FORTUNE -- The chart at right represents the worst case scenario for Apple's (AAPL) share of the global smartphone market, as forecast Monday by Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi.
Using Apple's own numbers for fiscal Q2, Sacconaghi calculates that iPhone sales grew 7% year over year in a sell-in basis (12% in a sell-through basis) while the overall smartphone market grew by about 36%. The net result is that Apple's share of the global smartphone market fell from 23% last year to 17% share this year -- the largest year-over-year decline in the iPhone's history, according to Sacconaghi.
The situation won't get any better by June, he figures. Based on Apple's fiscal Q3 revenue guidance, he estimates Apple will sell about 25 million iPhones in the current quarter (down 4% year over year). If the overall market grows 30%, Apple's share will fall to 12.3%. If it grows 36%, Apple's share falls to 11.7%.
"Perhaps most startlingly," he writes, "if Apple does not introduce a new iPhone or lower-priced phone in CQ3 [Apple's fiscal Q4], it is quite possible that iPhone's smartphone market share could drop into the single digits."
Given this dire prospect, how can Sacconaghi maintain a $600 price target for Apple and an Outperform rating? He offers several "perspectives." Quoting from his note to clients:
Bernstein's Apple analyst says investors are expecting the equivalent of a 4.5% yield.
FORTUNE -- According to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple's (AAPL) top brass has been holding "widespread discussions" with key investors to get input on its plans to return more of its $137.1 billion cash hoard to shareholders.
Sacconaghi has been debriefing those investors and now thinks he has a pretty good idea of how Apple's cash management plans have MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 15, 2013 11:20 AM ET
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
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And re-sold it to consumers for billions more than it paid, according to Toni Sacconaghi
The only difference between a 16 GB iPhone 4S and the 32 GB model is 16 GB of NAND flash memory, for which Apple (AAPL) charges customers $100.
But according to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple buys that memory for a heavily discounted price of $0.67 per gigabyte, or a total $10.72.
That's a pretty sweet mark-up. And an MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 6, 2012 11:39 AM ET
Bernstein's top Apple analyst joins the chorus questioning the stock's dismal valuation
Last week, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty noted that Apple's (AAPL) current stock price suggests that the market is expecting the company's earnings to grow minus 2% in perpetuity. (See here.)
In the first of a two-part series, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi on Monday drilled a little deeper into that -2% growth rate and found a series of what he calls "fantastically MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 13, 2011 7:58 AM ET
CapEx spending is up 9 fold in 3 years, the bulk on equipment for a few key suppliers
When Apple (AAPL) reports an uptick in its cash and marketable securities holdings -- up $5.4 billion to $81.6 billion last quarter -- Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi can usually be counted on to call for the company to return some of that cash to the shareholders (70% of whom happen to be institutions like MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 15, 2011 8:12 AM ET
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Among the people who follow Apple (AAPL) closely, the massive server farm the company is constructing in Maiden, N.C., has achieved near mythic status. It has become the answer to every unanswered question about Apple's troubled online strategy, from what Steve Jobs was thinking when he green-lighted Ping to how MacBook Air users are supposed MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 23, 2011 6:13 AM ET
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"Undercutting Apple on pricing has been the de facto strategy for competitors. Surprisingly then, no competitor has yet matched Apple on tablet pricing, which begs the question of why."
So begins a note to clients issued Wednesday morning by Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, who estimates that Apple (AAPL) may have a 750 to 975 basis point (7.5% to 9.75%) cost MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 2, 2011 11:22 AM ET
An analyst asks whether it can keep outperforming the market without paying a dividend
Toni Sacconaghi just won't give up.
For more than two years, Bernstein Research's top Apple (AAPL) analyst been after Steve Jobs to spend some of the company's growing cash hoard ($51 billion as of September), preferably on a stock buyback or cash dividend.
"Shareholder frustration," he wrote in an open letter to the board of directors in August, "is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 8, 2010 11:54 AM ET
He will ignore the latest call for Apple to share its huge cash hoard as he ignores them all
Most of the arguments for and against the open letter to Apple's (AAPL) board of directors issued Thursday by Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi have already been made. (See here and here.)
Sacconaghi's polemics against Apple's policy of holding on to its profits -- rather than distributing them to its shareholders -- tend to MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Aug 13, 2010 8:48 AM ET
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