FORTUNE -- Daring Fireball's John Gruber delivered one of his increasingly rare long-form essays Wednesday, and it's a good one.
It's structured around the three leading arguments being made these days in the media and on the Street for why Apple (AAPL) is doomed. He summarizes them as follows:
Gruber wrestles the three bears one by one, drawing on recent essays by Ben Thompson (What Clayton Christensen Got Wrong), Horace Dediu ("Apple has always been priced as a company that is in a perpetual state of free-fall"), Jean-Louis Gassée (Apple Market Share: Facts and Psychology) and Ben Bajarin (It's Tough Competing With the iPhone).
The dean of Apple bloggers lands, not surprisingly, deep in Apple's corner. Drawing on the oft-cited Mac-vs.-Windows analogy, he concludes:
The irony here is that iOS vs. Android (or, if you prefer, iPhone and iPad vs. commodity smartphones and tablets) is in fact a replay Mac vs. Windows — but not in the way that most who make the comparison would have you believe. Judging by its actions, Apple is keenly aware of the lessons to be learned from 20 years ago. To wit, this has nothing to do with focusing on raw market share, and everything to do with keeping the pedal to the metal on design and quality. If Apple maintains a lead over its rivals in those regards, the Mac suggests that Apple can occupy a dominant, stable, long-term position as the profit leader in the mobile market as well — a market that is already bigger than the PC market ever was, and unlike the PC market, is still growing.
For anyone concerned that Apple might in fact be doomed, it's a must read.
The equivalent, in podcasting news, of Conan O'Brien leaving NBC for TBS
FORTUNE -- On Friday, Daring Fireball's John Gruber, one of the most influential Apple (AAPL) commentators on the Internet, began the latest episode of his Talk Show podcast by launching without preamble into a riff about Andy Pettitte's return to baseball.
No surprise there. Gruber's podcast style is as idiosyncratic as his widely-read blog, and he'll use any excuse to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - May 19, 2012 9:26 AM ET
A lesson in access journalism in the wake of the New York Times' Foxconn series
"An Apple spokesman said no executives were available to comment."
That sentence, appearing 12 paragraphs into a 14-graph story by Brian X. Chen in Thursday's New York Times, speaks volumes about how Apple (AAPL) deals with press coverage it doesn't like.
For more than a week, the company had been seeding selected media outlets with early access to its next MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Feb 17, 2012 7:18 AM ET
One of the most fascinating panels on the Macworld stage during last week's Macworld | iWorld expo in San Francisco was a conversion about "The State of Apple" among Macworld editor Jason Snell, Daring Fireball's John Gruber and Chicago Sun Times columnist Andy Ihnatko.
We've excerpted the part that interested us most: 5:40 about what happens to Apple (AAPL) without Steve Jobs at the helm.
Our favorite bit: Ihnatko on why more companies don't emulate Apple.
"When you try to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 30, 2012 3:13 PM ET
A cellphone eavesdropping scandal casts a shadow on Apple's competitors
Have you heard that every text message, every e-mail, every phone number, every keystroke made on a Google (GOOG) Android phone may be secretly recorded, logged and sent to your cellular provider by a tracking service called Carrier IQ?
No? That's a surprise, because it's a scandal that's been brewing for several weeks -- ever since security researcher Trevor Eckhart discovered Carrier MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 30, 2011 5:42 PM ET
Between them, the "Big Three" sites responsible for most rumors got only 7 right
If you've ever wondered how much of what you read in the tech blogs is true, Shawn King's Stupid Apple Rumors site has done you -- and the entire profession -- a favor.
Starting on July 24 and for the next two and a half months, the site kept track of every story about Apple's (AAPL) new iPhone MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 11, 2011 4:11 PM ET
Gruber, Mossberg, Om and more. Walking the media line at the iPhone 4S event
This 53-second YouTube video is what you might call media inside baseball.
It was shot outside Apple's (AAPL) Town Hall auditorium while the invited press cooled their heels in advance of Tuesday's iPhone 4S event.
That's the Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg with the white Van Dyke at the 28-second mark. Daring Fireball's John Gruber is the tall guy in dark MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 4, 2011 10:28 PM ET
Apple watchers are reading a lot into the invitation to next week's special event
If one assumes -- as many were on Tuesday -- that Apple (AAPL) puts as much thought into the iconography of its invitations as it does into the icons on its computer screens, there are several conclusions one could draw from the "Let's talk iPhone" e-mail sent to selected member of the media.
The meaning of first three MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 27, 2011 2:58 PM ET
Shots were fired in both directions as partisans previewed Microsoft's next tablet OS
A war of words -- blogged, tweeted and syndicated -- broke out at Microsoft's (MSFT) annual developers conference Tuesday when the company distributed Samsung tablets loaded with beta copies of Windows 8, its answer to Apple's (AAPL) OS X and iOS, rolled into one.
Paul Thurrott, the news editor of Windows IT Pro and host of the Windows Weekly podcast, MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 14, 2011 8:27 AM ET
The Rupert Murdoch-owned paper ran a couple of very odd stories this week
There's not much doubt, Rupert Murdoch declared on his Fox News cable network last year, that Steve Jobs is the best chief executive in the U.S.
"He's got such incredible focus," he told an interviewer. "He's got such power inspiring the people around him who work for him. And, you know, it's -- it's a highly, highly disciplined company... MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jul 23, 2011 8:50 AM ET
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