CDMA
Ticonderoga on the new iPhone: Prepare for media blitz, long lines, unprecedented demand
October 3, 2011: 9:08 AM ETAn analyst looks at Apple as an investment opportunity today and likes what he sees
"We would rather own Apple than any other tech company in the current environment."
So writes Ticonderoga's Brian White in a note to clients issued Monday, the day before Apple's (AAPL) Oct. 4 iPhone event.
White has taken a look at the performance of Apple shares over the past two weeks and come to the same conclusion Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky did last Friday: Rather than buying on the rumor and selling on the news, as they did the last four iPhone launches, investors seem poised to do the opposite. (See Apple trading in advance of the iPhone 5 breaks the mold.)
Among White's reasons for owning Apple now:
- The stock has fallen to the point where it is trading at 9.4 times Ticonderoga's calendar 2012 pro forma EPS estimate
- Given the pent-up demand from the delayed launch, he believes the company will shatter the record 1.7 million iPhone 4's sold in the first three days last year
- The iPhone is now sold to a record number of carriers (228 carriers at end of June vs. 154 a year earlier) and can now operate on CDMA networks as well as GSM
- Following the precedent set by the iPad 2, Apple is likely to roll the phone out to its international carriers more aggressively than previous launches
- The booming China market is likely to play a bigger role than ever before
White's price target of $666 a share is the highest on Wall Street. It is based, he says, "on nearly 20x our interest expense/income adjusted CY11 pro forma EPS estimate plus net cash per share of $81.21. Essentially, this equates to a straight P/E of 22.3x our CY11 EPS estimate and is below the 26x multiple over the last six years."
Got that?
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Where the CDMA iPhone goes next
After the U.S (with Verizon) and South Korea, Apple is likely to target China, India and Japan
The iPhone built around the CDMA protocol that Apple (AAPL) launched in February went first to Verizon (VZ).
That made sense, since Verizon Wireless, with 94 million customers, represents the world largest market for CDMA mobile phones.
But as J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz points out in a note to clients issued Tuesday, Verizon's is not the MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 13, 2011 9:48 AM ETPosted in: Apple, CDMA, China, Code division multiple access, India, iPhone, J.P. Morgan, Mark Moskowitz, Mobile, South Korea, Verizon Communications -
The great iPhone migration
Analysts predict that at least 2 million AT&T subscribers over the next year will switch carriers now that the Verizon iPhone is available. Here's how the companies transfer a customer's phone number from one device to another.
1. An AT&T (T) customer walks into a Verizon Wireless store to switch to Verizon's iPhone -- but wants to keep his current phone number. He provides the number and personal identification.
2. Verizon (VZ) MORE
Jessica Shambora, Writer-Reporter - Feb 22, 2011 5:00 AM ET -
What is a 'Verizon-ready' iPhone?
Once again, the Wall Street Journal starts the rumor mill spinning
[UPDATE: The Journal's story changed in important ways overnight. See WSJ Verizon iPhone rumor -- Round 2.]
In a brief report posted Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal revisited a rumor its reporters have been pursuing -- and perpetuating -- for more than six months.
In March, Yukari Iwatani Kane and Ting-I Tsai sent Apple shares soaring with a report that hinted but MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Oct 6, 2010 3:05 PM ET -
Verizon iPhone: A plausible timeline
If you buy the rumors that Apple is building a phone for Verizon, January 2011 makes sense
Here's how Daring Fireball's John Gruber sees events unfolding:
The device code named N92 (the iPhone 4 was N90), now in being tested in-house by Apple (AAPL) engineers according to Gruber's sources, reaches device verification test (DVT) level this fall, which is when the secret prototypes go out for field testing. (See Gizmodo here.)
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 13, 2010 3:29 PM ET
Apple unveils MORE
