By Kevin Kelleher, contributor
FORTUNE -- If a company stays on the auction block long enough, rumors about its fate will eventually begin to repeat themselves. In 2008, while Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang insisted the web giant wasn't for sale, Microsoft emerged as a suitor. Then Google got involved.
Fast forward to 2011 and here's Jerry Yang again downplaying reports of a Yahoo (YHOO) acquisition. Among the suitors is, again, Microsoft (MSFT), only this time it's reportedly bankrolling a deal by joint buyers. And as the day follows the dawn, reports followed quickly that Google (GOOG) is also interested in financing private investors looking to buy Yahoo.
There are plenty of reasons a Google-backed deal would not pan out. First, the Wall Street Journal story reporting the possibility was based on a single source -- that elusive "person familiar with the matter" -- who said that "Google may end up not pursuing a bid." Then there are the antitrust concerns: the Department of Justice shot down the 2008 search partnership Google wanted to arrange with Yahoo. The government would surely take a close look at any moves backed by Google. And then there are the strategic reasons -- or lack of them. Much of Google's future is focused on social and mobile -- and Yahoo is weaker in both.
Still, that doesn't mean there's no virtue for Google in saving Yahoo. Here are six possible scenarios in which it might actually be a good idea:
Google is throwing sand in the gears of another deal. The most cited theory is that Google wants to drive up the price for Microsoft or another bidder. A simple phone call by someone familiar with the matter to a reporter is all it would take. Yahoo's stock rose 4% Monday following the report. The risk in this move is that this slight rise in Yahoo's share price won't last long. In other words, this report would at best delay a Microsoft-backed deal. Much more likely is that Google would try to get into the Yahoo-takeover mix to give Microsoft second thoughts -- or even drive it away if it's on the fence. It could also deter smaller third parties from pursuing their own bid at all.
Google wants a bigger presence in display ads. Revenue from display ads are disappointing at Yahoo but they're growing at Google, which is making $2.5 billion a year from them. Yahoo, however, has deep relationships with the web's biggest advertisers as well as many popular sites. If putting Google's money into Yahoo could open up access to Yahoo's display customers, Google could see more display growth. Such a move would surely set off antitrust alarms.
Yahoo could bring more users to Google+. For most people, Facebook is still the go-to place to socialize with friends online. Google+ has signed up 40 million users in a few months, but that's only 5% of Facebook's 800 million active users. What Google needs is access to more active accounts -- and Yahoo still has a lot of them. Yahoo, meanwhile, is even further behind Google when it comes to having a social-networking infrastructure. Since social networks rely on big numbers of users, corralling Yahoo members into Google+ would help Google build a strong rival to Facebook.
Google wants a closer look at Yahoo. When investors enter serious takeover talks with a company, they often demand a look at its financials and performance metrics. By backing some private equity investors who might otherwise have trouble raising money, Google can have access to all that data, even if the talks eventually fall through. There may not be much of Yahoo's data that is crucial for Google to know, but there's plenty that could be helpful: How is Yahoo's search partnership with Microsoft really faring? Where is Yahoo's display business strong, and where is it weak? What insights does Yahoo have in international markets, particularly Asia? What's more, if Microsoft is involved in a takeover bid, it may have access to this same data. So why shouldn't Google have access too?
Yahoo offers Google a backdoor to China. Google's history in China is a rocky one, culminating in the company's decision to shut down its China operations last year. But one of Yahoo's strengths is its assets in China, including its 40% stake in Alibaba.
The truly speculative will consider this: If Google owned a stake in Yahoo, it would indirectly own a stake in Alibaba, one of China's Internet giants. That could offer a way back into a growing market. It could also derail any chance that Alibaba would buy Yahoo. If Jack Ma controlled Yahoo, he could undercut Google on everything from online payment fees to search and display ad rates. Far-fetched? Sure, but coincidentally or not, Google said Monday that China renewed its operating license in the country. And the former head of Google China said on Quora that Alibaba and Ma aren't suited to manage Yahoo. It's hard not to read that and think, "but Google is."
Investing in Yahoo will keep antitrust regulators off Google's back. Google may be interested in helping Yahoo to thrive to lessen its chance of becoming a search monopoly. Without Yahoo around, Google could become so powerful in search and display ads that antitrust regulators end up doing more harm than a revitalized Yahoo ever could.
There is a precedent for such a move. In 1997, Microsoft invested $150 million in a struggling Apple (AAPL). Ostensibly, the investment was to encourage Apple to install Office and Internet Explorer onto Mac computers, but it also served to keep antitrust regulators at bay. (A side note: Microsoft later sold off its Apple shares, which would be worth several billion dollars today).
