday morning.
A round-up of the analysts' revenue and earnings forecasts for Apple's June quarter.
FORTUNE -- When it comes to quarterly earnings reports, Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) can be tough acts to follow.
Not this quarter.
Wounded each in their own way by the shift from desktop to mobile computing, both companies reported disappointing earnings Thursday, and their shares fell sharply in after-hours trading -- Google by $37.81 (-4.15%) and Microsoft by $2.23 (-6.29%).
Apple (AAPL) MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 19, 2013 5:50 AM ET
The Street's expectations for fiscal Q3 2013 are down at least 5% since early March
FORTUNE -- Although Apple (AAPL) investors are plenty nervous about next week's March quarter earnings report, the stock's drop to 16-month lows this week may have more to do with jitters about the next report -- the one for the quarter that ends in June.
The Street's consensus as of Friday, according to Thomson Financial's survey of MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 20, 2013 8:26 AM ET
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
The numbers Apple issues tend to be laughably conservative; the company always prefers to under- rather than over-promise. Nonetheless its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 24, 2012 8:15 AM ET
Apple's earnings grew 116% in Q1. So why is the Street is looking for 44% in Q2?
After Apple (AAPL) blew past everybody's expectations on Tuesday, reporting sales up more than 73% and earnings up nearly 116%, analysts up and down Wall Street rushed to revise their spreadsheets and issue new notes to clients. We got our hands on 39 of them -- plus a note from one analyst that his MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 28, 2012 1:28 PM ET
The Street is looking for a falloff in sales. The amateurs are looking for a blowout.
I expect Apple (AAPL) to report two important iPhone statistics next week.
The first, the number of iPhone 4S units sold this coming weekend, the company won't know until after midnight Sunday. The other, the number of iPhones sold last quarter, it already has in hand.
In this post, I'm going to look at the second number, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 12, 2011 2:20 PM ET
With Q4 earnings due next week, the pros and the bloggers are $3.9 billion apart
It has become, for the Street, an embarrassing quarterly tradition.
The Apple (AAPL) independent analysts -- a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs -- file estimates that look, by Wall Street's standards, outrageously optimistic.
But as the day of reckoning approaches -- in this case, Tuesday Oct. 18, when Apple is scheduled to announce its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 11, 2011 2:13 PM ET
A retired Navy analyst threads the needle through widely disparate earnings estimates
Stefan Sidahmed, a former submarine lieutenant commander who has been dabbling in stocks and options since he retired from the Navy, noticed that the Wall Street analysts who track Apple (AAPL) always seem to underestimate the company's quarterly earnings while the bloggers and independent investors -- whose estimates are usually closer to the mark -- tend to overestimate.
To get MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2011 9:04 AM ET
The blogger-analysts say damn straight. The Street isn't far behind
Wall Street was more than a little skeptical in July when Apple (AAPL) CFO Peter Oppenheimer offered his revenue guidance for the quarter that ended two weeks ago: $18 billion -- a 47% increase from Sept. 2009.
"We hadn't girded ourselves for a mammoth revenue forecast," wrote Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner the next day, "and neither, we believe, had the Street."
Like MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 9, 2010 10:50 AM ET
The fourth in a series of previews of Apple's results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010
Two weeks ago we sampled analysts' expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, iPod and Mac sales in the fiscal quarter that ended Dec. 26.
Today we look at the bottom line -- revenue and earnings per share -- for what Wall Street expects to be Apple's biggest quarter ever.
This exercise is a bit more complicated because MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2010 5:09 AM ET
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