The first test of Apple's new guidance philosophy: Belief vs. reasonable confidence.
FORTUNE -- In January, when Apple (AAPL) reported its earnings for the December quarter -- its first fiscal quarter of 2013 -- the company made explicit a change most investors seem to have missed.
For years Apple had been low-balling Wall Street, offering revenue and earnings forecasts every three months so "conservative" they became a running joke. Every quarter, everybody MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 21, 2013 7:36 AM ET
The focus next Tuesday will be on how efficiently Apple turned revenues into earnings.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) shares have been getting slammed as Wall Street frets about its March quarter earnings report, due out next Tuesday.
Whether the stock bounces from the 16-month low it hit Wednesday or sinks even lower may depend less on iPhone or iPad sales than on its guidance for the June quarter (more on that later) MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 18, 2013 8:23 AM ET
The picture of an Apple device being disrupted by Apple itself.
FORTUNE -- It's easy to forget that only six years ago the iPod was Apple's (AAPL) biggest money maker, generating (in Q1 2007) more than 48% of the company's revenue. Now the iPod is almost an afterthought in quarterly reports dominated by the iPhone, iPad and Mac -- second-to-last among Apple's six revenue streams, below iTunes and above Accessories.
The last MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 15, 2013 6:04 AM ET
Global PC sales may be in free fall, but most analysts expect the Mac's to be up a bit
FORTUNE -- For a company like Apple (AAPL) that is supposed to be a growth stock, the flattening bar graph at right might seem like a disappointment -- unless you consider the alternative, represented by the chart at left.
According to IDC's grim report Thursday, PC sales were down worldwide by 14% year MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 13, 2013 12:21 PM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 13 million to 21.7 million. The median is 18 million.
FORTUNE -- Credit where credit is due: The consensus among the professional Apple (AAPL) analysts we polled in January was that the company sold about 22.8 million iPads in the Christmas quarter. The company actually sold 22.86 million -- pretty darn close.
(About the independent analysts, whose estimates averaged 25.5 million and ranged as high as 32 MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 10, 2013 11:29 AM ET
The forecasts range from 32.5 million to 42.5 million. Median estimate: 37 million.
FORTUNE -- iPhone sales were the big surprise this time last year.
Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) had just turned in disappointing activation numbers and the talking heads on CNBC were predicting that Apple (AAPL) would totally miss its revenue and earnings targets -- forgetting, apparently, that most iPhone sales take place overseas.
When Apple reported last April that it MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 7, 2013 5:46 AM ET
The conference call with analysts begins at 5 p.m. Eastern (2 p.m. Pacific).
FORTUNE -- There should, in theory, be fewer surprises than usual three weeks from now when Apple (AAPL) releases the results of its second fiscal quarter of 2013.
In January the company changed the way it gives analysts guidance, replacing the "conservative" estimates of the past indicating what it had reasonable confidence of achieving with a range that reflects its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 2, 2013 6:41 AM ET
Wall Street makes a comeback
FORTUNE -- As long-time readers of this blog know, we've been running for more than four years a friendly competition we call the Apple Earnings Smackdown.
Here's how it works: Each quarter, in advance of Apple's (AAPL) earnings report, we gather estimates from every analyst we can reach -- both Wall Street professionals and a collection of (mostly amateur) independents.
What made the exercise particularly interesting -- at MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 17, 2013 11:21 AM ET
Ranking the best and worst Apple analysts for fiscal Q1 2013
FORTUNE (Koh Ngai, Thailand) -- As evidenced by Apple's (AAPL) sickening $55.5 (10.8%) drop in after-hour trading Wednesday, the analysts who cover the company -- both on and off Wall Street -- aren't doing it any favors.
The company didn't have a bad quarter. In fact, it posted its best quarter ever with earnings per share of $13.81 on sales of MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 23, 2013 8:16 PM ET
If Apple is about to report its best ever quarter, why does the stock keep falling?
FORTUNE (Hanoi) -- It's hard to reconcile the steep downward slope of the small chart above with the upward thrust of the two larger charts at right.
The first shows Apple's (AAPL) share price falling 27% since the close of the company's last fiscal quarter.
The second two charts show the consensus of the 67 analysts we MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 15, 2013 4:05 PM ET
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