If Apple is about to report its best ever quarter, why does the stock keep falling?
FORTUNE (Hanoi) -- It's hard to reconcile the steep downward slope of the small chart above with the upward thrust of the two larger charts at right.
The first shows Apple's (AAPL) share price falling 27% since the close of the company's last fiscal quarter.
The second two charts show the consensus of the 67 analysts we MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 15, 2013 4:05 PM ET
The analysts' forecasts range from 4.45 million to 6.5 million. Median estimate: 5.2 million
FORTUNE (Vientiane, Laos) -- At first glance, the chart at right looks pretty dismal. It suggests that Wall Street expects Christmas quarter sales of the Mac to grow less year over year than any year in memory, and that our sample of independent analysts -- generally more bullish than the professionals -- expect year over year unit MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 12, 2013 6:27 PM ET
The analysts' forecasts range from 17 million to 32 million. Median estimate: 24 million
FORTUNE (Vang Vieng, Laos) -- Sales of Apple's (AAPL) iPad grew from zero to 7.3 million units in 2010 and doubled in 2011 to 15.4 million.
According to our most bullish independent analysts, they doubled again in calendar 2012.
According to the most bearish professional -- Argus Research's Jim Kelleher -- they grew (once you factor out 2011's extra MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 11, 2013 6:39 PM ET
The analysts' forecasts range from 43 million to 63 million. Median estimate: 49.5 million
FORTUNE (Luang Prabang, Laos) -- A year ago, Apple (AAPL) blew past all expectations by reporting sales of 37 million iPhones in the Christmas quarter, 128% more than the year before and a cool 10 million units better than the median analyst's estimate.
That's what analysts call a tough compare.
Nobody expects a repeat of that kind of surprise MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 9, 2013 6:30 PM ET
Also northern Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia
FORTUNE -- Starting New Years Eve, I'm going to be on a four-week walkabout in parts of the world where Internet access is often sketchy. So except for gathering and sorting analysts estimates, this blogger will be on vacation.
By the time Apple (AAPL) releases the results of its first fiscal quarter of 2013 -- the Christmas quarter that ended Saturday -- I expect to be MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 31, 2012 5:40 AM ET
For the third time in five quarters, the professional analysts outgunned the amateurs
FORTUNE -- It was a great story while it lasted.
For nearly three years the professional sell-side analysts who cover Apple (AAPL) for the big banks and brokerage houses got clobbered every quarter by a motley group of amateurs -- bloggers, day traders and individual investors who bet on Apple to beat the Street's consensus and hadn't been wrong MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 26, 2012 9:06 AM ET
Lowered expectations after Tim Cook's Tuesday bombshell
FORTUNE -- On Monday, Wall Street's consensus for Apple's (AAPL) fourth quarter report -- scheduled to be released today after the markets close -- was for earnings of $8.85 on sales of $36.32 billion.
By Thursday, according to Thomson Financial, those numbers had dropped to $8.75 and $35.8 billion. And among some of the analysts who revised their estimates this week, expectations were even lower.
What MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 25, 2012 7:57 AM ET
The forecasts range from 14.8 million to 23 million. The median estimate was 18 million.
UPDATE: Tim Cook's announcement at the iPad mini event that Apple sold 100 million iPads as of two weeks ago -- only 16 million more than Q3's total -- has thrown most analysts for a loop. They've been scrambling ever since to adjust their models.
FORTUNE -- Talk about an expectations gap! You could drive a truckload MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 18, 2012 12:50 PM ET
As Apple's share price passes $665, are some analysts having second thoughts?
FORTUNE -- After Apple (AAPL)'s third fiscal quarter earnings came in below Wall Street's expectations, several analysts -- including Goldman Sach's Bill Shope, ISI's Brian Marshall and BMO's Keith Bachman -- lowered their 12-month price targets (to $790, $710 and $680, respectively).
At least their targets are still higher than Apple's current price. After setting new record highs two sessions MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 22, 2012 7:30 AM ET
The professional in Q3 made the independents look like what most of them are: Amateurs
FORTUNE -- "Don't play darts with Katy Huberty," one of our readers commented after Apple (AAPL) reported earnings Tuesday that fell short of every other analyst's expectations. "She's on a hot streak."
If ever there was a quarter in which it paid an Apple analyst to be cautious, this was it. Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, whose low-ball MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 25, 2012 7:30 AM ET
|Instagram launches direct messaging|
|Military retirees: You betrayed us, Congress|
|I work 4 jobs and I'm still struggling|
|Will the market actually cheer Fed tapering?|
|500-page mortgage applications have become the new normal|