Not this quarter.
Wounded each in their own way by the shift from desktop to mobile computing, both companies reported disappointing earnings Thursday, and their shares fell sharply in after-hours trading -- Google by $37.81 (-4.15%) and Microsoft by $2.23 (-6.29%).
Apple (AAPL) is up next, and despite the many wounds it's suffered over the past months, it may be -- paradoxically -- in the best shape of the three.
For one thing, the company repositioned itself years ago, shifting its main source of revenue from desktop to mobile computing -- first with the iPhone (2007), then with the iPad (2010).
For another, expectations for the June quarter are so low (see charts above) that the company has a good chance of beating them.
As we reported last week, this is Apple's quarter of lowered expectations, in which the Street has reconciled itself in advance to zero revenue growth year over year.
The average revenue estimate among the 56 Apple analysts Fortune polled -- 37 Wall Street professionals and 19 amateurs -- is $35.4 billion, with the pros at $34.99 (a bit below last year's $35.02 billion), and the amateurs a bit above at $36.18 billion. Apple's guidance was a range: $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion.
Earnings per share, however, are a different story.
Apple is once again facing what analysts call a "difficult compare" in terms of the company's overall profitability. Last year at this time Apple reported a gross margin of 42.8%, driven largely by high-margin iPhone and iPad sales. This year, more of its revenue is coming from lower-margin iPad minis and discounted older-model iPhones, and in April Apple warned analysts not to expect gross margins outside the 36% to 37% range.
That will knock the stuffing out of Apple's Q3 earnings. Apple didn't offer EPS guidance, but our analysts can do the math.
They came up with an average EPS of $7.48, nearly 20% below the $9.32 Apple reported in the same quarter last year. The average among the pros was $7.31 (which happens also to be the consensus Thomson Financial was reporting Friday morning). The amateurs this quarter are only slightly more bullish at $7.81.
We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its Q3 2013 earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 23.
Below: The individual analyst's revenue and earnings numbers, listed this time in descending order of EPS estimates, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green. Thanks one more time to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
The Street's expectations for fiscal Q3 2013 are down at least 5% since early March
FORTUNE -- Although Apple (AAPL) investors are plenty nervous about next week's March quarter earnings report, the stock's drop to 16-month lows this week may have more to do with jitters about the next report -- the one for the quarter that ends in June.
The Street's consensus as of Friday, according to Thomson Financial's survey of MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 20, 2013 8:26 AM ET
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
The numbers Apple issues tend to be laughably conservative; the company always prefers to under- rather than over-promise. Nonetheless its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 24, 2012 8:15 AM ET
Apple's earnings grew 116% in Q1. So why is the Street is looking for 44% in Q2?
After Apple (AAPL) blew past everybody's expectations on Tuesday, reporting sales up more than 73% and earnings up nearly 116%, analysts up and down Wall Street rushed to revise their spreadsheets and issue new notes to clients. We got our hands on 39 of them -- plus a note from one analyst that his MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 28, 2012 1:28 PM ET
The Street is looking for a falloff in sales. The amateurs are looking for a blowout.
I expect Apple (AAPL) to report two important iPhone statistics next week.
The first, the number of iPhone 4S units sold this coming weekend, the company won't know until after midnight Sunday. The other, the number of iPhones sold last quarter, it already has in hand.
In this post, I'm going to look at the second number, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 12, 2011 2:20 PM ET
With Q4 earnings due next week, the pros and the bloggers are $3.9 billion apart
It has become, for the Street, an embarrassing quarterly tradition.
The Apple (AAPL) independent analysts -- a growing community of bloggers, private investors and assorted amateurs -- file estimates that look, by Wall Street's standards, outrageously optimistic.
But as the day of reckoning approaches -- in this case, Tuesday Oct. 18, when Apple is scheduled to announce its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 11, 2011 2:13 PM ET
A retired Navy analyst threads the needle through widely disparate earnings estimates
Stefan Sidahmed, a former submarine lieutenant commander who has been dabbling in stocks and options since he retired from the Navy, noticed that the Wall Street analysts who track Apple (AAPL) always seem to underestimate the company's quarterly earnings while the bloggers and independent investors -- whose estimates are usually closer to the mark -- tend to overestimate.
To get MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2011 9:04 AM ET
The blogger-analysts say damn straight. The Street isn't far behind
Wall Street was more than a little skeptical in July when Apple (AAPL) CFO Peter Oppenheimer offered his revenue guidance for the quarter that ended two weeks ago: $18 billion -- a 47% increase from Sept. 2009.
"We hadn't girded ourselves for a mammoth revenue forecast," wrote Oppenheimer's Yair Reiner the next day, "and neither, we believe, had the Street."
Like MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 9, 2010 10:50 AM ET
The fourth in a series of previews of Apple's results for the first fiscal quarter of 2010
Two weeks ago we sampled analysts' expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, iPod and Mac sales in the fiscal quarter that ended Dec. 26.
Today we look at the bottom line -- revenue and earnings per share -- for what Wall Street expects to be Apple's biggest quarter ever.
This exercise is a bit more complicated because MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 18, 2010 5:09 AM ET
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