Yahoo's future is unpredictable, so much so it seems like any outcome is possible at this point: A merger with AOL (AOL), a takeover by Jack Ma, a buyout by private equity firms financed in part by Microsoft, or Google, or someone else. But one thing that is growing less likely is the scenario that Jerry Yang wants -- an independent Yahoo.
What Yelp CEO Jeremy Stoppelman told the Senate antitrust panel about Google
Yelp's Stoppelman, Nextag's Katz, and former Justice Department antitrust director Thomas Barnett. Photo: AP
As feared, the Senate hearings Wednesday on "The Power of Google: Serving Customers or Threatening Competition?" barely scratched the surface.
What Google (GOOG) did to Apple (AAPL) -- copying Apple's touchscreen operating system and offering it to Apple's competitors for free -- never came up. Amy Klobuchar MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 22, 2011 7:00 AM ET
The Senate hearings scheduled for Wednesday will only scratch the surface
Source: Google
Apple (AAPL) is conspicuously absent from the witness list for Wednesday's hearing on "The Power of Google" before the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition and Consumer Rights. Yelp! and Nextag will be represented, but Google (GOOG) has stepped on a lot more toes than theirs to maintain and extend its dominance of the Internet's sustaining source of revenue MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Sep 19, 2011 7:38 AM ET
Apple's CEO will have to answer questions in a six-year-old iTunes monopoly suit
Jobs at iPad 2 event. Image: Apple Inc.
In Nov. 2010, plaintiffs in the long-running "Apple iPod iTunes Anti-Trust Litigation" class-action lawsuit asked the presiding judge for permission to depose Steve Jobs. Apple's (AAPL) lawyers promptly filed for a protective order preventing the deposition.
What happened next is a little hard to follow, since so many of the relevant MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Mar 22, 2011 7:30 AM ET
The New York Times reaches for new metaphors to illuminate the power of Apple's platform
The U.S. interstate highway system is a "platform," writes Steve Lohr in Sunday's New York Times business section. "The more that people traveled it, the more opportunity it created for businesses and towns linked to its transportation network — and the larger the market for Detroit automakers."
A Barbie doll, one of his sources suggests MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jan 30, 2011 1:20 PM ET
Questions whether the Google has abused its dominance in online search.
The European Commission launched an investigation today to discern whether Google (GOOG) "imposes exclusivity obligations on advertising partners, preventing them from placing certain types of competing ads on their websites, as well as on computer and software vendors, with the aim of shutting out competing search tools," it said in a statement this morning.
Microsoft Corp. service Ciao, price comparison site MORE
Seth Weintraub - Nov 30, 2010 9:05 AM ET
Apple is likely to duck these bullets, say two analysts, but every case increases its risk
Apple's share of the smartphone app market may be large enough to qualify as a monopoly. Source: Stifel Nicolas
Absent a "smoking gun," neither the Federal Trade Commission nor the Department of Justice is likely to take Apple (AAPL) to court for antitrust violations, according to a note to clients issued Friday by Stifel Nicolas's MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 11, 2010 10:15 AM ET
A dispute that broke out Monday has already caught the eye of antitrust regulators
Steve Jobs at WWDC
That didn't take long.
On Monday, Apple (AAPL) changed the rules that govern its new iAd mobile advertising platform to exclude competitors like Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).
On Wednesday, Google took the matter public, blasting Apple for setting "artificial barriers to competition [that] hurt users and developers and, in the long run, stall technological MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - Jun 10, 2010 7:07 AM ET
Shades of the United States vs. Microsoft, an antitrust case that the government lost
Bill Gates' 1998 deposition. Source: Groklaw
A report in Monday's New York Post that two government agencies -- the Federal Trade Commission and the Department of Justice -- are each considering launching an antitrust investigation against Apple (AAPL) puts me in mind of the case the DOJ and 20 states brought against Microsoft (MSFT) nearly a dozen MORE
Philip Elmer-DeWitt - May 3, 2010 2:10 PM ET
Consumer group wants Justice Department to break Google up or convert it into a public utility
Today the consumer advocacy group Consumer Watchdog called for a broad Department of Justice investigation into Google and significant punishments against the Mountain View, CA-based company.
The complaint paints Google's search engine monopoly, which is currently at 70% of the U.S. market, as a way to invade other businesses. "How it tweaks its proprietary search algorithms MORE
Seth Weintraub - Apr 22, 2010 2:25 PM ETEvery morning, discover the companies, deals and trends in tech that are moving markets and making headlines. SUBSCRIBE
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| Bank of America Corp... | 7.95 | -0.16 | -1.97% |
| Intel Corp | 26.73 | -0.43 | -1.58% |
| Microsoft Corp | 31.27 | -0.17 | -0.54% |
| Ford Motor Co | 12.28 | -0.25 | -2.00% |
| General Electric Co | 19.39 | 0.17 | 0.88% |
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