Looking for fiscal Q2 2011 earnings between $5.89 and $6.32 a share
Asymco's Horace Dediu, whose track record on Apple (AAPL) over the past three quarters is second to none, and Daniel ("Deagol") Tello, one of the industry's most closely watched blogger-analysts, have posted their Apple estimates for the topsy-turvy quarter than ends this Saturday, March 26.
Dediu, who likes to make his predictions early, announced on Jan. 22 that he's looking for fiscal Q2 earnings of $5.89 a share on revenue of $24.5 billion.
Tello, who prefers to wait until the end of the quarter, posted his numbers Monday morning. He's calling for earnings $6.32 on sales of $25.27 billion.
Both are offering estimates considerably higher than The Street's consensus ($5.29 on $23.04 billion) and, if history is any guide, considerably more dependable.
Below: Their numbers.
Revenue in billions; units in millions.
Also on Fortune.com:
[Follow Philip Elmer-DeWitt on Twitter @philiped]
With Apple's earnings due next week, the two groups of analysts are miles apart
Click to enlarge. Source: Apple 2.0 poll
The amateur analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) tend to be considerably more bullish than the professionals who do it for banks and brokerage houses. After all, unlike the sell-side analysts who are telling investors to buy the stock, they don't have clients who will be angry and disappointed if the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 15, 2011 10:59 AM ET
He's a Romanian blogger with a Harvard MBA who lives in Finland. Go figure.
Horace Dediu. Photo: Rami Salle
What if you took all the estimates by all the analysts who write about Apple (AAPL) -- and there are dozens -- and ranked them by how closely their predictions matched the company's quarterly earnings reports. Would you be interested in who came in first?
Daniel Tello, a Venezuelan amateur with a strong MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 22, 2010 7:48 AM ET
Within two years, it should be Apple's second largest source of revenue, after the iPhone
Click to enlarge. Source: Deagol's AAPL model
The log chart above, produced by Daniel ("Deagol") Tello, shows the revenue stream from the iPad overtaking the Mac's -- much as the iPhone did three years earlier and the iPod did a few years before that.
In Tello's model -- available here -- the iPhone remains Apple's (AAPL) No. MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 13, 2010 11:53 AM ET
The bloggers beat the pros once again this quarter, but not quite as handily as before
Bloggers: Green. Pros: Pink. Click to enlarge.
The professional analysts who track Apple (AAPL) for banks and brokerage houses may have been surprised by the $15.7 billion in revenue the company reported Tuesday -- an all-time record for Apple in what is traditionally one of its weakest quarters.
But the blogger-analysts we polled in advance of MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 21, 2010 5:53 AM ET
$267 a share, according to Trefis.com's model. But feel free to build your own.
Source: Trefis.com
The analysts at Trefis figure that the iPhone accounts for 51.5% and the iPad only 4.3% of Apple's (AAPL) fair market value, which they estimate at about $267 a share -- nearly $20 above Friday's closing price.
How do we know? Because their model of the company (right) -- fully interactive and satisfyingly drillable -- is MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 17, 2010 4:32 PM ET
The rate slows to 5,000 per day as Apple offers school discounts and begins accepting apps
Photo: Apple Inc.
It's been a busy week for the iPad.
It started off with a bang, as Apple (AAPL) racked up pre-orders at the rate of more than 25,000 units per hour early Friday March 12, according to the team tracking order numbers at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board.
By Sunday, the initial frenzy had cooled. MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 20, 2010 3:33 PM ET
On track to reach 200,000 units one week after Apple began taking orders online
Click to enlarge. Source: Daniel Tello
After an initial flood of pent-up demand and some ups and downs over the first weekend, pre-orders for the iPad tablet computer are now averaging 10,000 per day, according to Daniel Tello, a Venezuelan blogger-analyst who writes about Apple (AAPL) using the pseudonym Deagol.
Tello has been tracking order numbers submitted by MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 18, 2010 6:44 AM ET
A rough three-day estimate, based on an analysis of order numbers: 152,000 units
Source: Daniel Tello
After the initial burst of excitement on Friday that saw iPad pre-orders coming in at the rate of 25,000 per hour, there was a dramatic fall-off over the weekend.
According to Daniel Tello, the Venezuelan blogger-analyst who has been tracking order numbers submitted by volunteers at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board, orders on Saturday and Sunday MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 15, 2010 5:17 AM ET
A snapshot of who's buying what based on a sample of first-day pre-orders
Click to enlarge. Source: AAPL Sanity
The team at Investor Village's AAPL Sanity board have completed their initial analysis of pre-orders for the iPad tablet computer.
Apple (AAPL) began taking orders on Friday for delivery starting April 3.
Based on a sampling of 99 orders (for 110 iPads) over 19.5 hours, and not counting units that were reserved but not MORE
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| Bank of America Corp... | 7.95 | -0.16 | -1.97% |
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