FORTUNE -- In the Apple (AAPL) Earnings Smackdowns we've been running every quarter for the past five years, the amateurs who follow the company tend to do better than Wall Street's professionals in quarters where Apple beats expectations.
And on Monday, with Apple reporting revenues, earnings and unit sales that were all better than the Street's consensus, the indies did it again.
Compared to some of their past disasters, the pros didn't do badly this time. But when ranked by the accuracy of their top- and bottom-line estimates, they gave nine of the top 10 spots to the amateurs.
Shout outs to:
And a raspberry to
CORRECTIONS: An earlier version of this story had a raspberry for Cantor Fitzgerald's Brian White based on a note he filed in September. I missed his Monday morning estimates, which were far more accurate. Janney Capital's Bill Choi most recent numbers also came to me late. The spreadsheets have been corrected and updated. My apologies to Mr. White and Mr. Choi.
Below the fold: Our annotated master spreadsheet, with the best estimates highlighted in bright green, the second and third best in light green, the worst in red and the second and third worst in pink.
Thanks one last time to Posts at Eventide's Robert Paul Leitao for pulling together the Braeburn Group numbers.
Wall Street is looking for proof that Apple knows what it's doing.
FORTUNE -- Analysts are not looking for any big surprises this afternoon when Apple (AAPL) reports its earnings for the last fiscal quarter of 2013.
Sales are expected to be up slightly from last year and earnings down once again -- the first time in a decade income has fallen three quarters in a row. (See Final estimates for Apple's Q4 2013.)
Guidance MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 28, 2013 8:42 AM ET
On Monday, Apple will release its fiscal Q4 results. Some analysts have already moved on.
FORTUNE -- Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky, whose rise and spectacular fall as an Apple (AAPL) hedge fund manager is the stuff of investor legend, no longer cares what the company says on Monday about last quarter's sales and earnings.
And that's quite a change.
It was Zaky who first started pitting amateur Apple analysts against Wall Street's professionals MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 27, 2013 10:37 AM ET
The forecasts of 48 Apple analysts -- 27 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents
FORTUNE - The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in, and the results are mixed -- in more ways than one.
The consensus among the 48 analysts we've heard from -- 27 pros and 21 amateurs -- is that revenues were up (about 3%) in fiscal Q4 and earnings down (about 6%) year over year.
The spread between MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 27, 2013 6:00 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 3.6 million to 5 million. Average: 4.26 million.
FORTUNE -- Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales haven't been hurt as much as Windows PC's have by the rise of tablets and smartphones. But Mac shipments peaked in late 2011, and the best Apple can probably hope for now is that they hold up better than everybody else's.
The analysts we polled in advance of Monday's fiscal fourth quarter earning report MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 26, 2013 10:31 AM ET
The analysts' estimates range from 29 million to 38 million. Average: 33.4 million.
FORTUNE -- This is the number that matters.
The iPhone not only brings in the lion's share of Apple's (AAPL) revenue (51.4% in Q3), but it is rapidly replacing the Mac as the hub around which the rest of Apple's product line revolves.
Apple surprised Wall Street in the June quarter. The Street was expecting less than 5% unit sales MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 25, 2013 10:38 AM ET
Forget, for a few minutes, the new iPads Apple is set to unveil on Tuesday.
FORTUNE -- It's strange to be talking about last year's iPads a couple days before Apple (AAPL) shows off this year's models.
But how the old iPads held up a year after their release -- and in the face of growing competition -- will tell investors a lot about the lasting power of the new ones.
Last year's iPads MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 20, 2013 2:14 PM ET
There were some inspired estimates, but nobody hit every nail on the head.
FORTUNE -- It's easy to make fun of Apple (AAPL) analysts -- and fun, too -- but in terms of their ability to accurately forecast the company's quarterly results, they've come a long way.
Two years ago, when Apple announced blow-out results that surprised nearly everybody, Wall Street's analysts missed the company's revenue and earnings by a combined average MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 24, 2013 8:26 AM ET
Its quarterly report is a reality check on three months of fear, uncertainty and doubt.
FORTUNE -- Today at about 4:30 p.m. ET, Apple (AAPL) will report its earnings for the June quarter, three months about which the best thing that can be said, as far as Wall Street and much of the business press are concerned, is that things weren't quite as bad as they seemed.
According to both Thomson Finance MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 23, 2013 8:33 AM ET
The forecasts of 59 Apple analysts -- 38 Wall Street professionals and 21 independents
FORTUNE -- The results of Fortune's quarterly survey of Apple (AAPL) analysts are in. The professionals are, as usual, more cautious than the amateurs -- but not consistently so (see iPods, Macs and iTunes).
Nobody, however, is expecting a blow-out quarter. Earnings estimates are down across the board -- anywhere from -7% year over year (according to independent Patrick Smellie MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 22, 2013 6:31 AM ET
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