Earnings Smackdown

Apple's blow-out quarter: Once again, the Street blew it

Humiliated by a bunch of bloggers, amateur analysts and assorted day traders

With revenues that grew 73% and earnings that more than doubled, Apple (AAPL) proved Tuesday that the fourth quarter results that so disappointed Wall Street last fall were a fluke. The company that Steve Jobs built is still that rare beast in American business: A $400 billion giant that acts -- and grows -- like a start-up.

Tuesday's results also MORE

Our Apple whisper numbers

Averaging the Q1 2012 estimates of the six analysts with the best track records

Whisper numbers, according to Wikipedia, emerge from widening cracks in the spreadsheets maintained by Wall Street analysts. Quoting an article by Daniel Svensson, the entry explains:

"When the estimate is first calculated by sell-side analysts, the number is submitted to companies such as First Call to be averaged with other analysts' estimates for the consensus earnings estimate. As MORE

Can Apple still deliver an earnings surprise?

The 18% gap between the Street's estimates and the independents' suggests that it can

Last fall, a Wall Street analyst who shall remain nameless suggested in a note to clients that the days of the big Apple (AAPL) earnings surprises may be over.

He was referring to the string of quarterly reports in which the company beat the Street's estimates by measures so wide they were (or should have been) an embarrassment MORE

iPod unit sales estimates for Q1 range from 9 to 18 million

The consensus among 44 Wall Street and independent analysts is just under 14 million

If you ignore the fact that iPhones -- and for that matter, iPads -- are a kind of iPod, then sales of what was once Apple's (AAPL) biggest moneymaker have been drifting south since Christmas 2008, when they peaked at 22.7 million for the quarter (Apple's fiscal Q1 2009).

Among the 44 analysts we've heard from so far, the MORE

The first 5-million Mac quarter?

33 of 46 analysts expect Apple to meet or beat that mark in its quarterly report next week

One of the big computer news stories last quarter was the continued strength of Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales even as the rest of the PC industry was shrinking. (See Mac sales zigged as Windows PC sales sagged in Q4.)

How well did the Mac do? We put the question to our two groups of analysts MORE

By how many billions is Wall Street low-balling Apple?

With Q1 earnings due next week, the Street and the bloggers are now $4.5 billion apart

Perhaps professional analysts are just more comfortable underestimating Apple (AAPL). Perhaps they're still smarting from last quarter, when their numbers (for once) came in too high. Perhaps they're suspicious of reports that suggest that Mac and iPhone and iPad sales have never been so strong.

For whatever reason, Wall Street's estimates for what everybody seems to agree MORE

iPad sales estimates for Q1 range from 11.7 to 19.5 million

The Street's consensus: 13.5 million. The indies are 10% more bullish

Everybody we've heard from expects Apple (AAPL) to report record iPad sales for the quarter that ended Dec. 31.

And why not? Tablets were a popular gift item this past holiday season. The iPad 2 didn't face much competition -- except perhaps from Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire. And although there were rumors of an iPad 3 coming in March or April, MORE

How many iPhones did Apple sell last quarter?

Pros and amateurs both expect a blow-out. They're just haggling over the percentage

The most important metric  for Apple (AAPL) in the quarter that ended eight days ago -- likely to account for more than half of the company's revenue for fiscal Q1 2012 -- is the number of iPhones it sold from Sep. 25 to Dec. 31.

We've polled nearly 40 Apple analysts -- professionals and independents -- and for once they MORE

Apple to announce first quarter 2012 earnings on Jan. 24

Mark your calendars for what's expected to be a monster quarter

Apple (AAPL) investor relations has scheduled a conference call with analysts on Tuesday, Jan. 24 at 5 p.m. ET (2 p.m. PT) to discuss its first fiscal quarter results.

Given last summer's pent-up demand for the new iPhone that was finally released in October, this should be a big one.

The Street's consensus, as reported Tuesday by Thomson Reuters, is for earnings MORE

Bloggers vs. Pros on Apple's Q1 2012: A $5 billion gap

If you ask about sales in the quarter that just ended, you get two very different answers

How did Apple (AAPL) do in the quarter that ended Saturday?

That depends whom you ask.

The consensus among nearly four dozen professional analysts, according to Thomson Reuters, is that Apple will report record earnings of $9.83 on record sales of $38.17 billion, up 52.8% and 42.7%, respectively, from the same quarter last year.

No way, say MORE