FORTUNE -- You would think that bad news for Samsung's smartphones would be good news for Apple (AAPL). But that's not how Wall Street sees it, according to Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi.
In an CNBC interview Monday, Sacconaghi listed among the reasons for Apple recent weakness (down 6.8% in a week) the Street's concerns about "Samsung's high end product perhaps not fulfilling expectations about the high end of the smartphone market."
He's referring to the Samsung Galaxy S4, introduced with great fanfare -- and a Broadway opening -- in March, praised in the press for shipping 10 million units in less than a month, and now making headlines for sales that fell short of expectations.
According to Wedge Partner's Brian Blair, those 10 million units shipped were "much lower" than Samsung's own target of 14 to 15 million. Furthermore, Blair estimates that Samsung has cut third quarter production for its flagship smartphone from 40 million units to 30 million and reduced its original first-year target from 100 million to 85 to 90 million.
So what does that have to do with Apple?
According to Sacconaghi, the Street is thinking that if Samsung can't sell as many high-end smartphones as expected, then neither can Apple.
Unless, says Bernstein's Sacconaghi, Apple introduces new iPhones this summer.
FORTUNE -- The chart at right represents the worst case scenario for Apple's (AAPL) share of the global smartphone market, as forecast Monday by Sanford Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi.
Using Apple's own numbers for fiscal Q2, Sacconaghi calculates that iPhone sales grew 7% year over year in a sell-in basis (12% in a sell-through basis) while the overall smartphone market grew by about 36%. The MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 29, 2013 4:51 PM ET
Bernstein's Apple analyst says investors are expecting the equivalent of a 4.5% yield.
FORTUNE -- According to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple's (AAPL) top brass has been holding "widespread discussions" with key investors to get input on its plans to return more of its $137.1 billion cash hoard to shareholders.
Sacconaghi has been debriefing those investors and now thinks he has a pretty good idea of how Apple's cash management plans have MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 15, 2013 11:20 AM ET
Over the past 8 quarters, it beat its EPS estimate by 42%, revenue by 18%
FORTUNE -- When it reports its results for the March quarter this afternoon, Apple (AAPL) will also release forward-looking statements about the June quarter in the form of three numbers: its guidance for revenue, earnings and gross margin.
The numbers Apple issues tend to be laughably conservative; the company always prefers to under- rather than over-promise. Nonetheless its MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Apr 24, 2012 8:15 AM ET
And re-sold it to consumers for billions more than it paid, according to Toni Sacconaghi
The only difference between a 16 GB iPhone 4S and the 32 GB model is 16 GB of NAND flash memory, for which Apple (AAPL) charges customers $100.
But according to Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, Apple buys that memory for a heavily discounted price of $0.67 per gigabyte, or a total $10.72.
That's a pretty sweet mark-up. And an MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 6, 2012 11:39 AM ET
Bernstein's top Apple analyst joins the chorus questioning the stock's dismal valuation
Last week, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty noted that Apple's (AAPL) current stock price suggests that the market is expecting the company's earnings to grow minus 2% in perpetuity. (See here.)
In the first of a two-part series, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi on Monday drilled a little deeper into that -2% growth rate and found a series of what he calls "fantastically MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 13, 2011 7:58 AM ET
CapEx spending is up 9 fold in 3 years, the bulk on equipment for a few key suppliers
When Apple (AAPL) reports an uptick in its cash and marketable securities holdings -- up $5.4 billion to $81.6 billion last quarter -- Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi can usually be counted on to call for the company to return some of that cash to the shareholders (70% of whom happen to be institutions like MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Nov 15, 2011 8:12 AM ET
An analyst imagines everything it might be when -- and if -- it opens this spring
Among the people who follow Apple (AAPL) closely, the massive server farm the company is constructing in Maiden, N.C., has achieved near mythic status. It has become the answer to every unanswered question about Apple's troubled online strategy, from what Steve Jobs was thinking when he green-lighted Ping to how MacBook Air users are supposed MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 23, 2011 6:13 AM ET
An analyst offers four reasons nobody has managed to match Apple's iPad
"Undercutting Apple on pricing has been the de facto strategy for competitors. Surprisingly then, no competitor has yet matched Apple on tablet pricing, which begs the question of why."
So begins a note to clients issued Wednesday morning by Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi, who estimates that Apple (AAPL) may have a 750 to 975 basis point (7.5% to 9.75%) cost MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 2, 2011 11:22 AM ET
An analyst asks whether it can keep outperforming the market without paying a dividend
Toni Sacconaghi just won't give up.
For more than two years, Bernstein Research's top Apple (AAPL) analyst been after Steve Jobs to spend some of the company's growing cash hoard ($51 billion as of September), preferably on a stock buyback or cash dividend.
"Shareholder frustration," he wrote in an open letter to the board of directors in August, "is MOREPhilip Elmer-DeWitt - Dec 8, 2010 11:54 AM ET
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